An America-India strategic alliance was the most incontestable geopolitical theorem for the last two decades. Especially since President George Bush Jr ended India’s nuclear isolation in 2008 by granting an exceptional exemption from the NPT (Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty). Suddenly, India’s nuclear status switched from pariah/outcast to mainstream. We could obtain and enrich uranium for our civil nuclear energy programme without giving up or circumcising our nuclear weapons. India attained an unusual, not-available-to-any-other-country geopolitical importance virtually overnight.
A stream of tangible, visible actions followed — mostly in partnership with America — that solidified India’s prowess on the global stage. The biggest war exercises were conducted in sync with the US, Japan, and Australia, ie the Quad. Foundational military agreements — with acronyms like LEMOA, COMACASA, BECA — were rapidly executed. Freedom of navigation patrols were launched in the Indo-Pacific, sharply targeting Chinese adventurism.
But then Donald Trump 2.0 happened. He came with an unexpected vow to upturn and wreck every existing treaty or alliance. As if he had vowed to fix it because it wasn’t broke! What followed were egregious tariffs on allies, belligerent diatribes against NATO, friendly footsies with Russia, China, and Pakistan … and an utterly inexplicable grudge against India.
THE G2 WILL BE CONVENING SHORTLY (!)
Even by Trump’s maverick standards, he shocked the world by a very casual endorsement of G2. On 30 October, as he headed to meet with Chinese President Xi, Trump tweeted in all caps: THE G2 WILL BE CONVENING SHORTLY. Perhaps it was an off-the-cuff remark, made without much thought or substance; nonetheless, its potential to destroy a carefully knit post WW-II global consensus is epic and dangerous.
What does G2 imply? That America and China are free to carve up mutually agreed spheres of influence? Something as cavalier as “I will take Alaska and Canada, you take Taiwan… and let’s both take Russia, Pakistan, the Middle East, and Southeast Asia as equal dominions”? What happens to Europe, Japan, Australia, and India? Just cut them loose to drift away and find a new geopolitical destiny?
Trump’s G2 Vs Alliance of 2 SuperEconomies
I felt personally jabbed and wounded by Trump’s G2 tweet. Because I had aggressively postulated that the America-India tango would create the Age of SuperEconomies (reference: SuperEconomies - America, India, China, & The Future of the World, published by Penguin Allen Lane in 2015).
What is a SuperEconomy? What attributes define it? I had created six very objective parameters.
It should be a large country, both in terms of land mass and number of people. Russia, China, India, America, Canada, Brazil, and Argentina ticked that box.
Each SuperEconomy should have a large GDP, at least equal to or more than 5 percent of global GDP. America and China easily make the cut on both nominal and PPP (purchasing power parity) counts. India’s nominal GDP is creeping up to that threshold, while she’s crossed the Rubicon in PPP terms. So India does tick half that box, and is growing at a rate which could make it tick the other half soon. While Japan and Germany could also be smuggled into this set, they fail to make the cut in Point 1. Russia too drops out here.
Every SuperEconomy should have a large military. Once again, America, China, Russia, and India come in the reckoning. Although North Korea flirts around the edges, it’s a flop show on other parameters.
Besides having a large military, a SuperEconomy should be a nuclear weapons power. So America, China, Russia, and India stay in the game, while Brazil, Canada, and Argentina cop out. France, the UK, Pakistan, Israel, and North Korea beep up, but are a no-show elsewhere.
Each SuperEconomy must have an influential global diaspora and significant soft power, ie its cultural influence should be expanding on the planet. America, China, and India come good on this one too.
Finally, a SuperEconomy should be critically located; it should be a “hot spot” for influencing conflict and commercial outcomes. America’s strategic influence on the Atlantic and Pacific oceans, its military bases all over the globe, give it a unique score. China’s location at the epicenter of Asia, its dominance of world trade, along with a formidable presence in the Indo-Pacific Ocean, qualifies it on this count. India’s foremost position in South Asia, with tentacles of leverage that arc from Africa, the Middle East, to Southeast Asia, bring it into the reckoning.
My conclusion was clear: America is the predominant SuperEconomy, ie S1; China was a strong challenger SuperEconomy, ie S2; and India was an inexorably emerging SuperEconomy, ie S3. There was no fourth SuperEconomy waiting in the queue.
Can Zohran Mamdani and New Democrats Resurrect the Alliance of SuperEconomies?
I extended my thesis to assert that a strategic alliance between S1+S3, ie between America and India, was the most robust formation to keep the world in peaceful equilibrium. China, ie S2, would dare not fool around with S1+S3+Allies, as their heft would always exceed China’s weight, even if you add Russia’s support to the Dragon.
Their cumulative GDPs would outpoint China at least by 3:1; their military strength would similarly be 3, perhaps even 4:1; their combined nuclear power would be overwhelming; their geographical spread across the globe would keep conflict spots small and confined; and finally, their additive soft/cultural power would keep the world liberal and democratic in the face of rising authoritarianism.
In my book, S1+S3 was the 21st century mantra for keeping the world prosperous and democratic.
But President Trump’s G2 articulation dangerously overturns the S1+S3 postulate. Because G2 will create an inherently fragile and inimical equilibrium. However much America and China may want to give friendly vibes, the reality is that they are endemic competitors on earth – militarily, geographically, economically, and as purveyors of political control/influence. Any peace between them will always be threatened by mistrust and suspicion; any minor accident or tiny tremor could trigger an apocalypse.
And this is where Zohran Mamdani and the new Democrats kick in. Their astonishing political triumph in New York, New Jersey, and Virginia—which is a positive metaphor for getting America back on the rails—gives hope that Trump’s whimsical, mythical creation of G2 will die an early death. That should resurrect the time tested geopolitical equation, ie S1+S3+Allies.
I would bet the farm on this one.