The inevitable is happening.
Nearly thirty months after the United States was forced to ignominiously withdraw its troops from Afghanistan, bringing its twenty-year-old occupation and war to an end, Narendra Modi’s government is pragmatically, albeit slowly, normalising relations with the Taliban regime in Kabul.
The inevitability of New Delhi’s changed attitude towards the Taliban is easily explained by three developments since August 2021, when the last contingent of American troops flew from Kabul airport in chaotic circumstances. First, Ashraf Ghani, the former Afghan president whose government had been recognised by India, fled the country ─ reportedly taking huge amounts of ill-gotten dollars with him.
Just a month earlier, when asked if American departure from Afghanistan would resemble the humiliating scenes from Vietnam in 1975, President Joe Biden had bragged, “None whatsoever. Zero.” He even exuded confidence that the Afghan military of 300,000 troops under President Ghani — “as well equipped as any army in the world” ─ would prevent the Taliban from capturing power. Biden was proved wrong on both counts. The American army’s escape from Kabul was reminiscent of the Fall of Saigon. Thereafter, Afghan soldiers offered zero resistance to a swift takeover by the Taliban, the main force that defeated the mighty American army and also, previously, the invading Soviet army.
Second, the Taliban government has since then completely consolidated its control over almost all parts of the country, brought much-needed peace and stability, and even taken initial steps towards reconstructing the war-torn economy. Nearly 35 countries have resumed their diplomatic missions in Kabul. Indeed, Chinese President Xi Jinping formally welcomed the Taliban-appointed Afghan ambassador in Beijing, the first country in the world to do so.
Third, and most important, the Taliban has sent clear and credible signals to New Delhi that it is not controlled by Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI). On the contrary, relations between Afghanistan and Pakistan have visibly soured in the past couple of years.
As a result, there are tell-tale signs of New Delhi giving up its earlier suspicion and reticence towards the Taliban. In November, Afghanistan’s diplomatic mission in India, led by an ambassador appointed by Ghani’s government, was closed. This has paved the way for it to be reopened with a Taliban representative in the near future.
On January 29, Indian diplomats participated in a 10-nation conference in Kabul. Called the ‘Regional Cooperation Initiative, it was chaired by the Taliban’s foreign minister Amir Khan Muttaqi. In another significant gesture, the Indian Embassy in the UAE invited the Taliban’s representative in the country for Republic Day celebrations in Abu Dhabi.
Seen against this backdrop, the question is not ‘if’ but ‘when’ India will fully normalise diplomatic relations with the Taliban-ruled Afghanistan. The sooner the better.
Is a new and peaceful Afghanistan truly emerging, overcoming four decades of deaths and destruction wrought by war and internal strife? Why is it necessary for India to have normal, indeed close and cooperative, relations with our extended western neighbour?
I could not have found a better Afghan to discuss these and related questions than Suhail Shaheen, a veteran Taliban leader and head of the Political Office of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan (IEA) in Doha. He is also the Islamic Emirate's designated Permanent Representative to the UN. I met him in Qatar’s capital in the second week of February.
The author with Suhail Shaheen.
(Photo: author)
Shaheen shot to fame before and during the cataclysmic events in 2021 that saw the sudden collapse of the US-backed Ghani regime in Kabul. The Taliban had earlier captured power in September 1996 and imposed an extremist rule. However, they lost power after al-Qaeda’s terrorist attacks in the USA on 11 September 2001. Osama bin Laden, al Qaeda’s leader and the mastermind behind the attacks, had sought shelter in Afghanistan. This provoked the US to launch an attack on the hapless country, and its war continued for the next two decades.
Given this past, the Taliban’s second takeover of Afghanistan has created grave misgivings in the international community. But Shaheen explained his organisation’s perspective in the new circumstances.
As a resistance fighter, he was part of the resistance against both the Soviet and American armies. Thereafter he served as the editor of the Kabul Times, the state-owned English-language newspaper. He was later appointed to Afghanistan's embassy in Pakistan as a deputy ambassador. In 2011, he was sent to the capital of Qatar to be a member of the Taliban team negotiating with Americans on the terms of their withdrawal from Afghanistan.
