Bihar Verdict: BJP Grabs Key to Power in Nitish Kumar’s Last Hurrah

Nitish Kumar should not expect that the BJP largesse in letting him stay on as Bihar CM will have no expiry date.

Even without JD(U), the BJP can cross the halfway mark of 122 in the Bihar Assembly—with its total strength 243—with the help of these three small yet trusted allies within the NDA.

(Photo: Aroop Mishra/The Quint) 

Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar can yet again believe he’s destiny’s child as he wins his fifth straight election. In a victory that sent the Opposition to the periphery of the Bihar politics, Nitish may wear the crown again. But as an astute politician, he would also be reading the writing on the wall—the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) can now pull the strings at will, anytime, to spring a surprise.

The Bihar verdict not just decimated the Opposition, the Mahagathbandhan (MGB), but caught hold of Nitish's jugular—his ability to demonstrate extreme political flexibility, swinging from one pole to another at will like a yogi flexing postures—in a vice grip. The Opposition’s combined strength, likely to be 28, denies Nitish Kumar the luxury of going for a discreet stroll a few meters away, for a cup of tea at the residence of Rabri Devi.

For Nitish, Cushion Comforts but Future Imperfect

The BJP, with the likelihood of winning 95 Assembly seats—the best ever haul for the saffron outfit—is smelling the fragrance of power in Bihar.

Chirag Paswan, the self-proclaimed Hanuman of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, with 19 seats for his Lok Jan Shakti Party (Ram Vilas), along with the Hindustani Awam Morcha (HAM), and the Rashtriya Lok Samta Party (RLSP) and their nine seats, offer the BJP the comfort of dreaming of a potential chief minister from its own ranks.

Even without Nitish's Janata Dal (United) (JD(U)), the BJP can cross the halfway mark of 122 in the Bihar Assembly—with its total strength 243—with the help of these three small yet trusted allies within the NDA.

BJP insiders argue that the Bihar mandate is for PM Modi and CM Nitish Kumar.

They also dismiss the prospects of a new face in Bihar’s hot seat. The BJP leaders insist that the party will abide by unequivocal assertions of the PM and the Union Minister for Home Affairs, Amit Shah, that “there’s no vacancy for the post of CM in Bihar.”

Yet, the BJP, per recent records, feasts on its allies. Maharashtra and Haryana in recent years remind the BJP’s wont of exacting a cost on allies as the saffron outfit remains ruthless in its pursuit in expansion of influence.

Nitish Kumar would not expect that the BJP largesse in letting him stay as CM of the state would have no expiry date.

The Bihar CM would have to tactfully count the strength of the JD(U) in the Lok Sabha as an insurance for his position in Patna. The Modi-led NDA government at the Centre at present is a coalition government after the 2025 Lok Sabha verdict removed the BJP’s high grounds of having its own majority in the lower house of Parliament.

With the BJP in the near future banking on the support of its allies for the 2027 President of India election, the saffron outfit may have to restrain its killer instinct to eat up its allies. It is thus likely that the party will not seek turbulence within the NDA right now.

Saffron Reading of Verdict: An Assertive BJP in Patna

An assertive BJP in Patna is, in all likelihood, on the anvil. Insiders assert that the BJP will play a significant role in running the affairs of Bihar. The message may be decoded to mean that the ministers from the ranks of the BJP will listen more to New Delhi than the Chief Minister. It may also mean that Nitish Kumar could be a shadow of his past in the new government that will be formed.

The BJP leaders’ assessment of the Bihar verdict holds cues to future political possibilities in the state. They believe that the NDA in the 2025 elections in Bihar offered an invincible social coalition.

The BJP’s core vote base of the upper caste, the JD(U)’s extremely backward caste voters, the Mahadalit and Dalit vote bases of the HAM and Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas), along with the Kushwahas of the RLSP, shut down the MGB's bid to knock on Patna's doors of power.

For the BJP leaders, Modi as the national leader and Nitish as the face of the NDA gave assurance to the voters that development and welfarism will be protected. They note that the image of Nitish and his ability to transfer votes to alliance partners was instrumental in BJP winning the largest ever number of seats in the state. The BJP’s briefing on the verdict message may sober the saffron instincts to thrive at the expense of the allies.

A Test of Acumen Ahead

The Bihar verdict has made it evidently clear that Nitish Kumar will have to reinvent himself. Even while the word on the street says that the people blessed him with an extraordinary electoral success, this election could possibly be the last for Nitish as the face of his party and the alliance.

At 74, the CM’s health often invites scrutiny. As a self-claimed heir to the political probity of Karpuri Thakur, Nitish Kumar reiterated why he never promoted the politics of dynasty during the campaign trails.    

He will face the twin challenges of finding his political heir within the existing ranks of the JD(U) in the course of the next few years. At the same time, Nitish will seek to tactfully bank on his New Delhi pivot in giving stability to the Modi government to assert his leadership in the Bihar government.

With the BJP currently busy writing the script for the 2029 Lok Sabha elections and re-assessing its tactics—as the politics of aspiration projected through the 'development' plank is fast losing sheen—Nitish Kumar has time on his side. Time to reinvent himself and his party so that it can do business with an assertive saffron outfit.

The Bihar verdict is pregnant with possibilities. All eyes would now be on the political acumen of this 'destiny's child' of Bihar—Nitish Kumar.

(Author is a senior Delhi-based journalist with over two decades spent in reporting on Indian politics for several leading English dailies.