Trump's Midterm Rout: As Democrats Take Over Congress, India-US Diplomacy Can Expect New Players but a Familiar Game

No one in the Indian establishment has greater expertise on the United States or experience of India-US ties than External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar. He was in Atlanta a few days before the US midterm elections to take part in the G20 Foreign Ministers meeting. From there, he went to the Caribbean island country of Antigua and Barbuda to represent India at the Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting. Did he sense the Republican Party rout in the midterm election and advise Prime Minister Narendra Modi appropriately? Or did he watch with surprise the enormous change that took place in the US political landscape from the pleasant environs of Antigua and Barbuda?That there was a likelihood of the election going positively for the Democratic Party was anticipated, but only a perspicacious observer could have predicted a rout which, would greatly weaken US President Donald Trump.That, in turn, may impact India-US ties not only on the issues of trade, tariffs and immigration but beyond on US Congress’s approaches towards this country.US Midterm Elections: A Wounded Trump Could Become More Dangerous AbroadWhile Trump may be reined in on tariffs and visas—bringing relief to the Modi government, which has suffered at his erratic ways on these issues—it is the Congress’s attitudes that may cause discomfort, especially because now the Democrats decisively control both the chambers. From this perspective, the Blue political tsunami may not be what Delhi would have liked. Its preference would have been for a gentle rap on Trump’s knuckles. It is this distinction that required Jaishankar’s anticipation.Be that as it may, India would now have to deal with the transformation in US politics. The first bilateral item may well be the trade deal, which the US Secretary of State said is "almost complete", though the Indian side has not confirmed that point.In the US system, the Congress has wide oversight powers over the executive in the field of foreign policy including in the area of trade. Hence, some agreements and treaties need specific Congressional approval.Now, with the Congress passing into the control of the Democrats, the Trump administration will have to take extra care that the Indo-US trade deal is structured in a manner that does not require it to go to the Congress. Besides, it may have to focus on the demands made, behind the scenes, by some Democratic Party members on some specific areas of interest to them. All in all, though, it is doubtful if a Democrats-led Congress will look unkindly to a trade deal with India.It is really difficult to assess to what extent, if any, Trump will bend on immigration. This has been one area that he has strongly pushed all through. It has been his constant refrain that he has, unlike his predecessor Joe Biden, made the US safe from foreign criminals and undesirable elements. He has also taken action to be more restrictive on giving visas to foreigners to work in the US. This has included those who have H-1B visas which allows foreigners to work. Indian companies have greatly benefited from these visas. The visa policy comes largely within the purview of the executive. In his extraordinary reaction to the Republican defeat Vice President JD Vance has indicated that a greater understanding has to be shown for those industries that have relied on illegal immigrants. In a post on X he wrote “I’m open to the idea that we should change enforcement—by focusing more on businesses that hire illegal labor, for instance”. The question is if Trump would be willing to take such an approach? A concession here would undermine a basic pillar of his position that he has made the US safer. It is therefore difficult to see him move early in this direction, if at all. On H-1B visas, Indian diplomats and companies may be heard more closely but should not expect any dramatic change in Trump’s approach.'The Primary Reason is Iran War': JD Vance on Republican Midterm LossesThere has generally been, since the beginning of this century, a bi-partisan thrust in the US to improve its ties with India. Many sections of its political class have been irked at one or another area of Indian policies but, on the whole, these decades have witnessed a complete transformation in the bilateral relationship including in critical areas such as defense and security and technology. That general approach is not likely to change. However, what the Modi government will have to brace for is a more intrusive scrutiny of its policies on civil rights and freedoms. Naturally, these areas come within the domestic domain of any country. The scrutiny of any internal policies by a foreign executive or legislature is objectionable. However, the fact is that the US has never bothered about the tenet that a country should not comment on the internal developments of another. India had not been excluded from this general approach. Within its rubric, though, the Republicans have not been so concerned about an Indian government's policies on the fundamental rights including those of the minorities as the Democrats. Indeed, this aspect has been witnessed during Modi’s term as Prime Minister.While President Barack Obama had lectured the Modi government on civil rights during his visit to India in January 2015, Trump had not commented on the 2020 Delhi riots which had broken out even as he was in the Indian capital. The Trump administration on this issue is unlikely to undertake any major change even though he is sensitive on Christian issues. The US Congress, though, is unlikely to show any concern for the Sangh Parivar’s sensitivities. Hearings the conditions of the minorities and the situation of the Indian media and perhaps on electoral issues too should be expected.In 2019, Jaishankar had famously ignored the liberals in the US Congress to the extent that he did not go for a meeting on the Hill because it would be attended by a member of the House, Pramela Jayapal, who is a staunch Modi critic. Will he follow the same course now? Naturally, the Sangh Parivar would expect that he does but there will be a price to pay in terms of even greater scrutiny by committees of both chambers. Hence, the Modi government’s diplomatic skills will be tested and bland explanations will not do. Naturally, formal statements rejecting Congressional interference will and should be made whenever it takes place but it would be better to engage critics rather than only rail at them. (The writer is a former Secretary [West], Ministry of External Affairs. He can be reached @VivekKatju. This is an opinion piece, and the views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for the same.)

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