How the New CDS Could Shape the Race for India’s Next Army Chief

Oddly, Lt Gen Raja Subramani has served directly under the current Chief of the Army Staff, writes David Devadas.

Lt Gen Raja Subramani is not only highly decorated, but also among the most well respected officers in the contemporary Indian Army.

(Photo: Kamran Akhtar/The Quint)

The appointment of Lt Gen Raja Subramani as the next Chief of Defence Staff (CDS) is most welcome. He is not only highly decorated, but also among the most well-respected officers in the contemporary Indian Army.

What is interesting though is that Subramani will take over as CDS on 30 May, a month before Gen Upendra Dwivedi, the current Chief of the Army Staff (COAS), is set to retire. This is odd.

For, since Subramani became Vice Chief of the Army Staff right after Dwivedi took over as COAS on 30 June 2024, he served directly under Dwivedi for the last year of his tenure in the Army.

Not just that, he is also junior to both Air Chief Marshal AP Singh and Navy chief Dinesh Tripathi. The latter is to retire the day after Subramani takes charge as CDS, but AP Singh only retires in October 2027.

Now, Subramani will not only have the same rank (full General) as the three chiefs; he will also have protocol seniority. Indeed, as CDS, he will chair the Chiefs of Staff Committee, and will function as the Secretary (Military Affairs) in the Ministry of Defence—the interface between the chiefs and the government.

Since both Dwivedi and Singh were commissioned a full year before Subramani, they would have treated his batch as subordinates when all three of them were trainees at the National Defence Academy.

If it wished to avoid awkwardness for at least Dwivedi, the government could have left the post of CDS vacant, as it had done—for no less than nine months—before it appointed the incumbent CDS, Gen Anil Chauhan.

Alternatively, it could have given Chauhan an extension of one month, so that he would retire along with Dwivedi. Chauhan’s conclusion of term on 30 May 2026 seems odd as it is neither his birthday nor the last day of the month.

The Timing is Intriguing

By bringing Subramani to that post a month before Dwivedi retires, the government has empowered Subramani to handle the file regarding Dwivedi’s successor. Unless the Cabinet approves a name before 30 May, Subramani could have a key say when names are discussed.

That Lt Gen Dhiraj Seth, the seniormost of the next level of officers, has been brought to Army Headquarters as Vice Chief since 1 April 2026, would suggest that he is tipped to take over as COAS.

However, his predecessor as Vice Chief—Lt Gen Pushpendra Pal Singh, who became the Western Army Commander-in-chief on 1 April—could also be in the running. So could Lt Gen Pratik Sharma, who is Commander-in-chief, Northern Command. He has earlier been Deputy Chief (Strategy), was the DGMO, and has commanded a Strike Corps.

Gen Seth, who had for long been highly rated by fellow-officers, caused eyebrows to be raised when he stood beside Maharashtra Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis in a jeep driven by a Major General during a guard of honour which Fadnavis reviewed while Seth was the Commander-in-chief of the Pune-based Southern Command. It was widely felt that such a high-profile honour ought only to be given to the President, who is the Commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces, or at most, to the Prime Minister or Defence Minister of the country.

Who is finally chosen as the next COAS might depend to some extent on how the government views what happened during Operation Sindoor last May, and the preceding bloodbath at Pahalgam on 22 April 2025.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi took personal charge of strategy on 9 May 2025, at the height of Operation Sindoor, and gave orders after prolonged discussions that day with a number of retired officers of the three Forces, including former chiefs. The incumbent chiefs were apparently not at the meeting with retired officers.

A string of Pakistani airfields were destroyed early the next morning, after which top US officials got involved in defusing the conflict.

Much Speculation

For decades, the norm of promoting the seniormost officer as COAS was largely followed. However, the surprise elevation of Gen Bipin Rawat to the top post in the Army over the heads of two excellent officers who were senior to him in December 2016 has fuelled speculation every time an Army Chief has subsequently been appointed.

There was much speculation that Lt Gen Ranbir Singh would be the new chief when Gen Rawat’s term ended. On the other hand, there was talk of an input from the RSS when Gen MM Naravane, who was the seniormost, got the job. Gen Naravane performed quite well. Thereafter, there was much speculation over whether Gen Manoj Pande, who was the seniormost, or Lt Gen Jai Nain, would be promoted when Gen Naravane retired. When Gen Pande retired, some believed that Lt Gen AK Singh would be promoted rather than Gen Dwivedi.

In fact, it was said that some senior officers had made it known that they would not accept another supersession. The disappointing result for the ruling party in the Lok Sabha polls, just a little before the decision was to be announced, may have contributed to the choice of the senior-most officer in 2024. Some observers presumed, thereafter, that Gen AK Singh would be appointed as the next CDS.

Why the Delay in CDS Appointments Matters

The post of CDS remained vacant for months after Gen Rawat, the first CDS, was killed in a helicopter crash on 8 December 2021. At first, some speculated that the job was being kept open for Naravane when he retired in April 2022, but the post was finally given to Gen Chauhan on 28 September that year.

Chauhan had retired as Eastern Army Commander at the end of May 2021. So, he had served for almost a year-and-a-half under Naravane’s leadership. His appointment in succession to Rawat provoked some wags to joke about a "Garhwal reservation".

Some thought that Lt Gen Devraj Anbu ought to have been given the job when Gen Rawat was killed. Anbu had been an excellent Vice Chief under Rawat, and was the sort of quiet but efficient administrator that is required as CDS, since the CDS’s main responsibility is as Secretary (Military Affairs), and not in the field.

Indeed, Anbu would have become chief if two officers had not been superseded for Rawat’s appointment. Then, Anbu would have had to consolidate the advances the Army might have achieved under Lt Gen Praveen Bakshi, who was the seniormost officer when Rawat was appointed instead. The second officer who was superseded, Lt Gen PM Hariz, may have made a very good CDS.

Another officer who could have been a top-class CDS (instead of Chauhan in this case) is Lt Gen BS Raju, who retired as Commander-in-chief of the Rajasthan-based Southwestern Command, after he had earlier served as Vice Chief, DGMO, Srinagar Corps Commander, and head of the Indian Army’s training unit in Sikkim.

Now that all that is water under the bridge, however, it is up to Gen Subramani to make a difference.

(The writer is the author of ‘The Story of Kashmir’ and ‘The Generation of Rage in Kashmir’. He can be reached at @david_devadas. This is an opinion piece and the views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for the same.)