On 24 March, the United States abstained on a United Nations Security Council resolution that had called for a cease-fire in the Gaza Strip.
This was the first time that the US had refrained from voting on a UNSC resolution since the onset of the conflict following the Hamas attack on Israel on 7 October of last year. Following the American abstention, in obviously what was a pique on his part, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu cancelled the visit of a high-level Israeli delegation to Washington, DC.
Subsequently, Prime Minister Netanyahu and President Biden have had a tense conversation about the Israeli conduct of military operations in Gaza following the deaths of seven World Central Kitchen aid workers as a consequence of an Israeli military strike.
In its aftermath, Israel agreed to ease some restrictions on the delivery of aid and also promised to investigate the obvious lapse that led to the killings of the aid workers.
Do these developments signal a shift in American policy toward the Netanyahu government or are they mostly cosmetic gestures designed to appease growing unease within segments of the Democratic Party? After all, when a reporter asked Biden if the United States was considering cutting off military aid to Israel, Biden resorted to a harsh retort.
And, even as he has exerted some pressure on Israel to protect civilians and aid workers, his administration is still considering an arms package to the tune of $18 billion including the provision of F-15 fighter jets.
This possible new and substantial tranche of military assistance to Israel comes at a time when even previously staunch supporters of Israel, such as the former Speaker of the United States House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi, have called for withholding arms transfers to Israel until it investigates how the aid workers were killed and it takes discernible steps to protect civilians while continuing its military operations in Gaza.
It is more than likely the Biden administration’s willingness to exert some pressure on the Netanyahu government does not reflect a fundamental reappraisal of American policy toward Israel and its conduct of the war in Gaza. However, it probably stems from the rising chorus of voices especially from within the more left-leaning elements of the Democratic Party not to grant the Netanyahu government carte blanche when carrying out military actions in Gaza.
The lack of a dramatic policy change is unlikely for a number of compelling reasons. To begin with, there has long been a widespread consensus in American politics that support for Israel is a key element of America’s Middle East policy. Two prominent American foreign policy and international relations scholars, John Mearsheimer and Stephen Walt, who some years ago, questioned the wisdom of this policy, faced scathing criticisms for their views including charges of anti-Semitism.
Even today, few scholars and activists are inclined to openly share the view that Mearsheimer and Walt espoused in their book. The argument that the two scholars made about the existence of an organised Israel lobby can be set aside for the moment.
Even open criticism of Israel’s current policies in Congress has been mostly muted. Of those in the US House of Representatives, three voices have been quite prominent: they are a Black Representative, Cory Bush of Missouri, an Indian-American Congresswoman, Pramila Jayapal, and the only Palestinian-American, Rashida Tlaib.
Also, the overtly social democratic Senator, Bernie Sanders of Vermont, who is Jewish, has also been critical of Israel’s conduct in the war against Hamas. Beyond these voices, a small number of other Senators and various members have offered limited and calibrated criticisms.
Senator Chuck Schumer, the Senate Majority Leader, who is also Jewish, in a remarkable departure from his past stance on Israel’s policies, publicly suggested that Israel vote for a new government. Furthermore, a long-time supporter of Israel, Senator Chris Coons of Delaware, a member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, has recently called for conditioning aid to Israel.
Despite this variety of dissenting voices, it is unlikely that a sharp shift of policy toward Israel is in the offing. To begin with, this is a presidential election year and it is unlikely that President Biden, who is in a very tight electoral contest, will take any precipitate decisions on this politically fraught question. Furthermore, Prime Minister Netanyahu has his own reasons for prolonging the war. An end to the war could lead to a reopening of various legal charges against him that are currently pending.
Furthermore, as an astute observer of American politics, he knows that he can still count on support from a wide swath of the American political spectrum as long as he can keep highlighting the utterly heinous features of the Hamas attack on Israel of last October. This is evident from his recent remark where he called on continuing American military assistance to enable him to “finish the job”.
Given this conjunction of political circumstances and the policy preferences of key players in the United States and Israel, a dramatic departure from current policies does not seem to be looming on the horizon.
(Sumit Ganguly holds the Tagore Chair in Indian Cultures and Civilizations at Indiana University, Bloomington and is a Visiting Fellow at the Hoover Institution at Stanford University. This is an opinion piece and the views expressed are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for them.)
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