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Budget 2019: Oil Prices to Modi’s Rescue Again?

Lady luck keeps smiling on Modi, and crude oil prices come to the rescue again, writes Amitabh Tiwari. 

Updated: 
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The first woman Finance Minister of India Ms Nirmala Sitharaman presented her maiden budget in Modi 2.0 regime on 5 July. Amid challenges of slowing growth, tepid investment, decelerating consumption and weak global cues, the finance minister had her task cut out. Growth needed an injection while fiscal discipline had to be maintained. What compounded matters for Sitharaman was the fact that revenue collections (GST/Income tax) fell short of even the revised estimates in the interim budget presented this February 2019.

As per an analysis by Vivek Kaul for Mint, central good and services tax (GST) fell short of the original target by 24 percent. Income tax collections which were projected to be Rs 5.29 lakh crore, finally ended up at a much lower Rs 4.67 lakh crore. The Union excise duty collections were also slightly lower than originally hoped for. The fiscal deficit target for 2018-19 was essentially managed through lower subsidy compensation to FCI (Rs 1.02 lakh crore versus Rs 1.71 lakh crore provided for) and Oil Marketing Companies as we follow cash basis of accounting for the annual budget.

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