Five years ago, almost to the day during the 2018 Monsoon Session of Parliament, the Opposition moved a no-confidence motion against the Modi government. It was defeated roundly, 126 votes to 325 of the treasury benches.
But the 12-hour-long debate set the tone for the Lok Sabha battle in 2019. And like it smashed the no-confidence motion out of the ground, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) won that election with an even bigger majority than it got in 2014.
Given the government’s overwhelming numbers in the current Lok Sabha, the outcome of the no-confidence motion moved by the Opposition in the 2023 monsoon session is a foregone conclusion.
During the 2018 Monsoon Session of Parliament, the Opposition moved a no-confidence motion against the Modi government.
Rarely has a debate on a motion whose fate is already sealed attracted so much national and even international attention.
Transformation of the battle lines is significant. This will be the first clash between a united Opposition and the BJP-led NDA.
A belated exercise in damage control is underway but it is clear from the attempts to corner Opposition-ruled states with the whataboutery that the Modi government as well as the BJP (which is in power in Manipur) are on the defensive.
The BJP believes that the Modi versus Rahul binary is its most effective narrative. This time, speakers including the PM, will have to tweak the formula.
Fighting a Perception Battle
The BJP will triumph again and is already boasting of netting more votes than its official strength in the Lower House. But this time, the Opposition seems to be better prepared. It is armed with a narrative that makes light of its impending defeat.
This is not a battle of numbers, opposition leaders have stressed. It’s a perception battle before the big face-off next year and they are hoping to seize the advantage despite the lack of firepower to take on Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s oratorial mastery.
Rarely has a debate on a motion whose fate is already sealed attracted so much national and even international attention.
Along with reports on the continuing violence in Manipur and the video showing two Kuki women being stripped, paraded, and raped, the foreign media has reported widely on the upcoming no-trust vote against the Modi government even as the outcome is known.
Why the Debate in 2023 is Significant
So what has changed between 2018 and 2023? Three factors mark the difference to generate an unexpected sense of anticipation for a parliamentary debate.
The first is the issue that has led to the no-confidence motion. A viral video finally pricked a nation’s conscience and opened its eyes to the horrors of the civil war ravaging Manipur for nearly three months amid official apathy, or as is being alleged now, official complicity.
The second is the transformation of the battle lines. This will be the first clash between a united Opposition and the BJP-led NDA.
It’s a foretaste of what is to come as both sides gear up for the mother of all battles in 2024.
The third is the absence of Rahul Gandhi. Modi’s favourite punching bag as well as his chief baiter will be missing from the House. He was stripped of his membership after he was convicted for two years in a defamation case.
Let’s take them one by one. In 2018, the Opposition, particularly the Congress, made the Rafale jet deal the main focus of its no-confidence motion, hoping to tarnish Modi’s image with corruption allegations. The tactic flopped miserably as the PM ripped back with a long list of the Congress party’s misdeeds and duplicity.
Memories of Anna Hazare’s anti-corruption stir against the UPA government were still fresh. Modi had the upper hand in the debate and used it to full advantage.
A Supreme Court ruling giving his government a clean chit in the deal further strengthened the PM’s Teflon coating on the corruption issue and the Congress party’s "chowkidar chor hai’’ campaign died away with a whimper.
Treading Sensitive Grounds
This time, the issues are graver and touch a raw nerve in a government that prides itself on the protection of national security and women’s empowerment. Ghastly videos of rapes in Manipur and undisputed evidence of the administration turning the proverbial blind eye to police complaints, have made a mockery of the hallmark "beti bachao’’ and "nari shakti’’ slogans.
The collapse of law and order and the descent into chaos in a sensitive border state that shares a porous boundary with Myanmar, exposes gaping holes in the national security establishment. Were intelligence agencies oblivious to the dangers of letting anarchy prevail in an area that has seen violent insurgency movements and harboured a deep sense of alienation for decades?
Modi’s decision to finally speak up on Manipur and the speed with which the Manipur state agencies have acted after the video of the two Kuki women surfaced are telling indicators of alarm.
A belated exercise in damage control is underway but it is clear from the attempts to corner Opposition-ruled states with the whataboutery that the Modi government as well as the BJP (which is in power in Manipur) are on the defensive.
A More United and Streamlined Opposition
Let’s take the second difference. Five years ago, the Opposition was fragmented (although there was a lot of talk about unity) and the Congress was consumed with a sense of its own importance. Today, they are going into the debate as a unified force of 26 parties. They have a name for their alliance, INDIA.
They are coordinating smoothly in Parliament with daily morning meetings. They are preparing for their third meeting where talks on seat sharing are expected to yield significant results.
What they lack in terms of powerful speakers, they hope to make up with a determined show of purpose and unity and speak in one voice.
The strategy has had moments of success in the ongoing session with the Opposition being able to hold its own against the vocal power of the BJP and at times, even shouting them down like they silenced External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar in the Rajya Sabha and prevented him from making a statement on the successes of the Modi government’s foreign policy.
A ‘Missing’ Rahul Gandhi From Parliamentary Affairs
Finally, the biggest handicap for the government: Rahul Gandhi’s absence. Let’s go back to that moment during the 2018 debate when Rahul Gandhi, after delivering a blistering attack on Modi for the Rafale deal, walked up to the PM and hugged him. He went back to his seat, smiled triumphantly, and winked at Jyotiraditya Scindia who was still in the Congress at that time.
Not only did Rahul Gandhi come across as non-serious with his attempts at showmanship, the smile and wink gave the impression of a schoolboy prank and seemed to confirm the BJP’s portrayal of him as an 'immature entitled dynast'.
Unsurprisingly, Modi lit into him in his 91-minute speech and mocked him for his impatience to occupy the PM’s seat.
It will be interesting to see how Modi handles the absence of someone who has inspired some of his most aggressive speeches. The BJP believes that the Modi versus Rahul binary is its most effective narrative. This time, speakers including the PM, will have to tweak the formula.
The no-confidence motion is a test for both the Opposition and the BJP. It will be defeated. But the debate will determine who is winning the perception battle even as fires continue to consume Manipur.
(Arati R Jerath is a Delhi-based senior journalist. She tweets @AratiJ. This is an opinion piece and the views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for the same.)
(At The Quint, we are answerable only to our audience. Play an active role in shaping our journalism by becoming a member. Because the truth is worth it.)