Every political party is breathlessly striking alliances for the 2019 polls. While it’s understandable why the Congress – which is plotting its rise from the abysmal lows of 44 seats in 2014 – would be showing alacrity, even the BJP – riding on its record high of 282 and bragging about having done more in 60 months compared to 60 years of Congress rule – is retreating, pumping flesh, swallowing pride, and cutting deals with detractors. Why is this happening? The answer lies in this electoral gem:
Since 1989, the Congress and BJP have always had a higher strike rate, ie won more seats as a fraction of those contested, whenever they have fought fewer seats. Even in the Modi hurricane of 2014, the BJP fought on lesser seats than in 2009. The exception was for the Congress in 2009 – when it fought and won a higher number of Lok Sabha seats – but that perhaps just proved the rule. Put another way, whenever the Congress or BJP have left a higher number of seats for allies – ie, accommodated more parties in a pre-poll alliance – they have won more, not less, seats!