Pahalgam Terror Response a Litmus Test for Pakistan's Democracy—And India's Too

There should be no war between India and Pakistan. However, Pakistan has already, and yet again, waged a proxy war on India in the form of a savage and apparently communally inspired terrorist attack in Pahalgam. The killing of 25 unarmed tourists at a scenic spot in Kashmir, and a Kashmiri who tried to save them, is not something that any self-respecting nation can tolerate and remain silent about.If what Pakistan has started escalates into a full-scale war, it alone will have to bear the responsibility. But here is a prediction. Pakistan will lose the war badly.What is more, Pakistan’s military facing a bitter defeat will be good for Pakistan itself because this could finally pave the way for an end to the army’s pernicious domination over the nation and its sick democracy ─ a permanent sickness caused by the permanent military rule.Pahalgam Attack: Why Pakistan Provoked Despite Modi Govt's Expected ResponseThe first casualty of the war will have to be Pakistan’s army chief General Asim Munir, the demagogue who lit the fuse of the latest hostility with India with a reckless speech in Islamabad on April 17. Hated by many Pakistanis ─ mainly because he has jailed Imran Khan, the country’s most popular civilian leader, since May 2023 ─ the general’s fulminations against India and his bigotry-tinged claim on Kashmir served as the backdrop, and even perhaps as an instigation, for the barbaric attack on innocent tourists in Pahalgam.The Pakistani army’s operational links with the terror attack are a matter of investigation and perhaps one that will be taken up by historians in the future. But the ideological bedrock for the attack was laid by General Munir himself.In his speech, he waded into the history of India’s partition in 1947 by justifying the “two-nation theory”, a theory that is as specious as it is poisonous. Asserting that Muslims belong to a "superior ideology and culture", he said: “Our forefathers thought we (Muslims) are different from Hindus in every possible aspect of life. Our religions are different, our customs are different, our traditions are different, our thoughts are different, our ambitions are different. That was the foundation of the two-nation theory that was laid there. We are two nations, we are not one nation."To those in Pakistan who adhere to this insidious theory, I ask: “Tell us, whether you won independence from the Hindus or from the British? Also, tell us, whether the Muslims now living in India ─ and their number is almost equal to the number of Muslims in Pakistan ─ also constitute a separate nation.”The general then made the oft-repeated claim that “Kashmir was, is and will forever be the jugular vein of Pakistan," adding that Pakistan will not forget this and continue to show solidarity with the “struggle" of Kashmiris.The implication was crystal clear. Muslim-majority Kashmir cannot be part of India, and any means adopted to support its secession from India, including terrorist killing of innocent civilians, often based on religion, are legitimate.Pahalgam Attack Linked to Gen Asim Munir? Answer Lies in His Ties With 2 MenEvery crime needs a fig leaf of falsehood to hide it. Pakistan’s defence minister Khawaja Asif provided that falsehood it when he accused India of having “staged” the shooting of tourists in Pahalgam.India has shown great restraint in the past when Pakistan’s military-engineered terror attacks in India ─ the worst being the one that happened on 26 November 2008, when ten Pakistani nationals belonging to Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) sailed from Karachi and killed 175 people at various locations in Mumbai. Such restraint is now gone. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has warned:“India will identify, track and punish every terrorist and their backers. We will pursue them to the ends of the Earth.…I want to say in very clear words that these terrorists and those who conspired towards this attack will get a punishment bigger than they can imagine. The willpower of 140 crore Indians will now break the back of the masters of terror."If India’s actions match these words, and if Pakistan resists, it is absolutely certain that Pakistan will lose the war, mainly due to four key factors.1. Wrong Side of Justice: Wars are not fought merely with weapons, not even, primarily, by militaries. They are fought by nations. In any war, a nation’s true strength is determined by the justness of its cause, which in turn forges the power of the will of its people. In the aftermath of the terror attack in Kashmir, justice is on India’s side.There was not even an iota of justice in killing innocent people. But the killers compounded their crime by making it a communal crime. The fact that the they identified the religion of the victims before shooting them is now irrefutably established. It is equally indisputable that the masterminds behind this terrorist attack ─ and numerous such terrorist attacks in Kashmir and elsewhere in India in the past ─ are certain dark forces within the Pakistani military establishment, which create, train and arm many “non-state actors”, a euphemism for state-backed terror groups.Pakistan’s complicity in the attack has been revealed by none other than Khawaja Asif in an interview to Yalda Hakim on Sky News. The interviewer asked him: “But you do admit, you do admit sir, that Pakistan has had a long history of backing and supporting and training and funding these terrorist organisations?” Pakistan’s Defence Minister was the epitome of truthfulness.