Naidu & Stalin Push for More Kids: Is South Being Punished for Good Governance?

"We are considering incentivising families with more children to encourage couples to expand their families," said Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister N Chandrababu Naidu on 19 October. Two days later, Tamil Nadu CM MK Stalin spoke about the potential reduction of South India’s share in parliamentary seats due to lower population growth rates: “Why not aim for 16 children?” The remarks by TDP's Naidu and DMK's Stalin—key constituents of the NDA and INDIA bloc respectively— were made within a span of 48 hours. While Naidu expressed concern over ageing population in South India, Stalin highlighted potential changes in its Lok Sabha seat representation due to the delimitation exercise set to take place in 2026.These concerns are not unfounded. India is not only experiencing a rapid decline in fertility rate but is also ageing much faster.According to a 2023 India Ageing Report prepared by the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) report and International Institute for Population Sciences (IIPS), the percentage of India's elderly population (Above 60 years) will double to over 20 percent of its total population by 2050.While India’s overall population will grow by 18 percent from 2022 to 2050, the elderly population will grow by 134 percent. Basically, in the next 26 years, one in every five persons are expected to be above 60 years of age. The impact, however, will be even more significant in the southern states. Why is this a concern? How is it affecting South India? Does the solution lie in having more children? The Quint decodes the data and speaks to experts.It is extremely important to understand that an ageing population and a smaller population are two separate issues. Addressing a gathering in Amaravati, Andhra CM Naidu said, "The growth rate in the state should increase. Everyone should think about this, and families should aim to have at least two or more children. In the past, I advocated for population control, but now we need to increase the birth rate for the future. The state government is planning to bring a law in this effect,"Andhra CM Chandrababu NaiduThis is not the first time Naidu has raised concerns. At the NITI Aayog’s ninth meeting, chaired by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, in July 2024, Naidu had spoken of the need for the states to frame their own demographic management policies.Data shows that the elderly population in the southern states— Kerala, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, and Telangana— is likely to rise by 6-7 percent of its total population between 2021 and 2036, as compared to states like Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Rajasthan, where the rise will be around 3-4 percent.'A Sword Hanging Over Us…': Why Are Southern States Opposed to Delimitation?According to the graph below, Kerala's share of the elderly is set to increase from 16.5 percent in 2021 to 22.8 percent in 2036, or a rise of over 6.3 per cent, while Tamil Nadu will increase its elderly population by 7.1 percent (From 20.8 percent from 13.7 percent) — the highest in India.But in contrast, Uttar Pradesh will see an increase from 8.1 percent of the population to 11.9 percent (a rise of 3.8 percent).Additionally, data shows that the number of elderly per 100 children (below 15 years of age) is higher in South India as compared to other regions across India. While in the south, there are 61.7 elderly persons per 100 children, in the north (Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Punjab, Uttarakhand, Haryana, Delhi, Rajasthan), the corresponding number is at 38.9. In Central region (Uttar Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh) the number is at 27.8.By 2036, the ‘Old age dependency ratio' (Number of elderly persons compared to 100 people in the working age group of 15 to 59 years) will rise to 19.4 in the south as compared to 15.2 in the north.Speaking about the smaller population in South India, MK Stalin said,"Today, as we face the possibility of fewer Lok Sabha constituencies, it raises the question: why should we limit ourselves to having fewer children? Why shouldn't we aim for 16 children?”MK Stalin A November 2019 report by a technical group on Population Projections under the Union Ministry of Health and Family Welfare states that India’s population will increase by 31.1 crore from 2011 to 2036.While almost half of the people will be added in states like Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra, Bihar, the contribution of the southern states will be only 9 percent, that is, 2.9 crore. But why? National Family Health Survey (NFHS-5) data reveals that the total fertility rate (TFR) (average number of children per woman) in South India is below the national average. (Refer to the table below)Note: At present, India’s TFR has declined to 2.0 per woman, below the replacement level of 2.1 per woman.But the 2020 data from Sample Registration System (SRS) shows that the fertility rate in Kerala, Andhra Pradesh, and Telangana was at 1.5, while in Karnataka it was 1.6, and in 1.4 in Tamil Nadu. Srinivas Goli, associate professor in demographics at the International Institute for Population Sciences (IIPS), said that low fertility rates are a "serious concern" for South Indian states "because they have serious economic, social, and political consequences for them.""It is an issue that India will have to reckon with for next coming decades and there is no end to it... Also take a look at the fertility transition. France took 285 years, England took 225 years to achieve lower rates, but India has achieved this in 45 years."For example, Andhra Pradesh achieved the Replacement Level of Fertility in 2004. Kerala was the first to achieve it in 1998, followed by Tamil Nadu in 2000. Stating that ageing is "inevitable," Dr. PM Kulkarni, a renowned demographer and retired Professor from Jawaharlal Nehru University (JNU) said,"It's just that some states like AP, Tamil Nadu, Kerala experienced this (reaching below replacement levels of TFR) earlier than the rest of the country... Therefore the growth will stop before that in other states. States like Uttar Pradesh, Bihar will continue to grow for longer time, whereas Kerala, Tamil Nadu, etc will see almost zero growth after 2040. The natural growth will become almost zero."What Is Delimitation & What Does Women's Reservation Bill Have To Do With It?According to data from the Registrar General of India (2016-2019), the life expectancy in the South was higher compared to the national average of 68.2 years. Agreeing that the concerns posed by Naidu and Stalin were valid, Dr. Kulkarni and Srinivas said that while on one side the fertility rate was dropping, on the other, life expectancy rates were going up. "Low fertility in the long run will led to chaos," said Goli. Talking about how South Indian states are "becoming older before getting richer," the demographer added,"Raising the aging burden will have a social security