2023 Madhya Pradesh Elections: 5 Reasons Why Congress Lost To BJP

The BJP has swept Madhya Pradesh, continuing the two-decade long dominance in the state. As of 4 pm, the BJP was leading in 166 seats and the Congress was leading in just 63 seats.

The Congress was hoping to achieve a repeat of the 2018 assembly elections, when the party was able to clinch victory from the incumbent BJP’s hands, albeit only to lose power in 2020 when a chunk of their MLAs defected to the BJP. While Congress leader Kamal Nath had expected to avenge his short-lived government’s fall, ultimately the party seems to have failed to come even close to the BJP’s numbers.

Here are a few reasons that contributed to the Congress’ loss.

The Shivraj 'Mama' Appeal

The BJP bucked all anti-incumbency and that can largely be credited to the four-time CM’s widespread appeal and goodwill. The leader, who goes by the moniker ‘Shivraj Mama’, or maternal uncle, has over time become a household name across the state.

In the first leg of the elections, the BJP had evidently seemed to sideline Chouhan, with PM Modi conducting several rallies in the state. ‘MP ke mann mein Modi, Modi ke mann mein MP’ was the most oft-heard slogan in the state by the BJP, and the party refused to announce Chouhan as the CM-candidate, or even suggest as much.

However, in the last two weeks, the party appeared to amend its strategy, with Chouhan taking center-stage in the campaigning. The Ladli Behna Yojana, which is a financial welfare scheme for women of the state, was immensely popular and seen as a Chouhan brainchild. It then won’t be wrong to attribute the BJP’s win to Chouhan’s appeal, something that the Congress failed to put enough of a fight to.

Kamal Nath's Lack of Mass Appeal

While BJP never really posed Chouhan as a CM candidate, it was clear from day one that Kamal Nath is the face of Congress’ campaign. While the party mostly focused on local issues— something that has worked in its favor in states like Karnataka and Himachal Pradesh — Nath clearly failed to mobilise voters on those. Moreover, the former CM does not have either a loyal caste-based vote-bank, nor does he have strong regional support outside of Chhindwara, from where he has been elected as an MP multiple times.

The leader also ran a mostly one-man-show, not involving either much of the cadre, or even the Congress strategists involved in other states, like Sunil Kanugolu, who was pivotal in helping the party clinch victory in Telangana and before that, Karnataka.

Soft Hindutva Fails to Impress

In Madhya Pradesh, the Congress party left no stone unturned to adopt soft Hindutva approach, stronger than it has in any state previously. From celebrating the foundation of the Ram Temple in Ayodhya, to branding his image as an ardent Hanuman Bhakt, Kamal Nath was very clear on his pro-Hindu stance.

Then, months ahead of the elections, the Congress joined hands with the Bajrang Sena, a right-wing outfit that has previously campaigned for the BJP extensively. The party also tried to lure jilted temple priests promising them better land rights.

Attempting to lure traditional BJP vote banks, such as pujaris, was always going to be an uphill task. The ambitious plan of the Congress evidently fell short, and may in fact have helped the BJP by bringing out their strong-Hindutva in contrast. For instance, in Dewas, which was one of the primary places where Congress attempted its pujari-outreach, the BJP candidate is leading by over twenty five thousand votes, a massive margin.

The Scindia Factor

With 34 seats, the Gwalior-Chambal region is seen as immensely important in determining which party will rise to power in the state. In Gwalior, the BJP is leading on all its 21 seats, heading towards a near clean sweep. In Chambal, BSP and Congress are leading in a few of the 13 seats while BJP is heading in others. As opposed to this, in 2018, when Scindia was still with the Congress, the party won 26 of the 34 seats. The Gwalior-Chambal region has been Jyotiraditya Scindia’s stronghold for a long time now, and his departure into the BJP in 2020 along with his 22 loyalist MLAs is evidently turning out to be a factor that worked against the Congress.

Weak State Organisation

The Congress doesn’t have the strongest organisation in Madhya Pradesh. This can party be attributed to the fact that the BJP has enjoyed continuous power since 2003, barring the fifteen months it sat out of power after the 2018 elections. Thus, the party's cadre is well-entrenched, and thus difficult to compete with. The Congress' organisation suffered further in 2020, when Scindia jumped ship to the join the BJP, and took with him the chunk of cadre loyal to him and his 22 MLAs.