The MVA Sob Story

In Marathi, there is a saying, bajarat turi, bhat bhatnila mari, i.e., before the thing has even happened, there is a quarrel over how to share the spoils. The MVA serves as a good example of this.

(Photo: PTI)

It was a fortnight ago.

We were checking up on the Mahayuti's status ahead of the Maharashtra Assembly elections with a senior BJP leader, who, on previous occasions, was dead right on poll assessments.

“We are winning," he remarked confidently.

What he was driving at was the fact that the BJP pulled out all the stops since the reverses in Maharashtra in the Lok Sabha polls, and its single-minded focus was to win in the Assembly polls come what may.

The BJP, the Shiv Sena, and the NCP worked as a team and recovered within five months. In retrospect, the Lok Sabha setback proved to be a blessing in disguise for the Mahayuti.

Ajit Pawar has attributed one of the main reasons for the alliance's landslide victory to the introduction of the Ladki Bahin Yojana (initiated by him as the state's finance minister). "Our sisters have made us win."

The opposition MVA was taken aback by the measure that became the talking point all over the state in no time, with women queueing up in large numbers to enrol in the Rs 1500 monthly scheme.

It was too late for the MVA to announce the Mahalakshmi scheme to provide Rs 3000 to women per month. The horse had bolted by the time the announcement came. One in hand is worth two in the bush.

But one scheme alone surely cannot determine such a decisive outcome.

In Marathi, there is a saying, bajarat turi, bhat bhatnila mari, i.e., before the thing has even happened, there is a quarrel over how to share the spoils. The MVA serves as a good example of this.

After the Lok Sabha polls, Uddhav Thackeray came to New Delhi to lobby with the Congress high command to be projected as the CM candidate. He was not successful.

Patole, being the trusted man of Rahul Gandhi, saw himself as the CM, but there were some half a dozen Congress leaders who felt likewise. Most of these CM hopefuls, including Yashomati Thakur, Balasaheb Thorat, and Prithviraj Chavan, were defeated in the polls.

At one time during the seat-sharing talks, there was so much ill will between Patole and the Shiv Sena leaders that the Congress high command had to tell Balasaheb Thorat to lead the negotiations instead of the former.

Shiv Sena’s lack of political savvy during the seat-sharing talks to ‘grab’ as many seats as possible left a bad taste in the mouth of the Congress. For example, the Shiv Sena secured Solapur, much against the wishes of the Congress, a seat which has in the past been represented by party veteran Sushilkumar Shinde as well as his daughter Praniti Shinde for several terms.

The contest was to get more seats than the Congress, not to defeat the Mahayuti. Pathetic.

Equally, the Congress, which was expected to strengthen the MVA after their success in the Lok Sabha polls, was perceived as greedy for the CM post. The infighting sent the wrong message to the people.

Amidst all of this, 84-year-old Sharad Pawar looked helpless, putting up the structures of his own dilapidated party brick by brick in constituencies held by his NCP where the MLAs had migrated to Ajit Pawar's party.

On the other hand, the Mahatuti played with perfect line and length on this issue, going with Eknath Shinde as the CM face.

What also created a problem for Uddhav and his Sena was the BJP puncturing their Hindutva by projecting them as "pro-Muslim" in the company of the Congress.

Fadnavis blaming “vote jihad" for the BJP’s poor show in the state during the Lok Sabha polls was a pointer, i.e., a “particular community" cast its vote unitedly to defeat “Hindutvawadi" candidates in at least 14 out of 48 LS constituencies.

Curiously, the Maratha reservation issue, which went against the BJP-led Mahayuti in the Lok Sabha elections, became redundant in the Assembly polls held five months on. The Opposition was really banking on this issue.

But the Mahayuti gained in Marathwada, and even Western Maharashtra and Northern Maharashtra, defeating the three MVA parties in these three regions comfortably.

Additionally, Uddhav Thackeray's Marathi plank did not work in Mumbai and Thane due to a split in the Marathi votes between his Shiv Sena, Eknath Shinde's Shiv Sena, and Raj Thackeray's MNS.

The MVA has complained that the Maharashtra results are "inexplicable," "unacceptable,” and “not to their expectations”. It must be admitted despite the shortcomings of the MVA that the fight in Maharashtra looked like a neck-and-neck affair to most political observers.

Reporters who went on the ground and toured extensively did not see such a wave in favour of the Mahayuti. Not even the wildest of the exit polls indicated such a hurricane.

Only time will tell whether there was anything more than meets the eye.

(Sunil Gatade is a former Associate Editor of the Press Trust of India. Venkatesh Kesari is an independent journalist. This is an opinion article and the views expressed are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for them.)