A record number of five Indian chess players competed at the 2024 Candidates Tournament, across the two sections – open and women’s. With 12 of the 14 rounds being played, a couple from the quintet is in the fray to become the champion – Dommaraju Gukesh and Koneru Humpy.
We will analyse what they need to do to become champions, but first, let us recap what happened in the twelfth round:
Gukesh Reclaimed Pole Position, Praggnanandhaa Knocked Out
The youngest player in this competition, 17-year-old Gukesh secured a much-needed victory against the lowest-seeded Nijat Abasov, wherein he caught the Azerbaijani Grandmaster off-guard with his opening preparation, in a game of the Nimzo-Indian Classical.
The two other Indians in the open section – R Praggnanandhaa and Vidit Gujrathi – however, could not get full points. Praggnanandhaa got a draw against Ian Nepomniachtchi, while Vidit was defeated by Fabiano Caruana.
In the women’s section, Koneru Humpy kept her chances alive, be it the slimmest of chances this competition has seen, by drawing against Aleksandra Goryachkina with black pieces. Meanwhile, albeit she is already out of contention for the top spot, R Vaishali secured her third consecutive victory by beating Anna Muzychuk.
Candidates Tournament 2024, Round 12 Results:
Hikaru Nakamura won against Alireza Firouzja
Nijat Abasov lost against D Gukesh
Fabiano Caruana won against Vidit Gujrathi
Ian Nepomniachtchi drew against R Praggnanandhaa
Kateryna Lagno drew against Lei Tingjie
Anna Muzychuk lost against R Vaishali
Aleksandra Goryachkina drew against Koneru Humpy
Nurgyul Salimova drew against Tan Zhongyi
(Players mentioned on the right played with black pieces)
How Does the Points Table Look
The open section currently has three players – Gukesh, Nakamura and Nepomniachtchi – tied on top with 7.5 places. They are followed by Fabiano Caruana, who had 7 points in his account and is the fourth contender to become the champion.
The other four – Praggnanandhaa (fifth with 6 points), Vidit (sixth with 5 points), Firouzja (seventh with 4.5 points) and Abasov (eighth with 3 points) – are out of contention.
In the women’s section, Chinese duo Tan Zhongyi (8 points) and Lei Tingjie (7.5 points) are occupying the first two places respectively. They are followed by Kateryna Lagno, Koneru Humpy and Aleksandra Goryachkina – all of whom have 6 points apiece, and are still, albeit mathematically, in contention to be the winner.
Those whose hopes have already been dashed are Vaishali (sixth place with 5.5 points), Nurgyul Salimova (seventh place with 4.5 points) and Anna Muzychuk (eighth place with 4.5 points).
How Can Gukesh Become the Champion?
With Praggnanandhaa and Vidit Gujrathi now officially out of the championship reckoning, all hopes of the Indian chess fraternity is pinned on Gukesh – the second-youngest participant in this competition, after only the legendary Bobby Fischer.
Gukesh is currently on 7.5 points, and could accumulate anything between 0-2 in his last couple of matches, which will be against – Alireza Firouzja (with white pieces), and Hikaru Nakamura (with black pieces)
Let us have a look at all possible scenarios:
Scenario 1: Gukesh Wins Both Games
If he wins both matches, Gukesh will finish with 9.5 points. In that case, he just has to hope that Nepomniachtchi does not beat both Nakamura and Caruana in his last two games. Even if he does, Gukesh will be tied on top with the Russian.
Scenario 2: Gukesh Beats Firouzja & Draws Against Nakamura
In this scenario, Gukesh will finish with 9 points. Should such a situation arrive, Nepomniachtchi or Nakamura should not get more than 1.5 points in his last two games, which will then trigger a tie-breaker. Alternatively, Caruana should not win both of his remaining games.
Scenario 3: Gukesh Beats Nakamura & Draws Against Firouzja
Gukesh will finish with 9 points in this scenario, too, albeit the permutations will be different. Here, the teenager will have to first hope that Nepomniachtchi does not get more 1.5 points from his last two games, restricting the Russian to 9 points as well, and Caruana does not win his last two fixtures.
Scenario 5: Gukesh Beats Firouzja & Loses Against Nakamura
Here, Gukesh will finish with 8.5 points. Things will get complicated if such a situation arrives as Nakamura will then have to lose against Nepomniachtchi, who instead will have to lose against Caruana. Caruana, then, should not beat Praggnanandhaa.
Scenario 6: Gukesh Beats Nakamura & Loses Against Firouzja
Once again, Gukesh will finish with 8.5 points. Here, Nepomniachtchi should not get more than 1 point from his last two games, and Caruana should not get more than 1.5, which will then trigger a tie-break.
Scenario 7: Gukesh Draws One & Loses One Game
Game over, unfortunately.
Scenario 8: Gukesh Loses Both Games
Of course, game over.
Can Koneru Humpy Still Win?
Mathematically, she can. Albeit, on the harsh grounds of reality, Koneru Humpy’s chances of emerging victorious in the women’s section are as good as nil.
Yet, let us have a look at the only way she can trigger a tie-break, involving three conditions:
Condition 1
Currently placed fourth with 6 points, Koneru Humpy will first have to ensure she wins both of her last two games – against Anna Muzychuk with white, and against Lei Tingjie with black. This will get her to 8 points.
Condition 2
Tan Zhongyi, who is currently the leader with 8 points, must lose both of her last two games.
Condition 3
Lei Tingjie, currently placed second with 7.5 points, should not beat Humpy’s Indian compatriot, R Vaishali.