The Dance of the Dragon and the Elephant: Insights from Modi-Xi Meet

The jury is still out among those who spend copious hours reading body language and analysing on how Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi looked when he went to shake hands with the mostly poker-faced Chinese President, Xi Jinping.Many self-styled experts claimed that Modi seemed to have "surrendered" before his Chinese counterpart, while others felt that the Indian leader looked relieved at the opportunity to disengage from the US tariff chokehold. During the bilateral meeting between Jinping and Modi, it was evident that both neighbours have their work cut out for them. Much needs to be achieved in terms of rebuilding bilateral and strategic relations in order to clear the misunderstandings and harm perpetuated by both sides after the bloody encounter at Galwan in June, 2020. About 50,000 Chinese troops stand at the India-China border. The big question remains: will these troops return to their barracks?The Leader of the Opposition, Rahul Gandhi, has been alleging that China has occupied about 2,000 km of land in the Ladakh region. Though Gandhi was rebuked by courts and the BJP for his comments on China, accusations of land grab by China have not been directly denied by the Indian government either.What could be distressing for some in India is that the U-turn in ties is taking place too rapidly after the recent four-day-long military scrap between India and Pakistan, in which China was squarely blamed for supporting New Delhi's traditional adversary, Pakistan. In fact, India’s top General had claimed two months ago that Indian defence forces were fighting not just Pakistan but also China. In these circumstances, how has India made up with its hostile neighbour so quickly? Awakening Giants: Is The China-India Thaw Signaling A New Global Realignment?Expectedly, the reasons for this rapprochement have not really percolated to the grassroots level in India. On social media, many who swore by the Indian government's hard stance of China appear disappointed. Many have pointed out how Indian martyrs of Galwan have been betrayed by the Indian PM.In reality, New Delhi would have looked rather bad in global optics, had China and Russia not come to its diplomatic aid after the US chose to punish India for ostensibly buying cheap Russian oil and perpetuating a bloody war in Ukraine, (the White House recently called India the 'Laudromat of Russia').There are also many, obviously, who remain oblivious to how difficult yet necessary it has been for China as well to rebuild bridges with India. While the popular view is that India fell in China’s lap after the US rupture, China is in need of disengagement on the border and engagement in business without harming domestic politics.Post Galwan, India had not only been tough with Chinese businesses, but also banned investment et al. Chinese investments in Indian companies like Makemytrip.com had been going down. Similarly, China also withdrew its experts and machinery from the Taiwanese company, Foxconn, that was working with Apple.Inc in India.After the current thaw, China may restore resources to Apple’s India factory, given its interests are not by the Indian reading of 'China+1' strategy of avoiding investing only in China by diversifying business into other countries.However, both the neighbours suffer the dilemmas posed by the hyper-nationalist rhetoric of its ruling political class. Since Indian government agencies arrested executives of Chinese companies like Xiaomi and Vivo, and its enforcement agencies put them through the wringer, the ruling Communist Party (CP) of China has been running an anti-India campaign on its own social media, Weibo. The arrests and restrictions did not humour the Chinese leadership who made it abundantly clear domestically that they would not do business with India.During the meeting between the Indian and Chinese head of states, Jinping is learnt to have told his Indian counterpart that he needed the support of the Communist Party to normalise business ties with India.Jinping wanted Modi to meet and work closely with CP politburo member Cai Qi, who handles a lot of the Chinese premiere's work on behalf of the party, sources claim.Is China India's New Friend? Decoding Optics of Wang Yi's Delhi VisitIt has been gleaned by the author that Qi, who holds higher power than Foreign Minister Wang Yi, wanted to throw a banquet for PM Modi, but the Indian side blamed scheduling issues to turn down the invite. China watchers claim that the Indian government seemed to have ignored Qi's importance and decided to deal with only the official side of the administration. The US has no such issues with the Chinese. The economic czars of China, who belong to the party, He Lifang and Li Chenggang, routinely visit Washington and deal with the US. To the credit of the US government, it never sits on prestige and deals with anyone who is fielded by Beijing.Prime Minister Narendra Modi understands the sensitivities of dealing with China. Interestingly, India’s foreign secretary, Vikram Misri, decided to bail out China from allegations of its relationship with Pakistan and alleged support for cross-border terrorism. Misri said that China has been a victim of terror and it also promised to extend support on this issue. The Indian foreign secretary claimed that the two sides have agreed to four issues, “To strengthen strategic communication and deepen mutual trust; to expand exchanges and cooperation to achieve mutual benefit and win-win results; to accommodate each other's concerns; and finally to strengthen multilateral cooperation to safeguard common interests."The import of this agreement is that it will sort out the contentious border issue, restore missing trust between the two sides and ensure a non-discriminatory business relationship, which is cramping business between the two sides.Misri also claimed that both the sides agreed that they should not allow differences to turn into disputes. The Chinese President put it more colourfully, claiming that it is time for the “dragon and elephant” to dance. The US will hate this dance more when the big Russian Bear joins in too.Why SCO’s Statement on Pahalgam is Both a Win and a Compromise for IndiaWhile a friendship with China may (or may not) be good news for India in some ways, can India reconcile with losing the friendship of US while cozying up to autocratic strongmen like Jinping and Putin?Many believe that the US, through its trade advisors like Peter Navarro, is trying to fish in troubled waters by calling the Russia-Ukraine war an Indian war. Bizarrely, Navarro has gone many steps forward by claiming that only the Brahmins benefited from Russian oil. Is it a deliberate attempt to stoke a caste war in India or a slip of tongue on the part of the US trade advisor?Be that as it may, India has lost the US leverage to protect its PM and foreign policy interests from internal and external machinations. India must still be wondering about the implications of its act to snub the US' claim that it stopped the war with Pakistan.(Sanjay Kapoor is a veteran journalist and founder of Hardnews Magazine. He is a foreign policy specialist focused on India and its neighbours, and West Asia. This is an opinion piece. All views expressed are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for them.)

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The Dance of the Dragon and the Elephant: Insights from Modi-Xi Meet

During the bilateral meet between Xi and Modi, it was evident that the neighbours have their work cut out for them.

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Topics: Modi China Xi Jinping