The sudden and unauthorised visit of Benny Gantz, Minister without Portfolio in Israel’s war cabinet, to the United States lends credence to the view of my Israeli schoolmates and college friends that Prime Minister Benjamin "Bibi” Netanyahu is on his way out.
After five months of continuous attacks on the Gaza Strip, the Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) have been unable to free the hostages. The support of the masses for Netanyahu and his far-right coalition government is waning. People are now increasingly looking towards the centre-right parties.
If elections were to be held today, Benny Gantz, the centre-right leader, would get the majority votes.
Is Netanyahu Losing Support?
There is also a growing possibility of the ultra-orthodox parties – such as United Torah Judaism, Shas, and the religious Zionist Party – in the coalition government withdrawing support – resulting in the fall of government.
At present, the ultra-orthodox Jews are exempted from mandatory military service. For the secular Jews, a three-year conscription is compulsory.
In 2018, Israel's Supreme Court overturned the law waiving ultra-Orthodox men and women from military conscription, emphasising the necessity for responsibilities to be distributed equitably across Israeli society. Despite efforts, the Knesset, the Israeli Parliament, failed to devise a new framework.
The government-issued postponement on compulsory conscription of ultra-Orthodox individuals is set to expire this month.
How Withdrawal of the Far-Right May Impact Israeli Politics?
In the past, these extreme far-right have supported governments to maintain their parliamentary majority on the condition that ultra-Orthodox Jews will be exempted from military conscription. The present government is also heavily dependent on the far-right parties to help it maintain its slim majority.
However, on 29 February, PM Netanyahu said at a press conference, "We will determine goals for conscripting ultra-Orthodox people to the IDF and national civil service. We will also determine the ways to implement those goals."
In all likelihood, this statement will upset the balancing act required in Israeli politics. The far-right parties might withdraw support – causing the government to fall.
With a caretaker government in place, elections have to be held within six months. Perhaps this is the reason why Benny Gantz rushed to the US – to seek their support for a regime change. President Joe Biden will surely be happy to oblige.
Netanyahu-Biden Rift Concerning Gaza
Netanyahu got along famously with President Trump and the Republicans. Their close relationship resulted in the US embassy shifting to Jerusalem and the recognition of Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights. The Democrats were critical of these decisions.
When Biden defeated Trump, Netanyahu took his own sweet time in congratulating the president-elect.
Netanyahu's policies, particularly regarding Israeli settlements in the occupied territories and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, have been at odds with Biden’s positions. Biden and Democrats have expressed support for a two-state solution and have criticised Israeli settlement expansion.
Netanyahu's combative style and sometimes confrontational approach to diplomacy have also not endeared him to Democratic leaders, who prefer a more conciliatory and diplomatic approach to resolving the conflict in Gaza. Given their strained relationship, Biden surely can’t wait to see Netanyahu’s back. Nor can the Israeli masses.
With Benny Gantz in the saddle, there is hope for a hostage deal and a quick resolution to the Gaza conflict.
At the Other End of the Israel-Hamas War
Once the war ends, the Israeli masses will support a two-state solution with Palestine being administered by a coalition of Palestine Liberation Army (PLA) and the saner elements of Hamas under Saudi watch. It is felt that Saudi Arabia, given its opposition to nuclear Iran, can play a balancing role – though it is yet to sign the Abraham Accord. The defanged Palestine state will not be allowed to have any Armed Forces.
Hamas’s dream of eliminating the Zionist entity of Israel and establishing a Palestine state stretching from the Jordan River to the Mediterranean will be shattered. Palestine will become the Hong Kong of Israel.
Whatever happens, it is time for "Bibi” to say bye-bye.
(Akhil Bakshi a Fellow of Royal Geographical Society, Fellow of Explorers Club USA, and Editor of Indian Mountaineer, has authored 27 books including Between Heaven and Hell: Travels Through South Asia. This is an opinion piece and the views expressed are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for them.)
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