West Bengal: As Modi Firms His Grip, Can Mamata Bridge the North-South Divide?

A deep-rooted "north-south divide" has characterised West Bengal's political landscape, much as it did on a broader national canvas with South Indian states eluding the saffron brigade and the north aligning overwhelmingly with it.Politics in Bengal has evolved over the past couple of elections to give the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) a firm footing in North Bengal districts while in the South districts, the voters still largely sway with Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress (TMC).The firebrand Trinamool Congress Chief Mamata Banerjee faces a tough challenge in the first round of polling in the North Bengal districts beginning 19 April and she is desperate to breach the divide this time, toiling hard to renew her grassroots connect.Elections 2024: In the Battle Against Modi, Mahua is Mamata's Strongest WarriorBJP’s campaign, on the other hand, in Bengal this time, is distinctly different than its bid for power in 2019. It used to be a Band Baja Barat sort of campaign in 2019, with hordes of BJP leaders of all hues trouping down to raise a cacophony with band parties, performers and curious onlookers joining the fray. Every leader would hold a roadshow splurging money but lacking a uniform narrative.The poll campaign has been curated differently here by the BJP and Prime Minister Narendra Modi on several counts. First, the 'Chaiwala’ of 2019 has emerged in a new avatar in 2024 in the election arena as a 'dream merchant’ or swapna ka sawadagar. In rallies, Modi is chanting a new mantra: "I have come to deliver. I will make sure your dream is fulfilled. Aap ka swapna, mera sankalp – Your dream is my pledge. My guarantee.”The earlier slogan of "Double Engine Ki Sarkar" was also replaced this time by one that exhorted the crowd to vote for a “Sashakt Sarkar. Sashakt Bharat.” And finally, there was a solid dose of bitter acrimony as Modiji described Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress as a "party of Tolabazz” (Extortionists) and urged the people to shut down the TMC’s dukan in Bengal.Women & Tribals: How BJP Seeks to Use Sandeshkhali to Undo Mamata's 2021 GainsA close scrutiny reveals that the battle pitch has been carefully positioned as one between Narendra Modi and Mamata Banerjee, not so much between the BJP and the Trinamool Congress. Leaders like Amit Shah and JP Nadda made symbolic appearances in a couple of meetings but the ground was left largely to the PM to steer and manoeuvre.If Modiji focused more on national and of course, with the sole exception of the Sandeshkhali episode to attack Mamata, the state CM launched a counter-offensive accusing the PM of creating an "economic blockade” against the state of having deprived nearly 59 lakh poor people from their daily wages earned through the National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme. The poor have not been paid their wages for three long years. Similar is the fate of Awas Yojna, depriving thousands of a shade on their heads, alleged Mamata.“What guarantee is Modiji talking about? His is a government of mafias,” thundered Mamata Banerjee in public meetings. “He is a liar. He is maligning West Bengal and its people. There may have been some aberrations in Sandeshkhali but the government acted swiftly to take corrective steps,” she said.However, as for the first rounds of polling – eight North Bengal districts comprising 22 percent of the state’s population throw up eight Lok Sabha seats and in 2019, the BJP had bagged seven out of eight, leaving only one to the Indian National Congress in Malda – a traditionally Muslim majority Congress dominated district of the Ghani Khan Chowdhury gharana.The Trinamool Congress drew a blank in Cooch Behar, Alipurduar, Jalpaiguri, Darjeeling, Uttar Dinajpur, Dakshin Dinajpur, and Malda.What explains this north-south divide or the voters’ choices is a dismal track record of the development of the region under Trinamol Congress, along with shrinking job opportunities, closed and sick tea gardens and a moribund jute industry.Add to this, the rampant corruption at the grassroots level where in the panchayats the Trinamool Congress functionaries are in total control. These have combined to create an acute anti-incumbency factor.TMC Blows Lok Sabha Bugle: Balancing Bengali Nationalism & National IdentityThe region’s demography is interesting as well as complex. The Gorkhas dominate not only the hills but constitute more than 20 per cent of the population in the Dooars and are spread across the Assembly segments of Siliguri, Jalpaiguri, and Alipurduar. They are a major factor and may swing fortunes.The Rajbanshis, on the other hand, are the dominant and largest Scheduled Caste population in Bengal, concentrated mostly in the North Bengal districts and considered the sons of the soil. The other two segments are the Adivasis comprising largely the tea garden population and the migrant refugee population from Bangladesh who have settled in the region at different times.The hill politics primarily revolves around the Gorkha statehood demand. Mamata Banerjee after having assumed power in 2011, has put