A video showing opinion polls conducted by ABP News for the upcoming Madhya Pradesh Assembly elections is going viral on social media.
What's the claim?: The claim states that according to the survey, out of 230 assembly seats, Congress will win the elections with 150-158 seats in the state, whereas the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) will only secure 66-75 seats.
Assembly elections for the state are scheduled to be held in or before November 2023.
An archive can be seen here.
(Source: Facebook/Screenshot)
(Archives of similar claims can be seen here and here.)
What's the truth?: The truth is that this viral video is altered.
The survey results in the original video does not match with the figures shown in the viral video.
The original video shows Congress' win but not with the a very high margin as claimed.
The numbers have been morphed in the viral video for the Bhopal, Baghelkhand, Chambal, Mahakoshal, Malwa and Nimar regions in the state.
How did we find out the truth?: We performed a relevant keyword search and came across an article shared by ABP News on 27 June 2023.
The report stated details about ABP-C voter Survey which was the first opinion poll for the Madhya Pradesh election 2023.
It specified a very close contest for Congress and BJP where Congress wins 108-120 seats whereas BJP secures 106-118 seats.
We also found their bulletin on their YouTube channel for the same opinion poll.
This was the same video as the viral clip but the numbers didn't match.
To point out the discrepancies, we compared each region and the final results from both the videos.
We also noticed that a table containing altered numbers was added near every region's template to replace the anchor.
The viral video is altered.
(Source: Altered by The Quint)
Chambal region: The numbers for 34 seats was altered to 4-6 from 7-11 for BJP and 28-30 from 22-26 for Congress.
Comparison between the viral video and the original video for Chambal region.
(Source: Altered by The Quint)
Mahakoshal region: The numbers for 42 seats was altered to 13-16 from 20-24 for BJP and 26-29 from 18-22 for Congress.
Comparison between the viral video and the original video for Mahakoshal region.
(Source: Altered by The Quint)
Baghelkhand region: The numbers for 56 seats was altered to 11-15 from 21-25 for BJP and 40-42 from 30-34 for Congress.
Comparison between the viral video and the original video for Baghelkhand region.
(Source: Altered by The Quint)
Bhopal region: The numbers for 25 seats was altered to 9-12 from 18-22 for BJP and 13-16 from 3-7 for Congress.
Comparison between the viral video and the original video for Bhopal region.
(Source: Altered by The Quint)
Nimar region: The numbers for 28 seats was altered to 11 from 11-15 for BJP and 16 from 11-15 for Congress.
Comparison between the viral video and the original video for Nimar region.
(Source: Altered by The Quint)
Malwa region: The numbers for 45 seats was altered to 15-18 from 23-27 for BJP and 27-30 from 18-22 for Congress.
Comparison between the viral video and the original video for Malwa region.
(Source: Altered by The Quint)
Clarification from ABP News: We also came across a post shared by ABP News journalist Brajesh Rajput on X (formerly Twitter) who clarified that this viral video is altered.
The tweet can be viewed here.
(Source: X/Screenshot)
Conclusion: Clearly, an altered video of ABP News' opinion polls of Madhya Pradesh Assembly elections is going viral to claim that Congress will win the elections with a very high margin.
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