The more things change, the more they stay the same. This well-worn phrase aptly sums up the current state of affairs in the Opposition's INDIA (Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance) bloc.
In a repeat of what transpired in the run-up to the 2019 Lok Sabha election when opposition parties tried but failed to put up a united front against the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), the political drama going on at the moment is no different.
In fact, there is a striking similarity between the attempts made in the run-up to the last general election to put together a broad opposition alliance and the efforts made over the past few months by the opposition parties to prepare for a common fight against the BJP.
In both instances, there was a series of photo-ops showing the leaders of the disparate group of parties clasping hands and promising to put aside their differences for the larger good of challenging the BJP and saving democracy. This time, the opposition parties went a step further and found a name for their alliance, held a series of high-profile meetings, and constituted several committees to look at different aspects of their combined election strategy.
But as in the earlier case, ego clashes, state-level political rivalries, turf wars, and an unstated battle over leadership roles are threatening to unravel the six-month-old opposition alliance. Congress leader Rahul Gandhi’s Bharata Jodo Nyay Yatra is another bone of contention. The INDIA bloc parties believe that instead of going it alone, a joint campaign would have sent out a far more powerful message. The yatra, in its present avatar, is seen not as an effort to take on the BJP but as an exercise to refurbish Rahul Gandhi’s sagging image.
Congress Has Been Hit the Hardest by These Developments
In what is now becoming a pattern, Bihar chief minister and Janata Dal (U) president Nitish Kumar is keeping everyone guessing about his next move amidst reports that he is all set to stitch up an alliance with the BJP once again while seat-sharing negotiations in West Bengal and Punjab are proving to be the undoing of the opposition alliance. Chief ministers of both these states – Mamata Banerjee and Bhagwant Singh Mann - have declared that their parties will go solo in the coming Lok Sabha election.
Nitish Kumar is unhappy that he has not been named convenor of the INDIA bloc. At the same time, his relationship with the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) has been under strain for the past few weeks. Nitish Kumar’s recent remark that Karpoori Thakur never encouraged dynastic politics drew a sharp comment from RJD leader Lalu Prasad Yadav’s daughter on X, subsequently deleted, is the latest example of how far the two have drifted apart.
Of all the INDIA bloc parties, it is the Congress that has been hit the hardest by these developments. Trinamool Congress chief Mamata Banerjee is angry with the party for not stopping West Bengal Congress chief Adhir Ranjan Chaudhary from running an unrelenting campaign against her. She is also upset that the Congress party has delayed the finalisation of their seat-sharing arrangement.
While the Congress has pitched its demand high, Mamata Banerjee is not willing to part with more than two seats given the grand old party’s marginal presence in the state. She also wants the Congress to reciprocate the gesture by accommodating the Trinamool Congress in Meghalaya and Assam. Rahul Gandhi’s proximity to CPM general secretary Sitaram Yechury has added to the tensions between the Trinamool Congress and the Congress. As a result, Mamata Banerjee has made it amply clear that an alliance with both the Congress and the Left parties is out of the question.
In fact, the presence of multiple parties works to Mamata Banerjee’s advantage as the anti-Trinamool Congress vote then gets divided. A two-front electoral battle would only provide further space to the BJP which would automatically emerge as the beneficiary of the anti-establishment vote. As it is, Mamata Banerjee’s obsession with decimating the Left parties helped the BJP establish itself as the main opposition party in West Bengal today.
Regional Parties Can Afford to Negotiate From a Position of Strength
The Punjab story is no different. Like the Trinamool Congress, the AAP wants to protect its turf and expand its footprint. Having won a massive mandate in the assembly elections, the AAP obviously wants to build on this to improve its tally in the Lok Sabha. Since the Congress has seven sitting Lok Sabha members, it has asked for the same number of seats as its share. The AAP maintains that the Congress demand is unrealistic as the political landscape in Punjab has undergone a sea change since the 2019 Lok Sabha election.
There has been a steady erosion in the support base of the Congress over the last five years while the AAP graph in Punjab has shot up, having won 92 of the 117 seats in the 2022 assembly elections. The seat-sharing talks have also hit a roadblock as the AAP wants the Congress to accommodate it in Haryana and Gujarat just as the Trinamool Congress has asked for a fair share of seats in Assam and Meghalaya.
With its bargaining position weakened after its poor performance in the recent assembly polls, the Congress has been left with little choice but to respond with placatory statements. It is the regional parties that have the upper hand as they are comfortably placed in their respective states and are confident about taking on the BJP. They can afford to negotiate from a position of strength. It has been their contention from the very start that the parties with a strong presence in a state should have the final say in the distribution of seats among the allies.
As the biggest national party in the INDIA bloc, the Congress believes it is the fulcrum of the opposition grouping. But can it claim to emerge as a worthy challenger to the BJP, especially in states where the two parties are in direct contest. So far, the Congress record has been abysmal. Of the 128 seats in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Gujarat, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, and Karnataka, the Congress could win only four in 2019. The Congress has to up its game in these states as the survival of the opposition alliance depends on its contribution to the Lok Sabha kitty.
Paradoxically, the Congress is the INDIA bloc’s greatest strength but also its biggest weakness.
(The writer is a senior Delhi-based journalist. She can be reached at @anitaakat. This is an opinion piece and the views expressed are the author's own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for them.)
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