How Accurate Were the Chhattisgarh Exit Poll Results in 2018 Assembly Election?

Chhattisgarh: Check what the prominent exit polls had predicted in 2018, and whether they matched the final results.

The final results of the Chhattisgarh Assembly elections 2023 will only come in on Counting Day, 3 December, but as polling concludes, different pollsters and news channels are releasing their exit poll results.

Exit polls are usually seen as an indicator of polling trends. Sometimes, they have proven to be in sync with the final results, but on other occasions, they have ended up being inaccurate.

So, how accurate were the exit polls in the previous Chhattisgarh Assembly election, in 2018?

Here's what the prominent exit polls had predicted in 2018. Let's take a look at the numbers before we get down to the detailed analysis.

Poll-by-Poll Analysis: Who Got It Right, Who Was off the Mark?

Times Now's CNX and Republic's Jan ki Baat were completely wrong as they predicted BJP emerging as the single largest party; overestimating their haul, and Congress coming in second; underestimating their haul. Jan ki Baat was right in their prediction of JCC+ winning 5 seats.

Republic's CVoter was accurate in forecasting that Congress would emerge as the single largest party but underestimated their haul and overestimated BJP's haul.

India Today's Axis my India was accurate in their predictions for Congress and BJP's tallies but overestimated BJP's tally by giving it a range between 21-31 seats.

NewsX's Neta was completely off in their predictions as they gave BJP 43 seats and Congress 40 seats when they actually won 15 and 68 seats respectively.

ABP News' CSDS was completely wrong in their forecast as they predicted BJP emerging as the single largest party with a huge majority of 52 seats and Congress in second place with 35 seats.

Today's Chanakya and News Nation was right in their forecast of Congress becoming the majority party but overestimated the haul of BJP.

India TV got it wrong as they predicted BJP winning majority of the seats and Congress winning around 32-38 seats. They were right in forecasting the number of seats that JCC+ and Others would win.

So out of the nine exit polls we looked at, five got it wrong as they predicted BJP to emerge as the single largest party. Four were accurate but overestimated the number of seats won by BJP.

Overall, the contradictions in the results of the different polls in Chhattisgarh 2018 meant that there was no clear, unanimous pick that came through the exit polls that year.

Will the exit polls get it right in 2023? None of us will have the answer to that question till 3 December! But do tune in to The Quint on Chhattisgarh's Counting Day as we get you the answer to that question, and much more, with live news, updates and election results analysis.