The first phase of the all-important Uttar Pradesh Assembly election is being held today. Fifty-eight seats will be voting in this phase in the western region of the state. The outcome of the phase could decide the way the other phases vote, and hence, this phase is particularly crucial for all parties.
The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which swept this region in 2017 by bagging 53 of the 58 seats on offer, is facing the ire of farmers, who are led by the influential Jat community. The Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) won two seats, as did the Samajwadi Party (SP) and the Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) one seat. The BJP’s vote share was 46%, while the BSP’s was 22% and RLD-SP’s 24%.
The sheer scale of the BJP’s victory was such that its vote share was equal to the vote share of the BSP, the SP and the RLD combined.
Reviving the Jat-Muslim Vote Bank
The Jats account for 17%-18% population in this region. The Samajwadi Party has teamed up with Jat party RLD and is attempting to revive the Jat-Muslim vote bank/ bhaichara (harmony) which was deeply wounded after the 2013 Muzaffarnagar riots.
The first phase of voting covers Jat land districts of Shamli, Muzaffarnagar, Baghpat, Meerut, Ghaziabad, Hapur, Gautam Buddha Nagar, Bulandshahr, Aligarh, Mathura and Agra. The RLD is contesting half of these (28) seats from the SP alliance.
A few districts, not all here, have a sizeable minority population as well, namely Muzaffarnagar, Meerut, Baghpat, Ghaziabad, Bulandshahr. These account for 34 out of 58 seats.
The minority population is thus 21.4%, just marginally higher than the state average. However, the influence of minorities is lesser in Phase 1 compared to Phase 2, where their population is 36.2%.
The Dalit population here is lower than the state average, at 18.4%. It is higher in Agra and Aligarh districts, at 21%.
Jats Want to Teach BJP a Lesson
The BJP has been garnering more than 50% vote share of Jats in the last three elections, which includes two general elections. However, the community appears to be disillusioned due to the failure of the BJP in not keeping its promises and the tabling of the three farm Bills. Many in the community, led by farm leader Rakesh Tikait, have made up their mind to teach the BJP a lesson.
Influential communities like Jats mostly vote to defeat. They voted for three elections to defeat the SP and teach it a lesson, as they were allegedly favouring minorities during riots. Now, they want to show they are kingmakers and that it is they who brought the BJP to power in Uttar Pradesh in 2017. If they can make, they can destroy, too.
But on a standalone basis, they do not pose a serious threat in all the 58 seats. They become a lethal force when combined with Muslims. This is what is causing headaches for the BJP. An en bloc vote could dent the BJP and its efforts of retaining power.
However, the repeal of farm laws has also made a section, though a minority, forgive the BJP and continue backing them, as they can’t trust Muslims after the riots. They are Hindu first and then Jat. The BJP is the party that talks about the protection of the rights of Hindus, they feel.
But Can Jat-Muslim Consolidation Backfire?
While the SP has clearly emerged as the main contender in Uttar Pradesh and is expected to bag a majority of the minority community votes, there is a risk of less-than-full consolidation and a split of votes. The All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM), the Congress and the BSP have also put up some minority community candidates, who could draw votes, thus helping the BJP. For 10 seats or so, there are multiple Muslim candidates.
Transfer of votes remains a challenge in any alliance, and it is feared that while the SP May transfer its votes to the RLD, Jats may not reciprocate fully, thus weakening its prospects.
A Jat-Muslim consolidation could also lead to counter-consolidation of Hindu votes in the favour of the BJP. This is something that the SP must be wary of. The atmosphere is already charged in the region, as per reports.
A consolidation of Jats and Muslims may also not be enough, as the task is huge, with the BJP sitting pretty at 46% vote share. The SP will also need to attract a section of Dalit voters of the BSP. Here is where he could rue the failure to stitch a deal with Chandrasekhar Azad.
The Weak Link in SP Alliance
With the BJP having peaked in 2017, it is highly likely that its tally would reduce, but by how much is the key question. A 15% swing in favour of SP-RLD, 10% from the BSP and 5% from the BJP, could dent the BJP’s prospects by 14 seats as per 2017 calculations, which is not a big blow.
On the other hand, a 15% swing for SP-RLD, -10% from the BJP and -5% from the BSP pitches the SP at 31 and the BJP at 27. This is a huge swing but not improbable; it has happened in elections.
So, it all depends upon the extent of loss – a loss of 14 seats is manageable, but that of 26 seats will be huge for the BJP. The party won 312 seats in 2017, and thus it has a buffer of 110 as the majority is 202. In each phase, it can lose up to 15 seats and still scrape through.
Can Jats take revenge or will Jayant Chaudhary prove to be the weak link in the SP alliance? Only time will tell.
(The author is an independent political commentator and can be reached at @politicalbaaba. This is an opinion piece. The views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for them.)
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