It seemed like one more attempt by the Indian government to reach out to its near adversary, China. Prime Minister Narendra Modi expressed the nation’s desire to normalise ties with Beijing in a three-hour-long podcast with Lex Fridman. The Chinese welcomed Modi’s friendly noises, but nothing much has happened ever since the two leaders – Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping – met last October and resolved to normalise ties. Even now Indian visas are not being issued—and flights too have not been restored between the two countries.
Worse, deep misgivings exist between India and China after Bangladesh decided to move away from India’s influence into a friendly embrace of Beijing last August.
This development upsets the military balance in the Siliguri Corridor region, also known as the 'Chicken Neck'. The 11-km-wide and 22-km-long corridor, which connects the rest of India with the northeastern states and its 5-crore people, comes under the arc of vulnerability accentuated by Chinese ambitions stoked by history and hostile geography.
A Balancing Act
India's strategy to manage this crisis depends on pursuing strategic autonomy with all its friends benefiting from its independent foreign policy.
The only way this can fail is when the perception grows that India is tilting too much in favour of a country, as US President Donald Trump is hoping for, through tariffs and other pressure tactics.
The big evidence of this shift was the manner in which Trump criticised BRICS in front of its founder member, India.
Similarly, India allowed criticism of its neighbour, Bangladesh, by Tulsi Gabbard, regarding persecution of minorities and how it was rooted in "Islamic ideology". The US State Department clarified the matter, but the imprimatur of those who do not want the situation to be normalised between India and Bangladesh was visible.
After the ouster of former Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina last August, the problems for India seemed to have accentuated, but the Indian government seems unfazed. It has reduced the number of medical visas issued to Bangladeshi citizens every month, creating deep anxiety in the neighbouring country.
The purpose of not granting medical visas to local Bangladeshis is perhaps meant to delegitimise Muhammad Yunus’ government and New Delhi’s attempt to shore up support for Hasina, who is living in exile in Delhi.
But the anger against the deposed leader for autocratic ways and corruption is far too much to go away soon.
China Extending a Friendly Hand to Yunus?
China has taken advantage of the spaces that New Delhi is creating due to its anger towards Yunus, whom many in the Indian establishment take to be an appointee of the Deep State manned by the likes of businessman George Soros.
It is learned that the Chinese government has set aside four hospitals in its Kunming province that is closest to Bangladesh so that they do not have to go to India. Yunus government is also asking Beijing to set up a hospital in Dhaka.
This is not all. There is plenty of action that is taking place between Dhaka and Beijing. Recently a 21-member Chinese delegation visited Bangladesh to build people-to-people contacts.
What is bewildering is why the Indian government is creating so much space for Bangladesh to draw distance with India.
While some conjecture may be drawn on this, ever since Hasina has been ousted, many military experts believe that the Chinese have begun to put the squeeze on India from all sides. This includes beefing up troop presence around all the areas along the 3,500 km long border between the neighbours.
Contrary to the view peddled by a section of the Indian government that the Chinese had withdrawn its troops from hostile positions, they continue to remain firmly entrenched.
“The Chinese army, which is the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), has a different view from that of the political leadership. And they still do not trust India,” claims a Chinese expert. His view, albeit unverified, is that even Xi Jinping does not trust India, as his past attempts to befriend Modi were not adequately reciprocated.
Be that as it may, there has been a spurt in mobilisation by the PLA around the 'Chicken Neck'. Military experts claim that the Chinese army has to come just 134 km to sever the 'Chicken Neck' from India, which will be a colossal military defeat.
While Bangladesh has drawn close to China, other neighbouring countries do not want to antagonise the Chinese either. Both Nepal and Bhutan, which surround the Neck, have been cutting deals with the Chinese for a while. Now that the Pakistanis are close to Beijing and Dhaka, it could be a tough phase for India.
Trump Effect on India-China Security
No army commander wants to face such a diffciult situation when you are friendless. In 2017, during Trump's first term in office, India and China had a testy standoff. India had then managed to stave off that confrontation. It had to use guile and miliary prowess to ensure that China does not flaunt it ample military strength against New Delhi.
Prime Minister Modi’s preparation to tackle China is two-fold:
First, be ambivalent with the US about its membership to multilateral bodies where China is also a member, like BRICS and Shanghai Cooperation (SCO)
Second, to use its friendship with Russia to mollify Beijing and convey to them that they are committed to BRICS' values like the idea of trading in national currencies rather than in dollars
BRICS is working on creating a reserve currency to take the sheen off the dollar, a move deeply resented by Trump who is desperate to make America great again.
China is also trying to ensure that India does not benefit from the strategy of wooing large corporations by sending investments to countries other than India. This 'China Plus' strategy includes Indonesia, Vietnam, and Mexico.
There is no India in that. To reiterate, the Chinese do not want to build India’s manufacturing prowess due to Foreign Direct Investment that may go from their country. They watched with some consternation about the way the Apple factory in India handled nearly 15 percent of the smart phone maker’s production, with plans of amping it up to 25 percent.
They also fear that once this prowess is built, they would not like Chinese phones to be built in India. Expectedly, the Chinese had stopped supplying big machines and their trained manpower to Foxconn’s Apple manufacturing facility in India.
The Chinese communist party paper, The Global Times, is talking of Indian business investing in intermediate goods so that India could build on that and become a manufacturing giant. A lot can happen if the two countries trust each other and stop bothering about how the US will react to the evolving situation in Asia and beyond.
(Sanjay Kapoor is a veteran journalist and founder of Hardnews Magazine. He is a foreign policy specialist focused on India and its neighbours, and West Asia. This is an opinion piece. All views expressed are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for them.)