to rest bloodshed and frequent unrest in the Darjeeling hills through her aggressive politics. In the process, she had been a stumbling block to the Gorkha dream of a separate state.So, when it comes to the emotive issue of a separate statehood or autonomy for Gorkhas under the Sixth Schedule of the Indian Constitution, it is the government at the Center whom the Gorkha outfits fall back on to address that demand.Darjeeling has elected a BJP legislator for the last three consecutive terms and is likely to do the same purely on the belief that it is Modi who can deliver. In fact, during his first term as PM, Modi had promised the Gorkhas that he would work towards realising their demand for a separate statehood. But subsequently, it petered off.Similar aspirations have driven the Rajbanshis in North Bengal to cling to the BJP, hoping for some form of an autonomous council in a manner that exists in Assam under the BJP rule.Assam too, has a large Rajbanshi population. Here again, the BJP had soft-pedalled with the Rajbanshi sentiments – by nominating Ananta Maharaj – a highly respected community leader to the Rajya Sabha. But the community reportedly was jolted in their hopes as recent signals from Delhi were reported to be not very encouraging as far as regional autonomy for Rajbanshis is concerned.CAA: BJP's Prospects in Bengal Hinge on Matua Belts but Mamata Stands in the WayAnother dominant factor reflected in the region’s socio-economic character is the large-scale migration of workforce – men and of late, women to Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Karnataka, Maharashtra, and also Delhi, Haryana, and Rajasthan in the face of acute unemployment. There are scores of villages in Alipurduar, Cooch Behar, Falakata, Moynaguri, Dhupguri and Jalpaiguri from where Rajbanshi youths are migrating to other states. Most of them bring back home the effects of the saffron surge in many of the states where they work and also stories of greater development initiatives in those states.A West Bengal government initiative to enumerate the number of migrants revealed a total of about 28 lakh migrants who registered themselves on a government’s dedicated portal. Even though many believe the number could still be much higher than what has emerged.Going by the recent poll statistics, the BJP’s rising graph is hard to miss overall in the state of West Bengal. The party increased its vote share in the Lok Sabha from 16.84 percent in 2014 to a whopping 40.25 per cent, having bagged 18 seats and just 3 percent less than the TMC vote share of 43.28 in 2019 in West Bengal.The plight of the tea industry and a huge population associated with is another factor that weighs heavily against the ruling Trinamool Congress government. Though both the central and state governments are equally responsible for the sorry state of affairs in the tea industry, the state as an immediate intermediary gets the blame.The tea gardens are in a real mess. According to a state government survey, there are about 276 tea gardens in the region of which 81 are in the hills, 45 in the foothills or Terai and another 150 in the Dooars. Daily waged workers were estimated at about 218,000 while casual workers totalled about 68,000. Non-tea worker residents in the gardens of Dooars, Terai, and the hills were another whopping population of 873.000.A recent study by an independent tea workers' organisation called Paschim Banga Cha Majoor Samity (PBCMS) highlighted the “humanitarian crisis” the tea garden workers were facing. The PBCMS survey was triggered by an alleged starvation death on 3 February 2024 at Madhu Tea Estate in Kalchini Block of Alipurduar Lok Sabha constituency. The survey revealed an alarming level of malnutrition and described the death of the tea worker as "distressing.”“It is a stark reminder of the dire consequences faced by many tea garden workers in the region,” the survey observed.Purbayan Chakraborty, one of the signatories to the survey report said, "The survey was not planned for the Lok Sabha elections. It is a coincidence. But it reflects not just the conditions of tea garden workers but is a sad commentary on the failure of the two major contenders in this election, one of them controls the central government and the other the state unit. Incidentally, both the parties are in power for more than 10 years, more than sufficient time to change people’s lives.”The TMC government of late, has started several economic stimulus packages like the "Cha Sundari Scheme" and homestead land pattas for tea garden workers, tea tourism, and allied business initiatives in fallow tea garden lands. However, the benefits are yet to be reflected in the quality of life of tea workers.(The writer is a Kolkata-based senior journalist. This is an opinion piece and the views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for the same.)

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West Bengal: As Modi Firms His Grip, Can Mamata Bridge the North-South Divide?

The firebrand TMC chief faces a tough challenge in the first round of polling in North Bengal beginning 19 April.

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Topics: Tea gardens West Bengal elections