Pakistan Army's chief, General Asim Munir, has spoken again, and it is imperative for the government of India to analyse each word. It is important, in fact, for India’s security establishment to keep a close watch on the tone, tenor, and content of the General’s utterances.
The last time General Munir spoke, his comments on Kashmir being Pakistan’s 'jugular vein' were dismissed by India as mere rhetoric, as an iteration of an oft-stated view.
What followed soon after was the horrific attack in Pahalgam on 22 April, when terrorists walked out of the woods and brutally killed 26 tourists at point blank range. The tourists—apart from a Kashmiri pony guide—were identified by their religion and shot dead.
The Narendra Modi government, known for its muscular policy, responded through Operation Sindoor, and attacked terror infrastructure as well as military airfields deep within Pakistan. Both sides, India and Pakistan, agreed to a ceasefire after a tense, four-day escalation that brought the neighbouring countries to the precipice of war.
A Speech Worth Dissecting
It is not always the sound of guns and the flurry of drones that need a deep analysis. The pauses, the phases of tentative peace thereafter need a considered deep dive. Every word, every action needs scrutiny, and Munir’s speech, delivered at Pakistan’s Naval Academy on 28 June, needs to be studied with care and caution, particularly because of its multiple references to Kashmir.
Here is some of what he said, culled from various YouTube videos of his speech in Karachi on 28 June. “What India tends to term as terrorism is in fact the legitimate struggle as per the international conventions. Those who endeavoured to subdue the will of Kashmiri people and sought conflict elimination instead of resolution have made it more relevant and pronounced through their own actions,” Munir told a gathering that included diplomats and top military and civilian officials.
Promising to continue support, the General, who went on to become a Field Marshal after Operation Sindoor, also said:
“We stand firm with the Kashmiri people for their right of self-determination for the resolution of the internationally recognised long-standing dispute in accordance with the UN Security Council resolutions and the aspirations of the people of Kashmir.”
Kashmir, Religion and Munir’s Identity Politics
Munir, often referred to as ‘Hafiz’ or ‘Maulvi’, or one who has memorised the Quran and often quotes from it, stated, unequivocally that regional peace will forever remain elusive, and that there would be a “perpetual danger of conflict” without a “just and peaceful resolution” of the Kashmir issue.
Several army chiefs and Pakistan’s prime ministers and ministers have often referred to Kashmir but Munir’s speech is important because, as senior diplomat KC Singh pointed out in a conversation with The Quint,
“Munir has revived the Kashmir issue that Delhi thought it had buried. Delhi, in fact, had lulled itself into believing that Pakistan was on the downslope.”
The Trump Factor and a Shift in Optics
There is another reason why Munir’s emphasis on Kashmir bears analysis. His address in Karachi comes a few weeks after his extraordinary meeting with US President Donald Trump. The meeting was extraordinary for multiple reasons.
Munir is Pakistan’s first army chief to be feted by a US President. Let us not forget that the Joe Biden administration that preceded Trump, did not even have a phone conversation with any of Pakistan’s leaders; military or civilian.
The timing of the lunch is also important. It was hosted after Operation Sindoor, when all-party delegations travelled to 32 different countries, including the US, to sensitise the world to the danger of terrorism emanating from Pakistani soil. While all nations sympathised with India, almost none called Pakistan out by name.
Trump had no qualms in being the first President to break bread with a Pakistani General who is not also the country’s President.
In fact, Trump, to the contrary, sees himself as the international crisis manager and has now spoken over a dozen times about how he got Munir and Modi to de-escalate when “the two were going at each other.” The re-hyphenation is not something that the Indian government takes kindly to, but the US President is not deterred.
Trump has, in fact, expressed the hope that India and Pakistan would, someday, sit down “for a nice dinner” but despite the US President’s rather casual style of diplomacy, the one thing that is not happening in the foreseeable future is any sit-down meeting between India and Pakistan.
