Explained: Will Indian Talent Pick Canada Over US to Avoid Paying H-1B Visa Fee?

The spillover effects of US President Donald Trump's shock announcement of a $100,000 fee for immigrants applying for H-1B visas are still playing out two weeks after the rule was changed. The overhauling of the H-1B programme has put the pursuit for the 'American Dream' on hold for Indian students and workers. The close to Rs 89 lakh fee which companies will have to provide US coffers to have a foreign candidate work for them will mean that far fewer candidates will be considered for positions. Sensing an economic opportunity, however, a number of world leaders have put their hat in the ring, lifting their proverbial paddles for Indian talent at the foreign workers' auction.Days after Trump's announcement, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said that his administration was mulling a plan to absorb foreign workers into Canada, particularly from the tech sector, who will now be pulling out of the H-1B race.What is the rationale behind Carney's remarks and how will his plan play out? The Quint explains.'Took Rs 50L Loan to Study in US, Trump’s H-1B Visa Fee Could Leave Me in Debt'Speaking at an event in London on 27 September, the banker-turned-politician said his government is working on a proposal to get foreign workers who were initially considering moving to the US to now come to Canada instead. “Not as many H-1B visa holders will get visas in the US. These people are skilled, and this is an opportunity for Canada… We will soon bring a proposal on this," the prime minister said, adding, "It’s an opportunity for Canada, and we are going to take that into account, and we are going to have a clear offering on that." His statements are being seen as a great boon to Indians with aspirations to study and work abroad. According to data released by the US government, there has been a close to 50 percent drop in the number of Indian students arriving in the US in July and August this year compared to 2024 data. Some estimates suggest that with the latest announcement by Trump on H-1B rules, there could be a potential 70 percent drop in Indian students enrolling in universities across the US during the 2025 Fall semester.Beyond $100,000, Trump's New H-1B Rules Come at Much Bigger Cost for IndiansHence, there are several undecided candidates up for grabs. "Immigrants in the US are coming to the unfortunate realisation that they are disposable," says Sudhanshu Kaushik, Executive Director of the North American Association of Indian Students (NAAIS).Kaushik, who is currently a doctoral student at John Hopkins University, says that more than the policy implications of the new rules, there is a sense of fear which has become ingrained among Indians and other immigrants."The system wasn't perfect earlier either. But now a fear has set in. We don't know what comes next. So we have to be cautious, which includes reconsidering whether to take loans and thinking about whether it's really worth it to move all the way across the world," he told The Quint.While Carney's proposal referred to foreign workers instead of students, the statement is sure to impact the decision of several Indian students about where they want to go for further studies. Simply put, if they wish to get a job in Canada and take advantage of the government's new proposal, then applying at a Canadian university instead of one in the US will be the best path forward.Before understanding whether Carney's proposal can practically translate into action, let us first analyse the rationale behind his remarks. According to the ICEF Monitor, a platform designed to facilitate international student recruitments, Canada has seen the largest drop in the enrollment of foreign students in recent years among the top four study destinations (US, UK, Canada, and Australia). Data indicates that the enrolment of Indian students, which make up the largest cohort of immigrant students in Canada, fell by a drastic 41 percent in 2024 as compared to 2023. This coincided with the Canadian government's announcement of national caps on student permits from 2024 onwards to put checks on net migration.It also coincided with enduring bitterness in ties between New Delhi and Ottawa following the then Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's allegation of the Indian government's involvement in the assassination of Khalistani extremist Hardeep Singh Nijjar in Surrey in 2023. However, there is no data to show whether the low point in ties weighed heavily in the minds of Indian students who chose not to enroll in Canadian universities.Whatever the case may be, the Canadian government lost out on massive revenues between 2023 and 2024 due to the fall in the enrollment of Indian students. According to the education consultancy firm Stubard and KC Overseas Education, an immigrant student in Canada typically spends 30,000-50,000 Canadian dollars per year, including on tuition and living expenses. If we consider the median value (40,000 Canadian dollars), this means the Canadian government lost out on 3.8 billion Canadian dollars in 2024 (calculated on the basis of official data indicating that 95,900 less Indian students enrolled in Canadian universities in 2024 as compared to 2023). And this is just for Indian students. If we add the losses incurred due to fewer enrollment of students from other international communities, the figure will be much higher.Furthermore, data released by Statistics Canada showed that the country's unemployment rate reached its highest point of 7.1 percent since 2016 (excluding the pandemic years of 2020 and 2021) after the economy shed 66,000 jobs in August 2025 amid looming risks of US tariffs.This, coupled with rising costs of groceries, fuel, a weakening Canadian dollar, and stagnant incomes, has put the government in a spot. The only way out is a rise in government spending—which can partly be facilitated by revenues arising out of higher student enrollments.Trump’s Sudden H-1B Move Was a Recipe for Chaos. Clarity Came Far Too LateThere are two facets to this argument. The first question to consider is, does the prospect of studying in Canada outweigh the possibility of studying and potentially securing a job in the US, notwithstanding the visa risks? Despite the ups and downs of its visa rules, the US has for years been the world's most favourable study destination for international students due to the quality of education and universities, employment opportunities, and salaries offered. "I think the reason immigrant students and workers prefer the US is because of its boundless economic opportunities," says Sudhanshu Kaushik."I don't think the level of education and work in Canada can compare to that in the US. That's why people come here, even if it means paying 4-5 times more for a US education as they believe it will give them greater returns in the future."Sudhanshu KaushikLet's take the tech industry, for instance. According to a study conducted by The