Israel-Lebanon Ceasefire: Why Now and Will It Work?

Beginning Wednesday morning local time, Israel and Lebanon began a US-brokered ceasefire which will end more than a year of fighting between Israel and Hezbollah that has taken the lives of more than 3,500 Lebanese and 140 Israelis, besides displacing 60,000 Israelis and one million Lebanese.For a long time, Hezbollah had insisted that they would not agree to a ceasefire unless there was an end to the Gaza war.But they have changed their stance, having suffered devastating blows in recent months including the deaths of scores of senior commanders as well as their long-time leader Hassan Nasrallah, not to forget the destruction of their weapons and infrastructure.This actually enabled the Lebanese government, which has been a bystander in the conflict, to accept the US initiative to seal of ceasefire deal with Israel.In a speech at the White House, US President Biden said that the ceasefire agreement is intended to be a permanent one and that in the next 60 days, the Israel Defence Forces would withdraw from southern Lebanon, while the Lebanese military would be deployed in their place. He emphasised that Hezbollah would not be allowed to pose a threat to Israel or reconstruct its military infrastructure. The deal includes a US-led mechanism to ensure the implementation of the terms of the agreement.Hezbollah and the State: Lebanon's Future Looks as Turbulent as EverLebanon's Painful History and Israel's War Aims With HezbollahAlmost immediately after Hamas' terror attack on Israel on 7 October last year, Hezbollah joined the hostilities against Israel and kept up desultory rocket attacks on northern Israeli cities and settlements, while the Israelis targeted Hezbollah commanders in air attacks and drone strikes. But the fighting remained limited to a narrow strip of territory in northern Israel and southern Lebanon. But 60,000 Israelis were displaced from northern Israel on account of Hezbollah's attacks.Then on 16 September this year, Israel stepped up the hostilities after taking a decision that the residents displaced by Hezbollah attacks in northern Israel should be enabled to return. The hostilities took a dramatic twist the next day when Israel detonated thousands of Hezbollah pagers, killing 12 people and injuring thousands. Two days later, a similar explosive attack took place which targeted Hezbollah's walkie-talkie radios.The Israelis then stepped up their air attacks in southern Lebanon targeting Hezbollah facilities and commanders, without bothering too much about civilians who were collateral casualties. By the end of the month, they began to attack targets in Beirut and on 27 September, they succeeded in killing Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in an air attack, along with Abbas Nilforoushan, the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guards' deputy commander.At the beginning of October, Israel escalated the war further by launching a ground invasion of southern Lebanon, and at the same time, conducting widespread air attacks all across the country aimed at destroying Hezbollah.The big question is why Israel agreed to a ceasefire at this stage. The answer was provided by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who released a pre-recorded speech at the cabinet meeting that approved the ceasefire, which said that he supports a ceasefire in Lebanon for three reasons:It enables Israel to focus its energies on dealing with the threat from IranIt will enable the country to replenish its arsenal, presumably through US suppliesIt was to isolate Hamas in Gaza which Netanyahu sees as the primary adversaryA key role has been played by the US in getting the ceasefire going. It was worked out by the shuttle diplomacy of its envoy Amos Hochstein beginning in August this year. This required considerable effort on his part, as well as that of the US State Department. Difficulties in persuading the two sides to arrive at an agreement even led to the American envoy threatening to walk out of the talks.Amidst Israel-Hamas War, What Explains US' Diplomatic Largesse Towards Tel Aviv?One Year of Destruction in Gaza: Will Israel Be Held Accountable?The framework of the ceasefire has been set by UN Security Council Resolution 1701 which ended the 2006 Israel-Lebanon war. It commits Hezbollah to withdraw north of the Litani River in Lebanon and gives the responsibility of policing it to the Lebanese Army and the UN. The resolution also called for the disarmament of Hezbollah.But as we know, Hezbollah brushed aside the weak Lebanese Army, established itself in the southern areas of Lebanon and on the borders of Israel, and constructed a vast network of bunkers, tunnels, and rocket launch sites. This time around, the US and France are committed to ensure that the ceasefire terms are met. Hezbollah has been grievously wounded and there is little doubt that Washington and Paris will seek to push the Lebanese authorities to be more assertive in preventing its resurgence. Having experienced terrible death and destruction in the past months, the Lebanese could well act pre-emptively to contain Hezbollah.Given the fraught Middle East situation, the big question in everyone’s mind is: will the ceasefire even get underway? After all, there is a two-month period for it to be put in place.It’s true that Hezbollah has suffered grievous losses, but its ability to hit back at Israel has not quite been extinguished, as is evident from the recent rocket strikes on Israel. Prime Minister Netanyahu insists that its understanding with the US is that it will have the right to react if Hezbollah violates the agreement, adding bluntly that if the Islamist organisation tries to rearm itself, rebuild its shattered infrastructure in southern Lebanon, or bring rockets and launchers near the border, “we will attack.”But US officials insist that the Israeli prime minister was overstating the agreement and that the Israeli option could only be exercised in consultation with the US-French oversight mechanism if the Lebanese military did not deal with the situation.Will this ceasefire help in ending the Gaza conflict as well? Not necessarily, as indicated by Netanyahu.In his White House remarks, Biden said in the coming days, he would make another effort with Egypt, Qatar, and Turkey to push for a hostage release and ceasefire in Gaza as well. If such a deal was reached, the US would be ready to sign a “historic” deal with Saudi Arabia “along with a credible path” to the setting up of a Palestinian state and the full normalisation of Saudi-Israel relations. But this could well be a bridge too far and the crisis will inevitably spill over into the Trump administration.(The writer is a Distinguished Fellow, Observer Research Foundation, New Delhi. This is an opinion article and the views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for them.)'Hungry, Jobless, & Trying to Survive Israeli Raids in Lebanon': A Father WritesIsrael-Hamas War | Netanyahu's Military Quagmire in Gaza

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Israel-Lebanon Ceasefire: Why Now and Will It Work?

Will this ceasefire help in ending the Gaza conflict as well? Not necessarily, as indicated by Netanyahu.

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