The fires of the Israel-Hamas war are now threatening to burn the entire region.
On Saturday night, some 350 drones and missiles were launched at Israel by Iran, and though most were shot down, several missiles did hit some Israeli military facilities.
The world is now waiting to see if Israel retaliates, or as the Americans are suggesting, that having successfully dealt with the attack, Tel Aviv should declare victory and avoid further action against Tehran. As for Iran, its military mission at the United Nations (UN) announced that its military action had concluded.
Earlier on Saturday, the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) captured a partly Israeli-owned freight carrier in the Strait of Hormuz.
Some 17 of its 25 crew hail from India, and New Delhi has urgently taken up the issue of their detention with Tehran. Days earlier, Iran had threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz — the world’s most important shipping route for oil.
The incident shows how the war is generating ripples that are reaching our shores. India receives most of its oil from Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and the United Arab Emirates through the Strait of Hormuz.
The Indian Navy has already been active in guarding shipping in the Arabian Sea against attacks by the Houthis. Now India has advised its citizens not to travel to Iran or Israel and air routes have been diverted, increasing the travel time.
Israel's Military Capacity to Attack Iran and US Support
The Iranian actions are a retaliation for the strike at a diplomatic facility in Damascus on 1 April that killed Brig-Gen Mohammed Reza Zahedi and six other Quds Force officers. This force is one of the five branches of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) specialising in special operations abroad and intelligence. The United States (US) has designated the IRGC as a “terrorist” organisation.
Late Saturday, 185 drones, 36 Cruise Missiles and 110 surface-to-surface missiles were fired, most of them from Iran, although a few came from Iraq and Yemen. The first wave was a drone attack, which was tracked by the US and Israel for hours since they took time to reach Israel from Iran. The second wave involved cruise missiles and the third comprised ballistic missiles.
The Israelis said that they had shot down “a vast majority” of the projectiles. According to US officials, American forces too had intercepted dozens of missiles and drones, as did the United Kingdom, Saudi Arabia, and Jordan. Reports on X (formerly Twitter) said that the Iranians made seven hits on the Ramon Air Base and another seven on Nevatim Air Base in Israel, though the damage caused is not known.
The fact that Israel had been struck by missiles fired from Iran is being seen as an escalation in what was till now a proxy war between the two countries. Hitting a diplomatic facility required a direct Iranian response against Israel.
While Tel Aviv has had little or no problem in bombing Gaza to rubble, a clash with Iran could have far more baleful consequences. Israel hardly has the military capacity to launch a similar operation against Iran, and at most, it can launch aerial and commando raids. But its ally, the US, may find itself being pulled into a war in Southwest Asia just two and a half years after its ignominious exit from Afghanistan.
After six months of the war, US support for Israeli actions in Gaza is becoming increasingly conditional, but Washington has ensured that attacks from so-called Iranian proxies in the region have been countered. Now it has acted quickly to support Israel in defeating a direct attack from Iran.
According to President Biden, the US had moved aircraft and ballistic missile defence destroyers in the past week to defend Israel. He had issued a one-word warning to Iran — Don’t — and said that “the US was devoted to the defence of Israel.”
However, there is no doubt that the US and its allies are not happy with the Israelis for having launched the 1 April attack on the Iranian diplomatic facility. At one level, it indicated Israel's disregard for the views of its ally and protector, the US, and at another, it threatened to escalate and widen the Gaza conflict.
After the Iranian attack was largely foiled on Saturday, President Biden told Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that the US would not support an Israeli retaliation to the Iranian attack or participate in any offensive attack. The US is concerned that a response to the Iranian attack could lead to a larger regional war with catastrophic consequences. It should not be forgotten that Israel possesses nuclear weapons and the Iranians are close to achieving the capability.
Vantage Point: How Israel, Iran, and the US View the Latest Escalations
Ever since the beginning of the Israel-Hamas war, a shadowy proxy conflict has also been occurring between the US and Iran but neither side seems to want an all-out war which would have unpredictable consequences. As a part of this, there have been nearly 200 attacks on US military bases and assets in Syria, Iraq, and Jordan resulting in injuries to dozens of US personnel. The Americans have retaliated strongly, killing over 30 militants through air strikes.
The US maintains some 2500 personnel in dozens of facilities in Iraq, as well as 800 in Syria and some 200 in Jordan. They are there to conduct covert operations against the Islamic State and Iran-backed groups. The Americans also operate from two airbases in Iraq, Al Asad and Al Harir, both of which have faced militant attacks.
The US would not like to get involved in another war in the Southwest Asian region. It was forced out of Afghanistan in 2022 and in January, the Iraqi government indicated that they would like to negotiate a withdrawal of the remaining American forces in Iraq.
As for Iran, it lacks the capacity to take on the US, and its friends like China and Russia are, at best, lukewarm in their support. Iran’s air force uses 1970s vintage US aircraft and its navy is mainly a coastal force. The theocratic regime also has to worry about internal instability that has manifested itself in recent years, and a war at this juncture could well be fatal for it.
As for Israel, it needs to carefully study the lay of the land. There is little doubt that they now view Iran as their primary adversary. But they cannot deal with the huge country all by themselves, especially if Tehran crosses the nuclear threshold.
But current Israeli thinking is probably guided by Netanyahu’s sole aim of somehow staying in power. Projecting a “mortal threat” to Israel aids this project, as indeed, it helps distract global attention from the Gaza war.
(The writer is a Distinguished Fellow, Observer Research Foundation, New Delhi. This is an opinion piece and the views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for the same.)
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