Bollywood actress Kangana Ranaut’s fate in Himachal Pradesh's Mandi is shaping into an acid test for "Brand Modi". If she wins, despite all her shortcomings, it would confirm the Bharatiya Janata Party's (BJP) proposition that 2024 is indeed a "lamppost election."
In other words, Narendra Modi can swing a poll for any candidate (even a lamppost) who has his blessings with his charisma and oratory.
But what if she loses? Where does that leave "Brand Modi"?
The question hangs in the air, unspoken yet palpable after the Congress unexpectedly bowled a bouncer at The Chosen One by fielding Vikramaditya Singh, a local boy, recently crowned "Raja of Bushahr" (an erstwhile princely state in Himachal) and most importantly, son of the late (and popular) six-time chief minister Virbhadra Singh and sitting MP Pratibha Singh.
All of a sudden, what was supposed to have been a cakewalk for a Modi-Shah favourite is poised to become a hotly contested battle that will be closely watched, not just for entertainment (which Ranaut is already doling out in huge dollops with her motor mouth comments), but also for possible political implications.
Himachal is a tiny state that sends just four MPs to the Lok Sabha. It is legitimate to ask whether the Mandi outcome can actually impact national politics. Yet, this is one electoral battle that has assumed larger-than-life proportions because of the backdrop to the Ranaut-Vikramaditya clash and what it says about the state of play inside the two national parties and between them.
How the Congress Saved its Government in Himachal?
The story goes back to December 2022 when the Congress surprised everyone by wresting control of the Himalayan state from the BJP in spite of the huge resources the latter pumped into the Assembly election. After all, this is BJP president JP Nadda’s home state. It is also a state which was under Modi’s care as a prabhari when he was general secretary in New Delhi.
The prestige of both was at stake underlined by Modi’s fervent appeal to voters that a vote for the BJP was a vote for him because of his association with the state.
The heavy hand from the top did little to stop local rebellions. For the first time since Modi assumed the reins of power, a BJP state unit showed signs of unravelling with its famed discipline vanishing as 21 rebels contested as 'Independents' out of the 68 Assembly seats. Modi made personal phone calls to some of them, and Nadda tried his best to dissuade them. Nothing worked. The Congress won 40 seats.
The tables turned during the Rajya Sabha polls in February this year when the BJP stunned the Congress by defeating the latter’s high-profile nominee Abhishek Singhvi through a series of defections from the ruling party’s ranks. Six MLAs cross-voted for the BJP candidate Harsh Mahajan who was also a rebel from the Congress ranks.
It was clear that Virbhadra Singh's widow Pratibha and her son Vikramaditya played a major role in ensuring Singhvi’s defeat. The rebels, including Mahajan, are Virbhadra loyalists. Subsequently, the mother and the son too started making rebellious noises and for some days, it seemed that the Congress government in the state would fall.
The Congress party saved its government, thanks to some quick action but it was evident that Pratibha Singh and Vikramaditya Singh had opened channels to the BJP and were teetering on the edge.
It was then that Congress matriarch Sonia Gandhi stepped in. She had two private meetings with Pratibha Singh. The party swallowed its pride and decided to offer the Mandi seat to her son. It was a big climbdown and caught the BJP by surprise.
Why the Outcome of This Contest Is Important
The BJP had announced Kangana Ranaut’s candidature in the belief that it had wrapped up support from Virbhadra’s family and loyalists to ensure a smooth ride to victory for the actress.
Now, Ranaut has a contest on her hands.
To add to her woes, the rebellious mood in the BJP has not subsided. Among those giving headaches to the high command are former party president Maheshwar Singh who has demanded a review of the decision to give a ticket to Ranaut. He comes from the erstwhile royal family of Kullu which is part of the Mandi constituency.
Additionally, BJP leader and former minister Ram Lal Markanda has quit the party along with a large number of supporters, depleting the BJP strength in Lahaul-Spiti, both districts in Mandi.
Ranaut is a political novice and entirely dependent on "Brand Modi" for her campaign and victory. In contrast, Vikramaditya Singh is a seasoned politician and comes from a deeply entrenched political family.
If this is indeed a lamp post-election as the BJP hopes, Ranaut will win easily. The BJP will right itself, get rid of old troublesome leaders, and build a new party structure that bends to Modi’s will.
The Congress will continue to wither. Its shaky government is likely to fall and there could be a domino effect in other states where the grand old party is in power.
But if Ranaut loses, it could deepen cracks in a party that is slowly morphing into a modern version of Indira Gandhi’s Congress in which only one person matters. Indira Gandhi’s personality-driven politics started the organisational decay in the Congress for which the party is paying a heavy price today.
Modi’s BJP may be in danger of going down the same road.
(Arati R Jerath is a Delhi-based senior journalist. She tweets @AratiJ. This is an opinion piece and the views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for the same.)
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