Prime Minister Narendra Modi held an extensive meeting on Thursday with his council of ministers ahead of the 9 June anniversary of the unveiling of the third term of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) government at the Centre.
Unlike last year, when the government machinery and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) went loudly to the town to trumpet 11 years of achievements of the Modi government, the Thursday session of the Council of Ministers was held under the shadow of an unfolding energy crisis that threatens to take the shine away from the twelfth anniversary. The loud message from the Prime Minister to his ministers was pointed — reboot, get agile to meet challenges, and think out of the box for the next set of reforms in governance.
The meeting of the Council of Ministers predictably set off speculations of a likely Cabinet reshuffle. That chief of the BJP, Nitin Nabin, is also awaiting a nod from the Prime Minister and the Rashtriya Swayamsewak Sangh (RSS) to recast his team of the national office bearers, adds to Cabinet reshuffle speculations. The second anniversary of the Modi government also brings the NDA dispensation closer to the halfway mark in the third term. This opens up a window for appraisal of the incumbent ministers, while also scouting for fresh faces with special geographical footprints.
The Stage and The Agenda
The meeting of the Council of Ministers over the years has evolved a particular set up — presentations by a few ministries, reiteration to the commit of “Viksit Bharat by 2047”, spotlighting success stories, and a roundup of geopolitics with focus on the prime minister’s achievements on the world stage.
This template is repeated at each meeting of the Council of Ministers, BJP’s parliamentary party meeting, and also at the BJP’s Chief Ministers’ conclaves, held close on the heels of the Governing Council meeting of the Niti Aayog. The Prime Minister often pays keen attention to the presentations, and gives his thoughts to conclude the session. The thoughts are essentially actionable instructions. The PM, this time, asked the ministers to step up efforts and speed up decision making.
For the past six months, the Prime Minister’s Office (PMO) has been charging up the bureaucracy with the mantra of “Viksit Bharat by 2047”. The key aspect that has been rolled out is the file tracking system. At the click of the mouse, it can be found out which secretary is holding any particular file and to what length. Some of the secretaries have admitted that the bureaucracy now works under a heavy shadow of the file tracking system, and there is now a competition to release the file from one’s desk quickly. A delay naturally becomes a cause of an instant performance appraisal, they admit.
With the Babus on the watch, they are already speeding up decision making, and the ministers with just a few exceptions are more than willing to facilitate the quick disposal of the files. In the words of a senior official in the government, the PMO’s minute monitoring is shaping up a Team Modi, which consists of the bureaucrats and the ministers teaming up to quickly deliver on mandates or instructions received from the PMO. In the last one year, bureaucrats have, in batches, been sent to management institutions to pick up new skills, with focus on artificial intelligence.
Unveiling of Nitin Nabin's Team in BJP
The Prime Minister often speaks of his government as a team. This was stressed in his first print media interview with this author as the PM in 2019. As he seeks to convey the message that the Council of Ministers at the Centre is Team Modi, with collective responsibility as the core mantra, a large-scale rejig in the Cabinet automatically gets ruled out. This is for a simple reason — the incumbent ministers have the cover of the prime minister.
But it doesn’t mean that a few of the ministers can be dropped to make space for the new faces. The likes of Smriti Irani, Ravi Shankar Prasad, and Anurag Thakur were shown the exit doors in the past. That kind of pruning isn’t ruled out.
Observers may believe that the likes of Dharmendra Pradhan, who is facing internet heat due to the UGC controversy and the NEET UG paper leak, and Bandi Sanjay, whose son is allegedly mired in a sexual assault case, could be the likely candidates to exit the Council of Ministers.
But if the past holds a template, then the Opposition demands are seldom entertained by Modi in dropping his ministers. Modi drops a minister for reasons, which remain a mystery for years, while stoking speculations and gossip. But one parameter that can make an incumbent minister nervous is age. Those approaching 75 years will be nervous, as though unofficial, this is a ceiling, with a few exceptions, that’s applied in phasing out ministers.
With BJP president Nitin Nabin turning 47 years of age on 23 May, his team is likely to be a mix of the existing national office bearers of the party (for continuity) and new faces who will be younger. This limits the scope for Modi ministers leaving the council of ministers for a space in Nitin Nabin team.
Team Modi and Political Messaging
As the Central government is now seen as PMO-centric with bureaucracy in the dominant role, the role of the ministers is largely seen for political messaging.
A resounding victory in the West Bengal Assembly elections makes it incumbent upon the Prime Minister to bring more faces from the state to make a case for the big push in the 2029 Lok Sabha elections. The BJP’s eastward expansion may also make more pace for ministers from Odisha at the Centre.
The countdown for the 2029 Lok Sabha elections has begun for the Modi government. The West Asia crisis, a crashing rupee, and economic stress dull BJP’s bid for trumpeting ahead of the next election seasons. But the BJP arguably believes that perception management covers up for performance slippages. That may set the backdrop to the unveiling of a twelfth anniversary blitzkrieg to command an upper hand on the perception management from 9 June onwards for at least a month.
(The author is a senior Delhi-based journalist, with over two decades spent in tracing the BJP and Indian politics. This is an opinion piece and the views expressed are the author's onw. The Quint does not endorse or is responsible for them.)