“Well, we have been doing this dirty work for the United States for three decades.”Khawaja Asif, Defence Minister, Pakistan.Actually, Pakistan’s army has been doing this “dirty” work in both Afghanistan and Kashmir. In Afghanistan, it wanted to gain “strategic depth” by controlling the government in Kabul. In Kashmir, it wanted to use trained terrorists against India. On both fronts, its strategy has boomeranged. As has been rightly said, “You can't keep snakes in your backyard and expect them only to bite your neighbours.” Homegrown terrorism has taken a huge toll in Pakistan itself. Still, some in Pakistan’s military continue to play with fire in Kashmir.2. Military Fatigue: A nation is more than its military. In Pakistan, its military has become synonymous with the nation. By disempowering its people and their elected representatives, Pakistan’s military has placed itself above all norms of accountability. Its political establishment stands fragmented. A large section of it is actually seething with anger against the quasi-military rule. As a result, Pakistan is in no position to summon its national will to fight a war.For evidence, one only has to read comments of the supporters of Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) on the social media. Here is a sample. One Pakistani has written on X: “Forces that do not have the power of the people behind them can never win, and the Pakistani army has committed so many atrocities on the people that the people have now become neutral.”Here is another example. Pravin Sawhney, an Indian defence analyst tweeted: “It is stupid to say that Pak Army has no public support needed for war with India. When war happens, the entire nation stands behind its military!” Unbelievably, he was countered by Moeed Pirzada, a noted Pakistani journalist with millions of followers on X. He said: “Pravin, you are certainly out of touch with reality! Your statement is a cliche!”Yet another Pakistani commented: “This is not the Pakistan Army, this is the army of King Asim Munir.”Never before have so many Pakistani citizens spoken so fearlessly and publicly against their own military, especially its chief. It is not that only the supporters of Imran Khan have a grouse against Pakistan’s army. Every major political party has suffered under army domination.The country’s two other major political parties ─ Pakistan Muslim League (PML(N)) and the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP), now led by Bilawal Bhutto ─ have also suffered at the hands of the army. Nawaz Sharif, a former Prime Minister, who was jailed and exiled, has condemned the army in the past. Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, the founder of PPP and a former Prime Minister, was hanged by the regime of General Zia ul-Haq. His daughter Benazir Bhutto, also a former Prime Minister, was assassinated. The army ensured that the full truth behind the crime never came out and the guilty remained unpunished.Shehbaz Sharif, the incumbent Prime Minister, does not enjoy popular support. He is seen as a dummy leader selected by the army, which did not want to see Imran Khan in power. How can such an impotent civilian authority have any power to enthuse the people to support a war ─ especially when many citizens can clearly see that their own army is in the wrong? Reactions from local Pakistani people on social media suggests the same.3. Cash-strapped: Pakistan’s economy continues to be deeply crisis-ridden. Its government has no clear vision for the country’s development. It also lacks the capacity to implement long-term plans for sustainable economic growth. The army itself eats up a lot of the nation’s resources. This forces Pakistan’s rulers to frequently go with a begging bowl to “friendly” countries. But these donor “friends” have no respect for Pakistan that wants to use them as an ATM. Can it expect to call on these friends for geopolitical support in case of a war with India? Not likely.4. Domestic Security: Pakistan’s internal problems are further exacerbated by tensions among its four provinces ─ Punjab, Sindh, Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Pakistan’s own thoughtful scholars and commentators have been cautioning about this matter. In an article titled Federation Under Strain, this is what Zahid Hussain, an eminent author, wrote in Dawn newspaper on 23 April:“While Balochistan is in the throes of an insurgency, the increasing tension between the provincial government in KP and Islamabad has further strained the federation. The increasingly centralised decision-making and the growing shadow of the establishment over all aspects of the power spectrum threatens the unity of the federation.”Imran Khan himself has likened the current situation in Pakistan to “Yahya Khan Part 2”, a throwback to the dictatorship of General Yahya Khan (1969-71), when the country broke up into two with the liberation of Bangladesh. His party’s official X account said: “The sorry state of affairs in Pakistan, where one pillar after another of the state is being conquered by Yahya Khan part 2. The country is now fully under the grip of a mafia hellbent on destroying it!”Back to Bedlam? Kashmir Braces for Return of 'Search & Cordon' Era Post PahalgamWhat this shows is that Pakistan’s rulers would do well to focus their energies on putting their own house in order, instead of continuing to “bleed India with a thousand cuts” ─ or repeating ad nauseum, as General Asim Munir did in his harangue against India, that “Kashmir is the jugular vein of Pakistan."If Pakistan persists in its misadventure, Kashmir will prove to be the undoing of Pakistan.A war between India and Pakistan should be avoided. But it can only be avoided if the rulers in both Rawalpindi and Islamabad come to their senses and give an unbreakable assurance to India and the international community that they will not use terrorism as a weapon in their state policy. Pakistan has given such assurances in the past and broken them with impunity. But now a situation has arisen when India will no longer be satisfied with old kind of assurances. Pakistan will have to think of do something