With no exception, pollsters have predicted a clean win for the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in the Bihar Assembly elections 2025—endorsing street views that the “Jungle Raj” theme of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and “Das Hazariya” (Rs 10,000 direct benefit transfer to women) by the Nitish Kumar-led state government built an impregnable castle for the Mahagathbandhan (MGB) to demolish.
Predictions of Bihar exit polls, however, must be read with cautious discretion. In the past, they have proved to be wrong—not to forget the 2020 Bihar Assembly elections when the NDA scraped through narrowly. Distinctive regional political profiles within Bihar have tested the skills of political pundits and pollsters alike.
Memories of 'Jungle Raj'
If the pollsters have indeed hit the bull’s eye this time, come Friday, 14 November, when the actual verdict arrives, the NDA will once again smile at the expense of the political exploitation of “Jungle Raj.”
Prime Minister Narendra Modi led the BJP’s campaign machinery in Bihar with a pointed attack on the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), reviving memories of the state of lawlessness in Bihar during the tenures of Lalu Prasad Yadav and Rabri Devi as Chief Minister.
Modi stoked fear among the electorate of Bihar by asserting that the days of lawlessness will return if the MGB is voted to power. The BJP’s campaign machinery dug out the old files to unleash an avalanche of audio-visual campaigns about the “Jungle Raj.”
The pollsters, in their analysis of the basis on which they have made their projections of seats for the NDA and the MGB, have argued that a sharp polarisation of the upper castes, Economically Backward Class (EBCs), Scheduled Castes (SCs), and non-Yadav backward castes took place in favour of the NDA.
This argument is directly linked to the anti-"Jungle Raj" campaign, which fell back on the time-tested social chasm in Bihar—EBCs and Dalits fearing the politically assertive Muslim-Yadav equation.
They raised the volume on claims that “Jungle Raj” meant the land grab of the weaker sections of society. Land is an emotional asset for many in Bihar, for a large number of the population in the state bank on their small holdings for subsistence farming.
With Tejashwi Yadav, former deputy Chief Minister, leader of the RJD and a Yadav scion, projected as the CM face for MGB, the BJP top guns stepped up the pressure on “Jungle Raj” theme. A subtle message was passed on that Tejashwi Yadav’s identity is linked to the Lalu-Rabri legacy of “Jungle Raj.”
Yet Another Modi Blitz
Meanwhile, the BJP has yet again banked on a Modi blitz in Bihar.
The PM has for years yearned to be an undisputed leader of Bihar, once seen nationally as the laboratory of social justice politics. It was in Patna that Nitish Kumar had cancelled a dinner for the BJP leaders on account of his opposition to Modi in 2013.
That was a time when Nitish wore his secular colours brightly, and also nursed an ambition to play a bigger role in national politics and the BJP’s aggressive advertisement of Modi holding hands with Nitish had angered the Bihar CM.
But the seeming exigencies of politics afterwards brought Modi and Nitish together. Since becoming the PM, Modi had already hit half a century with his visits to Bihar by the time he warmed up to electioneering in the state for the 2025 polls. This time investment in Bihar has been bearing visible political dividends.
Unlike Uttar Pradesh where the BJP received a political jolt in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, Bihar still voted for Modi despite sending subtle warnings by reducing victory margins of the candidates of the saffron outfit.
BJP Remained on its Toes: Internal Surveys & Course Corrections
In the run up to the elections, the BJP top brass carefully read dispatches from the grounds through multiple surveys. The youth anger against the NDA government was noted. The BJP ranks had been angry with the top brass favouring dynasts in ticket distributions in the 2020 Assembly elections. The BJP’s state faces, two deputy chief ministers in Bihar, commanded limited appeal among the people. Unemployment emerged as a big warning in the dispatches.
The course corrections came in the form of the BJP greenlighting Nitish to go the whole hog with freebies—free electricity units, unemployment allowances, raising monthly pension, enhancing allowances for Anganwadi workers. But the mother of freebies came closer to the date of the announcement of the polling days with the Bihar government giving its nod to a proposal to transfer Rs 10,000 each to almost 13.5 million women (Jeevika Didis), with a promise that those who launched successful businesses will get additional funding of Rs 2 lakh each.
The transfer of the amount in the bank accounts was planned in such a way that women received the amount in batches through the course of weeks while Bihar was in the midst of electioneering. This scheme earned the street term of “Das Hazariya Chunao".
Internally, the BJP backed its disgruntled cadres by fielding a large number of young faces. To not leave any gaps, the party brought its full election machinery to Bihar, with MPs from other states manning districts.
The SIR Debate
In the backdrop of the Congress' 'Vote Chori' campaign against the BJP, the predictions of pollsters spotlight the role of the special intensive revision (SIR) of the electoral roll in Bihar—just ahead of the Assembly elections.
A whopping 65 lakh voters dropped out of Bihar’s electoral roll. Record voters’ turnouts in the two phases, 67 percent, have already stunned political pundits.
Visuals of trains packed with migrants returning to Bihar for Chhath may resonate with record voting. Did many of them stay back in Bihar to vote? Did they stay back for far longer duration, even at the loss of incomes? Bihar’s final voting turnout may agitate observers for days, which for some has come out as unprecedented. A closer reading of the data might well be the order of the day.
(The author is a senior Delhi-based journalist, with over two decades of reporting in Indian politics for India’s leading English dailies.This is an opinion piece, and the views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for the same.)