Riding the wave of anti-incumbency, the Congress party won a sweeping victory in the 2023 Karnataka Assembly elections. Comfortably crossing the half way mark of 113, the party won 135 seats, an increase of 55 seats from the last state elections.
The Bharatiya Janata Party, on the other hand, which went to the polls with a campaign centred on Hindutva, Hijab ban, and 'Double Engine Sarkar', suffered huge losses in its southern stronghold and won just 66 seats, 38 down from the previous elections.
The Quint spoke to Chandan Gowda, Ramakrishna Hegde Chair Professor at the Institute for Social and Economic Change, Bengaluru, to better understand the Congress wave and the BJP's defeat in the Deccan state. Here are his takeaways.
"The Congress party was expected to perform well in the Karnataka assembly elections, but it was unclear how well it would do. The results yesterday clearly show that there was a groundswell of support for it."Prof Chandan Gowda
How Communities Voted
Firstly, the Lingayats in Mumbai Karnataka. Of the 15 scheduled tribe constituencies, except for 1 which went to the JD(S), everything else has been won by the Congress.
It is clear that the Lingayats in the ST reserved constituencies, who are influential in all these constituencies and shape the election results, have gone with the Congress party.
Sriramulu, an important tribal leader in the BJP, has not been able to help his party. That's one clear indication that the Lingayats have decided to punish the BJP for sidelining their leaders within the BJP.
Secondly, a larger section of the Vokkaligas in the Old Mysore region who had come to prefer the JD(S) over the Congress in recent years, have gone to the Congress.
Then, the consolidation of the Muslim vote behind the Congress party, on a bigger scale than last time, has helped Congress win big in the Old Mysore Region, as well as everywhere else in fact.
"In the Hyderabad Karnataka region, a few thousand Muslims would vote for the BJP candidate if that candidate cared for their well-being. But even in those areas, it looks like the Muslims have moved away from the BJP towards the Congress."Prof Chandan Gowda
And amongst the Dalits, the expected vote split between the left and right-hand Dalit communities that would help the BJP win some of the reserved SC constituencies doesn’t seem to have happened. A big chunk of the reserved SC constituencies has gone to the Congress party.
The Siddaramaiah appeal has also helped mobilise the various backward caste communities behind the Congress party. Almost all communities have supported the Congress in bigger numbers than before.
Did the Modi Blitzkrieg Campaign Help?
One can speculate whether the BJP's performance might have been even worse had PM Modi not done his rallies and roadshows. People are saying that his rallies have not been effective but they might have actually helped the BJP put up a better show.
Whose Votes Went to Whom?
Compared to the last election, the BJP's vote share has remained pretty much the same. The Congress vote share went up by nearly 5 percent and the JD(S) vote share dropped by 5 percent.
This does not mean that the JD(S) votes have shifted fully to the Congress. A portion of those votes have gone to the Congress and another portion to the BJP. The BJP has lost heavily to the Congress and made up for some of that loss by taking away some votes from the JD(S).
The BJP’s position is a bit like the Congress’ position in the last election: it has retained 36 percent of the votes, but has won 39 fewer seats than last time. It won 104 seats in the last election and now it has only 66 seats.
The Congress party had actually improved on its 2013 vote share in 2018 but won 42 fewer seats than it did in 2013. The roles are reversed now.
The BJP's vote share is spread across a larger territory which means that its vote share has remained the same without translating into the same number of seats as last time.
"The Congress's poll promises of a monthly stipend for the unemployed and women and 200 units of free electricity, which the party was able to successfully convey across the state, played a decisive role in a state which was feeling the brunt of price rise and unemployment."Prof Chandan Gowda
The Lingayat Swing
With respect to the claims that the Lingayats have betrayed the BJP, citizens have the right to change their minds, and have a right to decide who to vote for.
A few BJP leaders remarked on many occasions that they are a party of Hindus and not particular castes and that they did not depend on the support of Lingayats.
This sort of language has just not gone down well with the Lingayat community. They had backed them faithfully for years, and their leader BSY is side-lined along with other leaders from their community.
The question to bear in mind is whether this shift away from the BJP will prove enduring.
Who Will be Crowned King?
The question of who will become the CM, that is, Siddaramaiah or DK Shivakumar, is a tough one. Both have worked really hard and their combined efforts have culminated in this Congress victory.
Siddaramaiah's stature as an OBC leader has helped decisively as has DK Shivakumar’s skills at the difficult task of managing the election resources. We should see how the Congress party will arrive at their choice of CM.
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