What is happening, and publicly so, is the ratcheting up on rhetoric that is both high-pitched and volatile. While Modi and his government have laid it out straight through various statements that terror and talks can’t go hand in hand, blood and water cannot flow together, India will not fall for Pakistan’s nuclear blackmail, and India will not distinguish between state and non-state actors, Munir, too, is upping the ante.
After his return from Washington, he was criticised for the possibility of Pakistan being called in to allow its airbases to target Iran, but Munir has clearly emerged from the shadows to proclaim himself as Pakistan’s most powerful man.
He doesn’t need to make himself the President. The civilian government run by Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif was quick in honouring him with the title of Field Marshal.
From Pahalgam to Partition Redux
“Munir is riding high. His statements and tone towards India are getting more and more strident,” senior diplomat and strategic analyst Vivek Katju told The Quint, after hearing the General’s latest speech from Karachi. According to Katju, “India has to monitor Munir’s statements very closely because they impact India’s national interests.”
Munir’s statement just before the Pahalgam attack was an example of how and why his intentions need to be scrutinised. Barely a week before the killing of tourists at the Baisaran meadow, Munir, while engaging with overseas Pakistanis, had clearly laid out what he perceived to be the clear difference between Pakistan and India.
"You must tell the story of Pakistan to your children so that they do not forget the story of Pakistan. Our forefathers thought that we are different from the Hindus in every possible aspect of life. Our religion is different. Our customs are different. Our traditions are different. Our thoughts are different. Our ambitions are different…That was the foundation of the two-nation theory that was laid there, that we are two nations, we are not one nation.”General Asim Munir
Munir actually held a mirror to his own mind when he re-endorsed the two nation theory and underlined the differences between Hindus and Muslims. Munir views Kashmir—India’s only Muslim-majority area—as an intrinsic part of Pakistan’s national identity.
Not just that, the General sees it as a religious issue, and therefore, has used both Kashmir and the two-nation theory as the two core issues to highlight through his public speeches. Identity and religion also lie at the heart of how Munir frames foreign and defence policy.
India Must Look Inward While Watching Outward
Both Munir and Modi are aggressive messengers; each driving home their respective points; each addressing their core religious communities.
The same Munir, who was under pressure economically, politically, and militarily with Pakistan’s youth and middle class openly vying in favour of jailed leader Imran Khan, is now breathing easier after lunching with Trump.
Even before offering to propose the US President’s name for the Nobel peace prize, Pakistan had secured a package from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and Munir had bought himself breathing room through the narrative that he and the armed forces had answered India’s strikes by downing some ‘enemy’ planes, a fact Indian officials admitted to, without giving out precise numbers.
Munir still has to contend with the threat being posed by the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan and the Balochistan Liberation Army, but in the war of narratives between India and Pakistan, the General has been able to play the victor card.
The General Is Here to Stay
He is not only riding high, as Katju said, he is also honing and chiselling his image as the saviour of Pakistan despite credible evidence of the fact that Operation Sindoor hit terror and military targets with precision.
India was caught off-guard in Pahalgam, with not one person in uniform anywhere near the meadow where innocent blood was shed. Moving into the future, India’s security establishment needs to plug the holes and keep Munir and his utterances in clear sight.
The jihadi General, who got his officers to attend the funerals of terrorists at the Jaish-e-Mohammed headquarters targeted by India, also frames terrorists as ‘Kashmir’s liberators.’
Another lesson for India is that it cannot count on the US or other world capitals to wage its battle against terrorism.
The most bitter truth is this: Munir is here to stay. A five-year extension in November is only just a formality. The General will stay in his labyrinth. He has learnt the art of manoeuvrability and taken centre stage.
(Harinder Baweja is a senior journalist and author. She has been reporting on current affairs, with a particular emphasis on conflict, for the last four decades. She can be reached at @shammybaweja on Instagram and X. This is an opinion piece, and the views expressed are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for them.)