'Today There is No Support for Any Terrorist Outfit in Afghanistan'
At the very start of our two-hour-long conversation, Shaheen, now 65 years old, told me he strongly believes that “normalizing Afghan-India relations and taking it to the level of centuries-old friendship is in the interest of both countries.” Addressing a key concern of India, he added: "The IEA (Taliban) government is firmly committed to the principle that we shall not allow anybody to use Afghanistan's soil against India or any other country."
Although he did not name anyone, he was indirectly alluding to several terrorist attacks on Indian targets, especially Indian diplomats, inside Afghanistan. In the worst such attack by a suicide bomber on the Indian embassy in Kabul in July 2008, 58 people were killed. “I had condemned these attacks. The Taliban had no role in them,” he said.
Recent months have seen considerable deterioration in Afghan-Pakistan relations. Pakistan blames Kabul for supporting the Tehreek-e-Taliban-e-Pakistan (TTP), an umbrella organization of various militant groups operating along the Afghan–Pakistani border.
“We have nothing to do with Pakistan’s TTP,” Shaheen said, adding that Islamabad’s angry decision to expel several million Afghan refugees is an “unjust pressure” tactic. “We want friendship with Pakistan, but we shall not bow down under pressure,” he said. To drive home his point, he cited a Pashto proverb ─ “A proud Afghan will prefer to go to hell in friendship, but you will never be able to take him to heaven with enmity.”
“Today there is no place or support for any terrorist organisation in Afghanistan. Our sole focus is on the reconstruction of our country. For this purpose, we want to have positive relations with all countries, especially all the countries in our region. Within Afghanistan, we have announced an amnesty to all forces fighting against us during the previous regime. We want to come out of the cycle of hatred and violence. We have not confiscated their property. We want national unity and reconciliation.”
Talking about national unity, the Taliban leader said that Hindus and Sikhs in Afghanistan, who are Afghan nationals, enjoy complete protection in the Islamic Emirate. “There is no discrimination against them. Their places of worship are safe. We want those who have left our country in the years of turmoil in the past to return to Afghanistan and participate in nation-building.”
Sadly, India-Pakistan hostility has created a difficult and complicated situation for Afghanistan. Shaheen gave a careful response when I probed his thoughts on this matter. “With the exit of American troops from our country, a historic new opportunity has presented itself before regional countries. All of us have two options ─ rivalry or cooperation. We should decide which option we choose. If we choose rivalry, external powers will once again re-enter our region, exploit our differences, re-establish their hegemony and wreak havoc. On the other hand, if we choose cooperation, all of us should take clear, firm and speedy steps in that direction.”
Shaheen underscored the geo-strategic importance of the location of Afghanistan. In previous centuries and also during the Cold War period, its location became a cause for the ruinous ‘Great Game’ between rival imperial powers.” Afghanistan is the Heart of Asia. If the heart is healthy and strong, the body becomes healthier and more robust.”
‘India is Taking the Right Steps to Normalise Relations With Kabul. But the Process is Very Slow and Needs Acceleration’
I asked him what in his opinion were the main hurdles in resetting India-Afghanistan relations. He identified three problems. First, India should shed the suspicion that the Taliban is “close to Pakistan” and “against India”. Second, there is a lack of trust and understanding among Indians about the Taliban. “Not many Indians realise that the Taliban are Afghanistan’s freedom fighters. They have strong national pride. As a patriotic organisation, they regarded it as their duty to fight against foreign invasion and occupation. Would Indians not resist with arms if our country were invaded and occupied by a foreign army?”
Shaheed mentioned the colossal price that the Afghan people paid to regain their freedom. “Two million Afghans lost their lives before we defeated the Soviets. Thereafter, 300,000 Afghans perished in the resistance before we defeated the US-led NATO forces.” At this point, I said, “As an Indian, I feel sad that, even though ours is the largest and most important country in the region, we could not do much to stop the two wars and lessen the pain and suffering of our Afghan brethren.”