Dais Public Policy Institute at Toronto Metropolitan University, a US tech worker earns 46 percent more on average compared to a Canadian tech worker. While a Canadian tech employee might make $83,700 a year, his/her US counterpart earns $122,600 annually. This disparity has to do with a number of factors: differences in costs of living, tax structures, and other broad economic factors.What Canada does offer better than the US is an array of social benefits: from universal healthcare and generous Employment Insurance (EI) to flexible parental leave. The US, in contrast, relies mostly on private insurance for healthcare. Hence, it all depends on what a foreign worker is looking for in a job: robust social security or career ambition coupled with high rewards. "Is there economic capability in Canada to support the level of jobs, quality of jobs, and pay of the jobs that the US has? You can absorb people, but can you give them the same quality of life or payment they're receiving? At the end of the day, there's a different type of immigrant that comes to Canada and a different type that comes to the US," Kaushik says. The second question to consider is, can Canada even absorb that much foreign talent?The obvious economic benefits of greater foreign student enrollments aside, the Canadian government has to take several factors into account before it rolls out any such proposal.Anti-immigrant sentiments have been on the rise in a number of western countries of late. The UK and Australia witnessed unprecedented far-right rallies recently attended by tens of thousands of people. Indian Australians Were Already at Crossroads. Then Came Anti-Immigrant RalliesThe situation in Canada isn't much different. A recent survey conducted by the Association for Canadian Studies stated that 60 percent of the people they interviewed said that the country did not need more immigrants. Also, 51 percent of respondents said that immigrants should give up their customs and traditions and adopt those of the "majority".Also, a far-right 'Canada First Patriot Rally' was held in Toronto on 13 September to protest against the high level of immigration. However, it was attended by far fewer people as compared to the recent rallies in the UK and Australia.Furthermore, Canada has been facing a deepening housing crisis. House prices and rents have skyrocketed in recent years without a concomitant and equal increase in incomes, leading to less affordability. The Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) estimated that 3.5 million additional homes are needed by 2030 to restore affordability.Often times, immigrants have been blamed for the housing crisis, with several incidents being reported of foreign students and workers being verbally or physically assaulted. The Quint has reported on such incidents extensively over the years.Hence, while the prospect of inviting more foreign workers into Canada might seem lucrative on the face of it, doing so is sure to complicate the country's already burdened immigration system further and could fuel greater discontent among locals."The public opinion in Canada has recently become increasingly anti-immigration," Canada-based political scientist Reeta Tremblay told The Quint. "Foreign temporary workers have become a major point of contention in both public and political debates." Tremblay says that given this political environment, there isn't much appetite on the part of the Carney government to increase the number of immigrants. In fact, he has said in the past that his government plans to return immigration rates to "sustainable" levels. "We might get an indication of the government 's so-called 'sustainable' and 'focused' approach to immigration on 1 November when it plans to table its immigration policy. Meanwhile, the policy is largely status quo," she added.Notwithstanding the pros and cons of Carney's upcoming proposal, the one fact that has come to the fore most prominently is that the government is pulling out all stops to mend ties with India. Extending an invitation to Indian tech workers is just the latest testament to this. In recent weeks, the Canadian government, heeding the concerns of New Delhi, arrested three pro-Khalistan actors, including a close aide of Sikhs for Justice (SFJ) chief Gurpatwant Singh Pannun, on arms-related charges on 19 September. This came after the Canadian government acknowledged for the first time that certain pro-Khalistan groups have been receiving financial support from within Canada to carry out acts of 'politically motivated violent extremism'. In doing so, the government labelled the Babbar Khalsa International (BKI) and the International Sikh Youth Federation (ISYF) as "terrorist organisations" which raise funds from Canadian soil."The Carney government is adopting a different approach as compared to Trudeau," political scientist Tremblay said while speaking to The Quint."Instead of treating the Sikh diaspora as a homogenous group, it is differentiating between those who, on the one hand, are involved in violent extremists’ activities and use Canada as a base for fund-raising or planning secessionist activities, and the others who participate in peaceful protests regarding the Khalistan cause."Ottawa also formally declared the notorious Lawrence Bishnoi gang as a "terrorist organisation", authorising law enforcement to freeze their assets and prosecute members under anti-terror laws. The gang has been charged in India with a number of offences, including the murder of Punjabi singer Sidhu Moose Wala and former politician Baba Siddique, and threatening to kill actor Salman Khan.Also, Canada's Foreign Minister Anita Anand is expected to visit India in the middle of October in a bid to "rebuild" ties. In an interview with a Canadian channel on 28 September, Anand had said that she would discuss next steps in the diplomatic relationship during her visit to New Delhi.When Carney had been made the prime minister of Canada in April this year, The Quint had done an analysis predicting that ties between India and Canada are bound to sharply improve under his leadership.Among the many arguments provided to support this assertion was the "coalition matrix". Unlike Trudeau, the Carney government with its 169 seats in the 343-member House hasn't been dependent on outside support.The first indication of softening ties was felt in August this year after India and Canada appointed high commissioners and other top diplomats to each others' countries after a gap of 10 months. This came after the same had been agreed on between Carney and Prime Minister Narendra Modi during their first official meeting on the sidelines of the G7 Summit in June in Italy. Explained: Canada's Terror Tag on 2 Khalistani Outfits—and India Relations

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Explained: Will Indian Techies Shift to Canada After $100K H-1B Visa Fee Hike?

PM Mark Carney recently said Canada was mulling a plan to absorb talent who'll now be pulling out of the H-1B race.