Pakistan’s chances of qualifying for the 2023 ICC World Cup semi-finals were slim before the commencement of Friday’s (27 October) match against South Africa. Now, following an agonising one-wicket defeat, it has further reduced considerably.
But can they still make it to the top four? The answer is yet, but it will take a miracle and a half. Or perhaps, a dozen.
Let’s put on our maths whiz capes.
Where Do Pakistan Currently Stand?
Before we get into the permutations and combinations, it is important to know Pakistan’s current status. Babar Azam’s team is currently sixth in the points table, with two wins in six games.
Pakistan’s Remaining Fixtures
The green shirts will now take on Bangladesh on 31 October, in Kolkata’s Eden Gardens. They’ll then travel to Bengaluru to take on New Zealand, before returning to Kolkata to face England.
How Can Pakistan Still Qualify?
First things first, Pakistan need to win all of their remaining three matches. This will take them to 10 points, following which they need to hope the results of other matches work out in their favour.
Now, let’s understand what the other teams’ results should be, for Pakistan to qualify for the semi-final:
Australia
Current Status – 6 points from 5 matches
Remaining Matches – New Zealand, England, Afghanistan, Bangladesh
What Pakistan need them to do – Considering Pakistan’s poor net run rate, Australia need to lose at least three of their remaining four matches. Two defeats, and three consecutive Pakistan wins, will see both teams tied at 10 points. With New Zealand having already accumulated 8 points, Pakistan would prefer Australia to lose against England, Afghanistan and Bangladesh.
Sri Lanka
Current Status – 4 points from 5 matches
Remaining Matches – Afghanistan, India, Bangladesh, New Zealand
What Pakistan need them to do – Lose at least two of their last four matches. Should they lose to India and New Zealand, who are among the top three teams, Pakistan would ideally want Sri Lanka to beat Afghanistan.
Afghanistan
Current Status – 4 points from 5 matches
Remaining Matches – Sri Lanka, Netherlands, Australia, South Africa
What Pakistan need them to do – Like Sri Lanka, they too must lose two matches.
Bangladesh
Current Status – 2 points from 5 matches
Remaining Matches – Netherlands, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Australia
What Pakistan need them to do – The Tigers will only reach 8 points if the first criteria – that is, Pakistan winning all of their last three matches – are met. Hence, they’ll subsequently be out of the semi-final reckoning.
England
Current Status – 2 points from 5 matches
Remaining Matches – India, Australia, Netherlands, Pakistan
What Pakistan need them to do – Like Bangladesh, England too are yet to face Pakistan, and will only reach 8 points if they lose that match.
Netherlands
Current Status – 2 points from 5 matches
Remaining Matches – Bangladesh, Afghanistan, England, India
What Pakistan need them to do – Lose at least one of their remaining four matches.
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