According to Shaheen, the third problem in the progress of India-Afghan relations is the lack of speed. Even though India is taking the right steps to normalise relations with the Taliban-governed IEA, “the process is very slow and it requires acceleration”. He opined, “There should be a sincere commitment to improve relations. India should make a beginning with easing the problems faced by Afghan students in your country and issuing visas to Afghan patients coming to seek treatment in Indian hospitals. On our part, we are fully ready to remove all hurdles in cooperation with India. India and Afghanistan have already wasted the past two or three decades. We should now expeditiously make up for the lost time and opportunities.”
One of the most beneficial opportunities for India is to invest in building Afghanistan’s infrastructure. This will no doubt help the wheels of its economy move faster. But it will also yield major gains to India’s economy.
Being a land-locked country, Afghanistan needs modern road, rail, trade and energy connectivity with neighbours and the rest of the world. China is already building an ambitious highway, to be followed by a railway line, through the Wakhan Corridor, where the two countries share a 92-km border. On its part, India is building the Chahabar seaport in southeastern Iran, which has direct access to the Indian Ocean. It can be connected to Afghanistan through a railway line. This project can give India much-needed access not only to Afghanistan (bypassing Pakistan) but also to the much larger Central Asia and Eurasian landmass, including Russia. It can also bring Afghanistan into the ambitious International North–South Transport Corridor (INSTC), a 7,200-km-long multi-modal network of ship, rail and road routes for carrying freight all the way from Mumbai to Moscow, and onward to Europe. “Fortunately,” Shaheen mentioned, “Chahabar is exempted from American sanctions on Iran. Therefore, India should expedite the completion of this connectivity project.”
The second major opportunity for Afghan-India cooperation, Shaheen mentioned, is in the area of agriculture. Afghanistan is currently building the 285-km-long Qosh Tepa Canal Project bringing waters of the Amu River in Balkh province to the fertile farmland in Faryab province. This can bring three million acres under irrigation. “When completed, this project will give a big boost not only to horticulture but also to the cultivation of rich varieties of wheat. Afghanistan will actually become the next Ukraine in wheat exports. India with its highly developed farm technologies, should participate in this transformative project.”
A third big opportunity for Indian businesses is in the energy sector. Afghanistan, Shaheen said, has enormous natural gas reserves amounting to 15 trillion cubic meters. Afghanistan also has huge deposits of precious stones, which can be polished in the country itself and then exported.
“What about tourism?” I asked. I had a reason for asking this question because Shaheen and I were sitting at a seaside tourist resort in Qatar. This tiny desert nation of just 3 million population (only 15% of them are Qatar Arab nationals) attracted 4 million foreign tourists in 2023.
“Yes, our country has a lot of beautiful and unexplored attractions,” Shaheen said. “Just to give one example, the province of Nuristan has a temperature of only 20 degrees centigrade even in summer. It is full of forests and charming orchards of pistachio, pomegranates and other fruits. Afghanistan now has peace and stability. If rich Indians can travel around the world for vacation, why shouldn’t they come to Afghanistan? Our people are extremely hospitable, and they would warmly welcome Indian tourists. Indeed, there is an urgent need to enhance people-to-people contacts and journalists’ visits between our two countries.”
'Rehabilitation of Poppy Farmers, Widows, Orphans, Disabled…there is a Lot That India Can Do to Help Afghanistan'
There are also other opportunities for Indian participation in humanitarian activities. As a result of the devastation of the economy by four decades of war, nearly two-thirds of the country’s population of 43 million is grappling with acute poverty. Malnutrition is rampant. The public health system is in a state of disrepair. Even though the US spent $2.26 trillion in Afghanistan between 2001 and 2021, the vast majority of the country’s population remained extremely poor and neglected.
As the most prosperous nation in the neighbourhood, India has a moral and civilizational duty to help Afghanistan in its hour of need. Doing so will also bring enormous goodwill to India.
