Women’s Quota Push & Delimitation Concerns Leave Opposition Cornered

The bill has put the Opposition in a fix with non-NDA parties yet to agree on a unified strategy.

And once again, the Opposition is scrambling for a unified strategy to counter the googly bowled by the Modi government, even as the session’s agenda raises apprehensions of a pernicious ploy to benefit the BJP.

(Photo: Vibhushita Singh/The Quint)

The three-day special session of Parliament slated to begin on 16 April is vintage Modi government standard operating procedure. Bamboozle the Opposition and win a parliamentary seal of approval for an agenda it hopes will reap political dividends for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).

Think Article 370 and the manner in which the Modi government bulldozed its repeal through Parliament in 2019. It happened despite the Opposition’s, particularly the Congress party’s, misgivings, fulfilling a long-pending core Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS)-BJP demand. 

A similar scenario seems to be unfolding with the decision to summon a special session of Parliament bang in the middle of high-voltage assembly elections in which two important states, West Bengal and Tamil Nadu, have yet to vote. The agenda for the session has raised apprehensions of a pernicious ploy to benefit the BJP.

And once again, the Opposition is scrambling for a unified strategy to counter the googly bowled by the Modi government, even as the session’s agenda raises apprehensions of a pernicious ploy to benefit the BJP.

Fast-Tracking Women’s Quota for 2029 & Delimitation

The 16 April special session has a two-fold agenda. It has been summoned ostensibly to amend the Women’s Reservation Bill (passed in 2023) to time its implementation with the 2029 Lok Sabha election. 

However, the fine print includes a contentious issue: delimitation. Bypassing established norms of redrawing constituency boundaries on the basis of the latest census, the government has proposed to de-link it from the ongoing census, which began on 1 April this year and enforce an arbitrary 50 percent increase in Parliament seats across states. 

In effect, the number of seats in the Lok Sabha will jump from 542 to 813, which Opposition leaders fear is a pernicious design to hand the BJP a clear advantage by skewing numbers in Parliament in favour of the northern states where the party dominates. As a senior Opposition leader pointed out, the northern states will see an increase of around 200 seats while the South, governed largely by opposition parties, will benefit by a paltry 65 seats. 

The political benefits the BJP hopes to derive from the twin moves are obvious. The women’s quota bill is being pushed before West Bengal votes with an eye on chief minister Mamata Banerjee’s loyal female base. The BJP must dent it to defeat her. 

At the same time, Opposition leaders believe that women’s reservation is not just an election ploy. It is being used as a shield to surreptitiously push a delimitation exercise that will give the BJP an unassailable edge in Parliament, a senior Opposition leader said.

Redrawing Power

The Opposition is in a quandary even as apprehensions mount about the government’s motivation. vcnvn

On the one hand, it cannot be seen to be opposing the fast forwarding of the implementation of the women’s quota. On the other hand, all of them have serious misgivings about the cavalier manner in which the important issue of delimitation is being handled.

 Although delimitation has profound implications for the future of representative democracy, there has been no attempt by the government for prior consultation or discussion to sound out political parties and evolve a consensus.

In fact, the manner in which the powers-that-be have gone about it has only deepened mistrust and widened the gulf between the BJP and the Opposition. 

The reshaping of the electoral map is a particularly sensitive matterfor the southern states, which have been voicing concerns about a disproportionate increase of representation for the more populous northern states.

Prominent leaders like Tamil Nadu chief minister MK Stalin of the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) have termed it "punishment" for the South’s successful birth control measures to manage population growth. 

The Opposition’s apprehensions about the government’s motives are not unfounded. For instance, the decision to call a special session of Parliament in the midst of important state elections was taken unilaterally by the government. It was communicated almost as an order via a terse WhatsApp message. No party was sounded out for dates or convenience. 

The message was short on details. It contained just the bare bones of the agenda. The amendments that will be put to vote are yet to be circulated for Opposition parties to study and understand despite the gravity of the issues at stake and the long-term implications for the institution of Parliament.

After the message came a letter from Prime Minister Narendra Modi. That too, was short on details but long on rhetoric as he sought support to amend the Women’s Reservation Bill so that it can come into effect for the 2029 general election.

Numbers, Timing, and the BJP’s Advantage

The Opposition’s response so far has been to seek postponement of the session till after 29 April, when polling ends in West Bengal and Tamil Nadu. It has also called for an all-party meeting to discuss the issues at stake instead of rushing the process without wider consultations. 

In fact, many in the Opposition are suspicious about the timing of the session. The dates 16-18 April will disrupt campaign schedules in West Bengal and Tamil Nadu, and make it difficult for TMC and DMK MPs to attend in full strength. A TMC leader express worries that their party will hesitate to pull out all its 42 MPs (TMC strength in both Houses) at the peak of electioneering to attend the special session.

The Opposition’s mistrust of the government’s motives is not entirely unfounded.

The amendments to fast forward implementation of the Women’s Bill and start the delimitation process are constitutional amendments. This means two-thirds of the members of each House have to be present and voting.

While the government probably has sufficient numbers to get the amendments cleared in the Rajya Sabha, it’s a different story in the Lok Sabha. For the Lower House to approve the amendments, the government needs support from the Opposition. If TMC and DMK MPs are unable to attend because of election commitments, the numbers become easier for the government to manage. 

The Congress Working Committee has already decided to oppose the bills, not just because of the surreptitious manner in which the contentious issue of delimitation is being handled, but also because there is no clarity from the government on whether the ongoing census will include a caste headcount as promised by the government before last year’s Bihar polls. Caste census is a pet issue for Rahul Gandhi and he is determined to stir up a storm in Parliament on this. 

However, the Opposition can only spoil the government’s party if it is present in full strength, particularly in the Lok Sabha, where its numbers will matter. The Congress has called a meeting of opposition parties on 15 April. Can it prevail on friends and allies to block the government move?

(Arati R Jerath is a Delhi-based senior journalist. She tweets @AratiJ. This is an opinion piece and the views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for the same.)