Politicians are awful at predicting their own defeat. The stronger the politician, the louder their echo-chamber, and, therefore, the darker their blind spot.
Remember Indira Gandhi in 1977? She cut short her Emergency and called for polls, based on intelligence inputs that people were happy because “trains were running on time and there was general discipline all around.” She also believed her TINA – There Is No Alternative – factor. She completely missed the anger bubbling in the countryside, as a coercive state went about sterilising people and demolishing slums. She was wiped out in the elections, losing her own seat to Raj Narain, a clownish leader; and her son, Sanjay, lost from the family pocket borough of Amethi. It was brutal.
Cut to Atal Bihari Vajpayee in 2004. Once again the TINA factor made him look invincible. But then he blundered into the “India Shining” campaign, celebrating trivial urban joys (like access to a mobile phone). India’s poor, trapped in a low-income, stale-mated existence, recoiled in horror. Vajpayee lost heavily to a “faceless” Congress led by the “inexperienced” Sonia Gandhi. Suddenly, TINA had become TIAA (There Is An Alternative)!
Something eerily similar is happening today, and the most powerful politician of our times could be missing the smoke signals. Unlike with Indira and Atal, all three factors are in play this time – the misplaced belief in TINA, premature celebration, and a coercive state.