“The Taliban government,” Shaheen said, “has completely eradicated poppy cultivation, which itself is a great service to humanity since it will reduce the production of drugs. However, as a result, as many as two million Afghan farmers who used to grow poppy have lost their incomes. These farmers need to be rehabilitated with alternative sources of agriculture and agro-based livelihoods.”
India should help Afghanistan in this regard because narcotics are a growing menace in our own country and around the world. Indeed, there is an urgent need for the United Nations to take the lead in bringing all the major countries together, including the United States, in a major anti-narcotics campaign. This can benefit both Afghanistan and the world at large.
Afghanistan is currently grappling with another serious problem, which too is a legacy of the era of wars. It has 650,000 orphans and widows registered with the Ministry of Martyrs, Widows and Orphans. An estimated 800,000 Afghans also suffer from a range of severe disabilities. Shouldn’t the Indian government, along with Indian philanthropic organisations and NGOs, not participate in Afghanistan’s efforts to rehabilitate such people with education, skill development, vocational training and medical care?
Afghanistan is also in dire need of hospitals. Tens of thousands of Afghan patients go to Pakistan and Iran for medical treatment. However, Indian hospitals and doctors enjoy the highest reputation in their eyes. “We would definitely welcome Indian companies to build hospitals in our country, either on their own or through joint ventures,” Shaheen said. “We also welcome Indian professors to come and teach at Kabul University and other universities.”
Our conversation couldn’t have been complete without a talk about cricket. “Your cricketers have become hugely popular in India,” I said. “Yes, so are Indian cricketers in our country,” Shaheen responded. “And we are grateful to BCCI for its support to the development of cricket in Afghanistan.”
As I said goodbye to Shaheen, I said to him, “My best wishes to the fraternal people of Afghanistan. India, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iran, China, Russia and all other countries should work together to change the destiny of the whole of Asia, making it a region of peace, prosperity and harmony for all.”
Postscript
UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres convened a two-day conference on Afghanistan in Doha on February 18-19. Representatives of more than two dozen nations participated in it, which was aimed at promoting intra-Afghanistan dialogue between its Taliban rulers and other political groups.
This effort became a non-starter because the Taliban government refused to attend the Doha meeting when the UN rejected its demand to act as Afghanistan’s sole official representative. Guterres said this condition was unacceptable, as this was tantamount to recognizing the Taliban as the country’s legitimate government.
The failed UN conference has shown that the Taliban cannot be coerced by outsiders, in particular Washington and the European Union, into talking to other Afghan groups. This purpose can be best achieved by Afghan people themselves through their own internal and nonviolent interactions.
However, the Doha conference did have one positive outcome.
Many participants, including the UN Secretary-General, expressed concern at the Taliban government’s ban on girl’s education. This ban is retrograde. The government has to change its policy first and foremost for Afghanistan’s own social progress, and also for the Taliban to improve their image globally. Afghan women are strong and highly capable. Without their courage and sacrifice, the country couldn’t have defeated two mighty superpowers. Now, in conditions of peace, they can contribute immensely to building a prosperous, harmonious and caring Afghanistan.
There is more evidence that Afghanistan still has a long way to go before it frees itself completely from its own medieval past. There is global opprobrium over the public execution by the Taliban last week of criminals convicted of murder. Such inhuman ways of dispensing justice will make it difficult for the international community to fully normalise relations with the Taliban-governed Afghanistan.
However, now that foreign occupation has ended, all sections of Afghan society should slowly come together to rebuild their nation with their own efforts. This will surely accelerate desirable reforms in many spheres of social and political life.
Winds of change are currently sweeping across the Muslim world. Highly conservative countries like Saudi Arabia, Qatar, UAE and other countries in West Asia are embracing liberal social mores. Afghanistan, too, will change.
(The writer, who served as an aide to India’s former Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee, is the founder of the ‘Forum for a New South Asia – Powered by India-Pakistan-China Cooperation’. He tweets @SudheenKulkarni and welcomes comments at sudheenkulkarni@gmail.com. This is an opinion piece and the views expressed are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for them.)
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