The Indian government has inked a "peace agreement" with the outlawed United National Liberation Front of Manipur (UNLF), which is among the oldest insurgent outfits in the northeast that had, until now, steadfastly rejected the path of a negotiated settlement for the past several decades.
Home Minister Amit Shah hailed the development as a "historic milestone" expected to usher peace in the northeast and in Manipur.
The agreement entails the cessation of hostilities between the government and the UNLF, and is considered to be the beginning of a peace process for a negotiated settlement.
Eventually, and similar to the exercise witnessed with other rebel groups, there will be a submission of a charter of demands by the group followed by a series of discussions to hammer out an accord.
Brief History of the UNLF
The UNLF was founded on 24 November 1964 with Kalalung Kamei as the president, Thankhopao Singsit as the vice president, and Arambam Samarendra as the general secretary. Its objective is the establishment of an independent sovereign Manipur and to regain the state's "lost territory" from Myanmar.
The UNLF is the second rebel outfit to have emerged in Manipur’s Imphal Valley after the Communist Party of Manipur formed in 1948 with Hijam Irabot as the president.
It is also the third organisation from the valley so far to have come overground for a negotiated settlement with the government. In 2012, three factions of the Kangleipak Communist Party (KCP) had signed a tripartite ceasefire agreement with the state government and the Centre. The United People’s Party of Kangleipak (UPPK) did the same a year later.
Ceasefire With UNLF (Pambei)
Coming back to 2023, while some reports referred to a "peace agreement" with the UNLF, it is the "Pambei" faction of the outfit that has signed the agreement following months of informal discussions with the government.
Khundapram Pambei assumed charge as chairman of the outfit after Sana Yaima alias Rajkumar Meghen was apprehended in Bangladesh in 2010 and handed over to India.
The reasons that led to Pambei’s expulsion from the UNLF by the outfit’s central committee were mentioned in a press release issued on 28 February 2021.
He was accused of "anti-party activities" and of being a "real agent” of the Indian government who had violated the party’s constitution for "selfish interests." He was also charged with "accumulating financial assets" for his family and making efforts to grab government contracts.
Pambei’s faction hurled counter-allegations against the rival faction led by R K Achou Singh alias Koireng. A general assembly last year by Pambei’s group elected a new central committee and confirmed Pambei as the chairman of the organisation.
On 24 November, which was UNLF’s 59th Raising Day, the central committee of the anti-talks faction condemned the ceasefire inked by the Pambei faction. Again, on 2 December, a press release from the faction said that the decision by Pambei’s faction amounted to a "total betrayal" of the UNLF’s objective of restoring Manipur’s independence and sovereignty.
The Myanmar Trigger for the Ceasefire
The ceasefire agreement between the government and the UNLF’s Pambei faction would not have been inked without the Spring Revolution in Myanmar against the military regime which has been gaining strength, especially after Operation 1027 in October.
Operation 1027, which was orchestrated by a conglomerate of three resistance groups called the Brotherhood Alliance, has wrested a vast swathe of territory from the military junta in the northern Shan State bordering China.
Last month, the operation was extended to more areas in Myanmar including some zones along the India-Myanmar border in the Sagaing Region and the Chin State, such as Rihkhawdar and Khampat, where the military was compelled to relinquish control over many outposts and establishments.
Among the groups that had been collaborating with the junta in the Sagaing Region against the resistance movement are the outfits from Manipur’s Imphal Valley and the Shanni Nationalities Army.
On several occasions over the past (almost) three years, there were clashes between these outfits and the resistance groups. Last year, the Chin National Army attacked a camp of the PLA (People's Liberation Army of Manipur) at Tamu in the Sagaing Region. Over the past few days, there have been reports of more attacks against the KYKL (Kanglei Yawol Kanna Lup) and the UNLF in the same district that borders Moreh in Manipur.
There are as many as eight resistance groups or People’s Defense Force (PDFs) active in Tamu and more outfits deep inside the Sagaing Region and in the neighbouring Chin State. These groups are certainly better organised and equipped with greater firepower than last year which was apparent from the visit by this author to some conflict zones in Myanmar early this year, and the interviews given by functionaries and leaders of resistance groups.
The military does not seem to have the resources and the morale for a sustained counter-offensive against the resistance groups. So, regaining control of the territories that it has lost does not appear to be feasible in the near future.
The Manipuri and Shanni outfits including the UNLF (Pambei) that had joined hands with the junta as the Pyu Saw Htee militias could be compelled to duck for cover from the resistance squads who are also being actively assisted by bigger outfits such as the Kachin Independence Army.
It is too early to anticipate the precise turnout of events in the zones bordering India but the possibility of more groups following the footsteps of UNLF’s Pambei faction cannot be ruled out because they may not have the numbers and resources to withstand sustained attacks by the PDFs.
Another option for them could be to relocate to the Naga inhabited areas in the Sagaing Region contiguous to the eastern districts of Nagaland and Arunachal Pradesh, where the resistance movement against the junta could not strike roots.
But Where is Pambei?
On the UNLF’s 59th Raising Day on 24 November, the general secretary of the Pambei faction, Ch Thanil, spoke about the ceasefire agreement with the government at the newly established designated camp in Kakching Khunou and clarified that the process was not a "surrender" as speculated by some people.
Pambei, however, was not seen at the function.
He has been missing from a camp in the Sagaing Region since early this year and is believed to have been apprehended by the country’s junta while on a journey to Thailand.
His current whereabouts have become a topic of speculation among different sections of people. According to a source in Imphal close to the UNLF, Pambei has been released from jail and engaged in negotiations with the government for his return to Manipur.
An official of a security agency believes that he is still in the custody of Myanmar junta, who could be repatriated to Manipur very soon.
Some Numbers
The outfit with the biggest cadre strength in the northeast is the NSCN(IM) [National Socialist Council of Nagaland (Isak-Muivah)] with over 4000 functionaries. It is an overground group engaged in talks with the government for an agreement.
Among the separatist outfits, the UNLF had been known to have the highest cadre strength of over 2500 followed by the PLA.
Different estimates have been published about the actual strength of Pambei’s faction. One report pegs it at only 70 functionaries while another assumed there are no more than 400-500 in both factions who possess about 500 weapons of mixed categories.
Sources in security agencies were quoted by the media as saying that the strength of Pambei’s group is around 250-300 cadres.
The diverse opinions notwithstanding, some observers in Imphal and officials in security agencies claim that the Pambei group is only a fraction of the total strength of the UNLF.
(Rajeev Bhattacharyya is a senior journalist in Guwahati. This is an opinion piece and the views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for the same.)
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