A viral graphic, purportedly shared by Hindi news organisation News24, listing predictions – made by satta bazaars (betting markets) – on who might win the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, has gone viral on social media.
The graphic predicts a close contest between the NDA and the INDI Alliance across all markets.
(Archives of more claims on social media can be seen here, here, and here.)
Is it real?: No, News24 has not published this graphic.
Additionally, the betting market in Rajasthan's Phalodi, which is said to be the closest predictor to the mood of the voters, has projected a comfortable win for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).
How did we find out the truth?: We noticed that the logo in the viral graphic read 'News 2024' as opposed to 'News24'.
This indicated that the graphic may not be shared by News24.
Next, we went through News24's social media accounts to see whether they had shared this graphic about betting market predictions, but did not find it anywhere.
However, we came across an X post by News24's anchor and executive editor Manak Gupta, who called it "fake" and said that their channel had not "done a story of this kind."
What have satta bazaars predicted?: We looked for news reports related to betting markets, and came across several reports which mentioned a comfortable win for the BJP.
The BJP would win a clear majority, according to the Phalodi betting market, reported Mint.
The Financial Express reported that the INDIA bloc was expected to gain ground in Uttar Pradesh, but the BJP would win by a majority, as per the Phalodi bazaar.
(Note: Swipe to view both reports.)
The betting market in Phalodi predicts a majority for the BJP.
(Source: Mint/Screenshot)
Conclusion: The viral graphic listing predictions by betting markets was not shared by News24.
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