No Winner Yet, but Biden More Likely to Eventually Win US Election

Biden currently leads Trump by 49.8 percent to 48.5 percent in the national popular vote.

US president Donald Trump and Joe Biden
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Owing to the large numbers of mail ballots, counting in some states has been very slow. What we know is that Donald Trump won Florida, Texas, Ohio and Iowa. With the exception of Florida, these states were regarded as only winnable for Biden, if he won by a landslide.

Trump is narrowly ahead with almost all votes counted in North Carolina. In Georgia, the New York Times needle gives Biden a slender 0.5 percent lead, largely because the remaining votes are from metropolitan Atlanta.

Trump’s win in Florida, where he leads by 3.4 percent with 96 percent in, was caused by a massive swing to Trump in Miami-Dade county. Biden only won Miami-Dade by 7 percent, compared to Hillary Clinton’s almost 30 percent margin in 2016. This county has many Cuban Americans, who far preferred Trump the second time. Trump also greatly over-performed with Hispanics in Texas.

Biden held the narrowly Clinton states of New Hampshire and Minnesota. The AP and Fox News have called Arizona for Biden. He won Nebraska’s second Congressional District. Biden is likely to hold Nevada and Maine.

While Trump currently has leads in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, early votes by mail are likely to heavily favour Biden when they are counted in the bigger population centres.

If Biden wins two of these three, he would win the Electoral College by a minimum of 270-268 with Arizona, Nevada and Nebraska’s second.

Biden currently leads Trump by 49.8 percent to 48.5 percent in the national popular vote. However, Democratic strongholds such as California take four weeks after election day to count all their votes. Biden’s popular vote lead is certain to grow in the coming weeks.

For the most part, the polls understated Trump’s performance, particularly in Florida, Ohio and Iowa. The final Selzer Iowa poll was the big exception, giving Trump a seven-point lead.

A clue to the closeness of the result was a three-point jump in Trump’s net approval, with likely or registered voters in a week, to -6.9 percent. It was likely that Trump would do better with higher personal ratings.

In the Senate, Republicans lead Democrats by 47 to 46 with seven races uncalled. One Senate race in Georgia will go to a run-off, and the other one could, too, if Republican David Perdue fails to clear 50 percent. Democrats are likely to win the Arizona Senate, but Republicans Susan Collins and Thom Tillis are likely to hold Maine and North Carolina, respectively.

Pending the one and possibly two runoffs in Georgia, Democrats are likely to gain just one net Senate seat. If Republicans hold both Georgian seats, they would retain a 52-48 Senate majority – a disappointing result for Democrats, who had been given a 75 percent chance to win the Senate by FiveThirtyEight.

In the House, Democrats have so far lost a net three seats, but would retain a majority with 232 of the 435 seats, down from 235.

(This is an opinion piece and the views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for the same. This article was originally published on The Conversation. Read the original article here.)

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