In the 27-year chronicle of Taiwan's democracy, a pattern had emerged: no single party won three consecutive presidential terms. This historical trend has been upended by the victory of Lai Ching-te, the incumbent Vice President, who shall succeed President Tsai Ing-wen, marking a third term for the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP).
Lai's win, capturing over 40 per cent of the vote and defeating Kuomintang's (KMT) Huo Yu-ih and Ko Wen-je of Taiwan’s People’s Party (TPP), may not only be the most critical result of Taiwan's eighth democratic presidential election on 13 January, but it also stands out in a year witnessing over 60 national elections globally.
As President Tsai Ing-wen's eight-year tenure concludes, due to constitutional term limits, the stage was set for a new leader. Amidst the domestic play and global gaze, the elections were framed within a stark dichotomy: a choice between war and peace, predominantly shaped by each candidate's policy towards China. This policy has become the fulcrum of both domestic concerns and international interests.
War, Peace, and Status Quo
Lai Ching-te has been an advocate for Taiwan’s de facto sovereignty and strengthening ties with the United States (US). Lai’s running mate, Hsiao Bi-khim, a former envoy to the US, has herself faced sanctions from China over secessionist accusations.
The president-elect was also quick to shape his victory as one of Taiwanese democracy against the looming shadow of authoritarianism. His pro-independence narrative, however, was noticeably moderated during the campaign, perhaps reflecting a strategic move to appeal to a broader electorate.
On the other side, Huo Yu-ih, the Mayor of Taipei from the KMT, preferred a policy closer to the spirit of the 1992 consensus, an agreement between the then KMT government and China, advocating for tighter bonds with the mainland. He was also against the longer conscription policy. Ko Wen-je criticised both extremes, suggesting a middle path that will involve engaging with China as well as shoring security through engagement with the US and its allies.
Although, upon closer inspection, all three positions are different rationalizations for maintaining the existing status quo. DPP's position that Taiwan need not pursue further change since it is already independent is a testament to this.
The Big Brother: China’s Looming Shadow
Cross-strait relations have deteriorated to unprecedented lows over the past decade. President Xi Jinping's coercive tactics—squeezing Taiwan's international space, limiting cross-strait activities, and military threats—have been a response to the DPP's pro-US stance. With only 13 countries maintaining formal diplomatic ties with Taiwan, international isolation due to the One China policy is a major concern.
The US, despite having switched recognition from Taiwan to China in 1979, has nonetheless maintained close unofficial relations with Taiwan. While the US is legislatively bound to come to Taiwan's defense, successive administrations have adopted ambiguity over the question of protecting Taiwan from Chinese invasion.
The last decade, however, has seen a tangible bolstering of defense and arms support to Taiwan. Last year, Taiwan also joined the "Fab 4" chip alliance. President Biden's decision to send a delegation after the election further underscores the importance of Taiwan.
The spectre of Chinese interference has been a constant shadow over the elections. In the days leading up to the elections, allegations of Chinese meddling proliferated—propaganda efforts against DPP, military posturing with fighter jets, mysterious balloons, and naval vessels violating Taiwan’s maritime and Airspace. The Taiwanese Defence Ministry called it China’s psychological warfare against Taiwan.
A notable incident occurred on 9 January when an emergency alert created confusion across Taiwan. A Chinese science satellite deviated in its trajectory, crossing Taiwanese airspace. The message in Chinese referred to a satellite, but its English translation sparked alarm by mentioning a "missile" instead. One can only speculate its effect on the electorate.
Beyond Great Power Politics
While the Sino-American rivalry looms large, the domestic agenda remains vital. Ko Wen-je and his TPP, founded in 2019, sought to capitalise on public discontent with the establishment by focusing on domestic issues such as rising prices, stagnant wages, and unaffordability.
Despite the TPP's loss, Ko's capture of nearly a quarter of the votes signals a growing electorate frustration with the traditional parties. Notably, the TPP has gained popularity among the youth, particularly first-time voters, although early analyses suggest this demographic did not turn out in significant numbers.
Taiwan has also distinguished itself as one of the most gender-sensitive democracies, a legacy cemented by Tsai Ing-wen's distinguished presidency. The mandate that parties nominate at least half their candidates as women has been a profound step towards gender equality. Taiwan already has the best female-to-male lawmaker ratio in Asia.
Interestingly, while the DPP has been able to secure a remarkable third presidential term, they have failed to secure a majority in the Legislative Yuan. Lai and Hsiao shall have to work hard to build a consensus with the opposition members in order to live up to their policy promises.
The Unfolding Future
Lai Ching-te's victory signals continuity in many respects but also presents a complex political landscape. The election results reflect a nation at a crossroads, facing internal pressures for economic and social reform, while externally navigating the choppy waters of the omnipresent China-Taiwan-US triangle.
In a world where Taiwan's strategic importance cannot be overstated, the choices made by its leaders and the policies they implement will reverberate far beyond its shores.
Lai's administration will inevitably shape the region's dynamics, influence the global economy, and redefine the parameters of Taiwan's engagement with both its colossal neighbour and the international community. Lai Ching-te’s election is poised to maintain, if not heighten, the tensions in Sino-American relations, with Taiwan continuing to serve as a geopolitical flashpoint.
The TPP's emergence, despite its loss, underscores a political awakening among Taiwan's youth, signaling a potential shift in future electoral dynamics. This generation's concerns and their disaffection with traditional politics may well define the political landscape in the years to come.
Lai's presidency will have to balance a multitude of factors: safeguarding Taiwan's de facto sovereignty, ensuring economic vitality, and managing delicate Cross-Strait politics, all while addressing the domestic yearnings for progress and change. In this balancing act, the stakes are high, not just for Taiwan but for the global community, as the island stands at the forefront of one of the most contentious and consequential geopolitical fault lines.
As Taiwan enters a new era when Lai Ching-te takes over in May, the international community will watch closely, recognising that the ripple effects of this small island democracy's decisions will be felt across oceans and continents. Taiwan's 2024 elections may have concluded, but the narrative of its future and its place in the world is just beginning to unfold.
[Chetan Rana is a doctoral candidate (Diplomacy and Disarmament) at Jawaharlal Nehru University and an Associate Editor at 9DASHLINE. This is an opinion piece and the views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for them.]
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