Well over a year since the first round of military talks were initiated on June 6, 2020, between India and China, the two nuclear-armed rivals, the essential impasse continues. The crucial and specific issue of the restoration of the status quo ante remains officially unanswered. Post the first round of talks, bloody and escalatory incidents like the Galwan valley skirmish (and more thereafter) have taken place. The overall first mover and disrupter of the theatre’s long-held status quo is undoubtedly China. The much-bandied talks towards de-escalation and disengagement are now predicated to the revised set-pieces of ground ‘holding’, to the overall detriment to India. In the hardball game of negotiations, the chips of bargainable elements, patience and reciprocity, are decidedly in the favour of the Chinese as they are content to drag, postulate and assert their new ground ‘holding’ positions, with no pressure to conclude.
At the recently concluded 12th round of military commanders’ talks, areas like Depsang, Gogra Post, Hot Springs, and Patrolling Points 10, 11, 11A, 12, 13, 15 and 17A were believed to have been discussed. The exact ramifications of possibly the shortest of all the joint meetings so far are expected to play out in the coming weeks. Certain measures like establishing ‘hotlines’ at key friction points were amongst the earliest signs of positivity, though the usual language of platitudinous reassurances does not count for much in negotiations with the Chinese, for whom deceit is an integral component of governance and diplomacy.