and economic burden and a very big disadvantage for economic growth. It will reduce support ratios and induce a more dependent population than the working-age population, thus more consumers than procedures. States are getting old before getting rich. By fertility rates, south Indian states are equivalent to any developed countries in the world but not in terms of their per capita income, standard of living, and human development indicators like health and education,"Srinivas GoliExperts told The Quint that Southern states will also lose their revenue shares from the Union government "owing to their lower populations," and have reduced parliamentary representation once delimitation takes place. "They (South India) contribute to Indian revenue incomes much more than they receive back," Goli added. This is evident by the functioning of the Finance Commission which determines how tax revenues are shared among states based on the population. This year, Uttar Pradesh received Rs 31,962 crore, the highest allocation, exceeding the combined total of Rs 28,152 crore given to the five southern states. There is also fear over delimitation. If estimates are to be believed, the Lok Sabha seats in AP will fall from 25 to 20, in Tamil Nadu from 39 to 30, in Karnataka from 28 to 26, in Kerala from 20 to 14, and in Telangana, from 17 to 15. The Complications of Delimitation and Representation in PunjabNaidu spoke about worrying trends in Europe, China and Japan, where the elderly population outnumbers the youth. "I want to tell all the women here—if you have fewer than two children, the population will decrease. In our state, the birth rate is 1.6, which is already in deficit. Many youngsters are migrating to other countries and our villages are becoming empty. Keeping this in mind, everyone must act responsibly, not just for themselves but for the country as well." Andhra CM Chandrababu NaiduBut does the solution lie in incentivising the public with pro-natalist policies? "Not at all," experts told The Quint. Dr. Kulkarni said that though countries like Japan, China, Korea, France have tried implementing this, it was unable to succeed. "Various countries have tried promoting high fertility by giving incentives, giving child support, giving longer maternity leaves, but these have made very little impact. They may raise fertility a bit but hardly above the replacement level. People will do what they want, what's is in their interest and not what the government tells them to do. So if people think they wish to have one or two children, they will do that," he said."If you want to raise fertility to prevent aging, you will do it by how much? Will it be above replacement level? That brings back the debate on high population growth," added Kulkarni. Srinivas Goli said, "No country in the world could able to succeed in this despite huge financial incentives for having children." "South Korea announced Rs. 60,000 per month per woman if she has a child. Japan, China, Singapore, most European and Oceana countries, and North America have also tried the same but failed in revoking birth rates. India is witnessing modernisation. The standard of living is going up, child care cost are going up and so are the costs of education, health, housing etc. In that case, people want to have fewer kids and invest on them. Basically there's a quality versus quantity trade-off that happens."Srinivas Goli to The QuintGoli told The Quint that these policies would receive flak from women. "We live in a patriarchal society. But you cannot ask women to have more children in today's time because they are the ones paying the price and are sacrificing."Interestingly, NFHS-5 data shows that TFR among women in urban areas declined from 2.7 in 1992-93 to 1.6 in 2019-21. "There's a change in attitude. There's increased female autonomy, more participation in the labour force, etc, so naturally, a woman cannot be going on taking care of one child after another," added Dr. Kulkarni. Srinivas Goli from IIPS opined that it is not the fault of the five southern states for "achieving better performance" on family planning. "When the United Nations started campaign for the family planning program, it was not just South India which adopted it but whole of India. When the National Population Policy was introduced, targets were uniformly given to all states. It was not given to south India and north India separately, right? It's just that the southern states adopted it religiously and with their perseverance and good governance. So, today, you are punishing them for their better performance, basically... This will have a negative impact in the future for these states,"Goli told The Quint that there was a need to strike a balance to ensure that the "better performing states" are not "punished." The associate professor believed that in addition to population size, the government should draw in other indicators while conducting the delimitation exercise."For example, in terms of political representation and delimitation, you need to look at other factors and burdens that states are sharing. Otherwise, you are creating a lot more disturbance in the federal structure of India. If there's primary health care issue in the north, there's an issue of tertiary healthcare in the South," Goli said.An earlier piece by The Quint recommended that southern states with low fertility rates should be adequately represented in the Rajya Sabha and delimitation should be pushed until states achieve population growth. Both experts The Quint spoke to believed that rather than having more children, the focus should be to frame policies catering to the elderly and to ensure that the benefits of the demographic dividend (growth in an economy that results from a change in the age structure of a country's population) and silver dividend (the potential economic and social benefits that come from an aging population) are cashed fully."What governments must do is be ready for what's going to happen. As far as aging is concerned, that is inevitable. Instead of focusing on increasing the rate or having more children, the concern should be towards ensuring benefits of the ongoing. You need to develop policies which cater to the needs of the elderly, including financial support, healthcare support, making provisions. Some countries are even trying to raise the age of retirement,"Dr. PM Kulkarni to The QuintMeanwhile, Goli believed that the only way fertility rate can be "stabilised" or "marginally increased" is through "improving gender egalitarian attributes within families where women feel secure about having kids without paying huge motherhood penalties and losing their time and personal goals." "But, in a highly patriarchal society like India, it is not easy to ensure gender egalitarianism anywhere soon," he concluded.

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Naidu & Stalin Push for More Kids: Is South Being Punished for Good Governance?

From lower fertility rate to shrinking working-age population, South India is witnessing a demographic collapse.