more credible in order to avoid paying the price for its wilful and wanton support to terrorism in Pahalgam.India’s message Pakistan should be clear: Learn to live in peace within your own borders.That would be good for its own people, and the people in the entire South Asian region. India must let its neighbour know that the latter needs to give up, once and for all, the goal of either merging Kashmir into Pakistan or making Kashmir an independent nation. This "dream" has been nothing more than an empty, communal rhetoric that has scratched by for nearly eight decades after the end of the British rule in 1947, fuelling violence and civil war and bloodbath across the border.I know from my own personal interactions that several Pakistani politicians know the utter futility of pursuing the country’s dogmatic policy on Kashmir. If the de facto and de jure military rule ends, and genuine democracy dawns, Pakistan’s elected governments would surely like to propose to India a compromise solution on Kashmir, along with a firm assurance abjure the path of terrorism. But this does not suit the military rulers, who want to perpetuate their rule by claiming that they alone can protect Pakistan from a mighty India next-door.Therefore, India should also convey a solemn note of assurance to the people and rulers of Pakistan: That India has no intention of dismembering Pakistan.When Pakistan got partitioned in 1971, it was because of its own follies and not because of any Hindu conspiracy. India wants Pakistan to remain united and become stable, peaceful, democratic and prosperous. It wants to conduct relations with Pakistan on the basis of sovereign equality, mutual respect and good-neighbourliness. But the same good-neighbourly behaviour can then be expected from Pakistan. Aiding and abetting terrorism in Kashmir and elsewhere in India is not how a good neighbour behaves; it is how an enemy behaves.'Leave by 10 am': Hindutva Groups Target Kashmiri Students Post Pahalgam AttackAt the same time, India must avoid committing some grave mistakes in the fight against terrorism and religious extremism, ie, ignoring "homegrown", terrorism and extremism.Engagement is Key: The Indian government has not made consistent efforts to make the common people of Pakistan ─ also sensible politicians, military leaders, religious leaders, artists, sportspersons, writers and intellectuals ─ partners in this struggle. Even before the Pahalgam incident, it had thoughtlessly severed all people-to-people contacts between our two countries. This blunder must be corrected.People-first Approach: Such efforts cannot succeed if some of India’s actions or announcements hurt the interests of the people of Pakistan. For example, New Delhi’s decision to keep the Indus Water Treaty in abeyance was avoidable. After all, the people of Pakistan are our own sisters and brothers, and they cannot be denied their share of a God-created river that is the cradle of our common civilisation.Restoring Kashmir's Statehood: Soon after the current crisis has been overcome, the Modi government must take swift steps to restore complete normalcy and democratic rule in Jammu and Kashmir. Statehood must be brought back without any delay. All causes of people’s grievances must be sensitively addressed.Protecting Indian Muslims: The Indian government and the BJP, the ruling party, will have no moral right to question Mohammad Ali Jinnah’s “Two-Nation Theory” if today’s India is sought to be transformed into a “Hindu Nation” that marginalises and discriminates against Muslims in our own country. In the wake of the Pahalgam attack, Hindu extremists have intensified their campaign of vilification against Islam and Indian Muslims. This is highly dangerous. It only provides grist to Pakistani hawks' anti-India propaganda.'Hindus Should Kill Your...': Kolkata Doc to Pregnant Muslim as Hate SurgesIdentifying Hindu Extremism: Extremist Hindu forces have also used the Pahalgam attack to target all Kashmiri Muslims for the crime. Kashmiri Muslim students and traders are being harassed in many places the country. This is shameful. When we say India is one from Kashmir to Kanyakumari, we do not mean that only the land of Kashmir is a part of India. The people of Kashmir ─ Muslims equally as Hindus and Sikhs ─ are also an integral part of this ancient and common nation of ours. Indeed, protection of Kashmiriyat ─ Kashmir’s age-old syncretic culture of Muslims, Hindus, Sikhs and Buddhists living together harmoniously ─ is the most potent counter to the hateful “Two-Nations Theory”, which Kashmiris had rejected in 1947 itself.Prime Minister Modi has a duty in this regard. He must send a strong and unequivocal message of communal harmony and national unity at this crucial juncture in our national life. Those who violate this command must be severely dealt with.The coming days are going to be extremely challenging for India. The future course of developments is unpredictable. Only with unity ─ social and political ─ and wisdom can we overcome this crisis and create a future that strengthens India and creates conditions for Pakistan to seek peaceful neighbourliness with us.(The writer, who served as an aide to India’s former Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee, is the founder of the ‘Forum for a New South Asia – Powered by India-Pakistan-China Cooperation’. He tweets @SudheenKulkarni and welcomes comments at sudheenkulkarni@gmail.com. This is an opinion piece and the views expressed are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for them.)

BECOME A MEMBER

Pahalgam Response: Four Reasons Why Pak Army Will Lose If War Breaks Out

If Pakistan persists in its misadventure, Kashmir will prove to be its undoing, writes Sudheendra Kulkarni.

Read Latest News and Breaking News at The Quint, browse for more from opinion

Topics: Pakistan Pahalgam terror attack