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Why India Must ‘Win Back’ Sri Lanka Before China Casts Its Spell

Will Sri Lanka follow an ‘India First’ policy with regard to its strategic security?

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The stunning results of the parliamentary elections in Sri Lanka on 5 August are likely to break the prophecy of President Junius Jayewardene – in whose term, his party United National Party’s (UNP) victory of 5/6ths majority, resulted in the constitution of 1978 – that no mortal will be able to dismantle it.

In the Proportional Representation system, a two-thirds majority is deemed unlikely if not impossible. The newly-minted Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP), under two-time former President and three times former Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapaksa, has achieved that feat by winning 18 of 22 districts with nearly three times more votes than its nearest rival Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB), a breakaway faction of the UNP.

That SLPP would win the election was never in doubt after it swept local elections in 2018 and the landslide election of President of Gotabaya Rajapaksa, Mahinda’s younger brother, in 2019. Another Rajapaksa brother, Basil, who strategised the election, had predicted 130 seats –– but Mahinda was confident of cobbling the two-thirds number to install a strong government to replace the ‘revolving door’ system.

Even the parliamentary success in 2010, after winning the war against the militant Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) in 2009, was not as astounding as the present achievement.
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