The stakes are high in Kerala’s 16th assembly election, with voter turnout reaching 78.03 percent, the highest since 1987, and the state having over 2.7 crore registered voters following the Special Intensive Revision (SIR) led by the Election Commission of India (ECI).
According to the latest C-Voter Survey, the United Democratic Front (UDF) is expected to get 40 percent of the vote share, while the Left Democratic Front (LDF) is at 36 percent.
The latest Manorama C-Voter exit polls predict a victory for the UDF, winning 82 to 94 seats, while the LDF is expected to gain 44 to 56 seats and the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) just 1 to 3 seats
Kerala has seen political power shifting between two alliances every five years until the last term.
The LDF made history in 2021 by winning the assembly elections consecutively, a feat not achieved in over four decades. While the win was historic, the chance of bagging a third term hasn’t looked favourable since the recent local body polls in December 2025, when UDF won the majority of the seats.
The results of the 2025 local body elections showed regional differences in support, along with a noticeable shift in party dominance across the state, with the Congress-led opposition outperforming the ruling Communist Party of India (Marxist)-led LDF and the NDA expanding its grounds.
LDF secured 33.45 percent of the vote share, winning only one of the six corporations, while UDF secured 38.81 percent and won four of the six corporations. NDA saw considerable growth, 14.71 percent vote share and winning one corporation, Thiruvananthapuram, which was LDF's stronghold.
LDF saw a decline in four constituencies it had won in the 2020 local body polls. The party had seen a clear majority in Kollam and Thiruvananthapuram corporations. In the 2020 local body polls, in the Kochi corporation, the LDF won 34 seats, including five Left-backed Independent candidates, while the UDF gained 31 seats, including one Congress-backed Independent candidate. In Thrissur corporation, LDF came to power with the support of independents and by making UDF rebel candidate M.K. Varghese the new mayor.
The charts compare poll results for the four constituencies across the two elections.
The LDF saw a drop in support in several municipalities within constituencies it had won in the 2021 Assembly Election, such as Pattambi, Ettumanoor, Thaliparambu, Kayamkulam, and Chengannur.
While local candidates influence votes in local body polls, they can also reveal shifting support across Kerala.
Key Battlegrounds
It is worth looking at some of the constituencies that have emerged as important in this election before the results are declared on 4 May.
THRISSUR
Thrissur is an important constituency to look out for as the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) made a breakthrough in the last Lok Sabha election. Suresh Gopi emerged as the winner in 2024, marking a significant achievement for the alliance.
Currently, the constituency is seeing a three-way fight between Communist Party of India (CPI) candidate Alankode Leelakrishnan, Congress candidate Rajan J Pallan, and Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) candidate Padmaja Venugopal.
In the 2021 elections, P Balachandran won the seat, defeating Congress candidate Padmaja Venugopal. With Padmaja representing the BJP after she left the Congress in 2024, the seat is hotly contested.
ARANMULA
Aranmula has seen both the Communist Party of India (Marxist), or CPI(M) and the Congress in power in the constituency over the years.
Now, sitting MLA Veena George from LDF has entered the fray, in a face-off against BJP's Kummanam Rajasekharan, and Congress' Abin Varkey. Veena George has won the last two elections, and LDF is banking on her popularity to secure the seat.
DHARMADAM
Dharmadam is the home ground of the incumbent chief minister, Pinarayi Vijayan. This fight, which has CM Vijayan standing against the Congress candidate Abdul Rasheed, and the BJP's K Ranjith, is shaping up to be interesting, with the post-poll surveys predicting an edge for the LDF and CM Vijayan.
PALAKKAD
Another important constituency to watch out for is Palakkad. The constituency has LDF candidate NMR Razak, Congress candidate Ramesh Pisharody and BJP candidate Shobha Surendran standing against each other.
The constituency has seen the Congress win the last two elections, and this time, with the Congress fielding a renowned actor against the popular BJP candidate, Shobha Surendran, the contest will be one to watch.
The Temperamental Nature of Thiruvananthapuram
Thiruvananthapuram has recently emerged as an important swing seat, with the NDA's recent gains in what was once the LDF's stronghold. The constituency, which gave the LDF an easy win in the 2020 local body polls and backed it in the 2021 elections, saw a dramatic shift in the 2025 local body polls, with the NDA taking the baton.
NDA won the Thiruvananthapuram corporation with 50 out of 101 wards, making a breakthrough in a region that the LDF had dominated for nearly 45 years. The results not only point to the growing anti-incumbency sentiments but also towards the BJP expanding its foothold in the state.
The graph shows the vote share each party received in the 2020 and 2025 local body polls.
With the recent gains, NDA will now be looking at turning the win into assembly seats, which it has not traditionally managed to achieve. This makes several constituencies within Thiruvananthapuram important to watch.
Nemom
Nemom, the constituency which saw the BJP making a breakthrough in 2016 when it won its first assembly seat in Kerala, is awaiting an intense competition. With V Sivankutty, the current minister of general education and labour from CPM, facing Rajeev Chandrashekhar, president of BJP's Kerala wing, the competition will be closely watched.
Vattiyoorkavu
Vattiyoorkavu will face a triangular contest with advocate VK Prashant from the CPI, K Muraleedharan, a two-time MLA from the Congress, and R Sreelekha from the BJP, all against each other.
Kazhakoottam
Kazhakoottam is one of the most important constituencies within the district where Kadakampally Surendran from CPM, Sarathchandra Prasad from Congress, and BJP candidate V Muraladheeran are competing with each other.
How Does Religion Swing the Vote?
Kerala’s religious diversity is also reflected in how communities vote. According to a post-poll survey conducted by the Centre for Public Policy Research (CPPR) after the 2021 general assembly elections, 49 percent of the Christian population backed UDF, while 41.23 percent chose the LDF as their preferred party, a noticeable shift away from their traditional pro-Congress leanings.
In Kottayam, where Christians make up 43.48 percent of the population, the LDF won a majority of seats in the 2021 elections. However, in the recent local body polls, UDF made a comeback,winning five of the district's six municipalities.
Part of LDF's success comes from its positioning as a protector of minorities and a force to challenge the right-wing forces during the 2021 assembly elections. According to a report by the CPPR, the discontent among Christian voters over the prominence UDF gave to IUML also benefited the LDF.
Malappuram, where Muslims make up 70.24 percent of the population, has remained consistent in the last elections. The CPPR survey found that 64.74 percent of the Muslim population voted for the UDF, which includes the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) as well. The district showed a clear UDF majority in both the 2021 assembly and 2025 local body polls.
Yet LDF performed strongly in Muslim-populated areas across the state. In the assembly elections, in the 66 constituencies where Muslim votes are important, the LDF won over 40 seats. Welfare measures such as free COVID-19 treatment and pensions were cited by 53 percent of Muslim respondents as factors that can impact the polls.
“The LDF won across the state in the 2021 assembly elections. This wasn’t about the Christian vote or the Muslim vote. It was about how UDF had mismanaged,” said Yashwant Deshmukh, the director and founding editor of CVoter, to The Quint.Yashwant Deshmukh, Director and Founding Editor of CVoter
While the 2021 elections saw the UDF unable to bank on its traditional voter base, the 2026 assembly elections will test whether it can regain that support.
Underdogs of the Game
Twenty20, which entered the Kerala political landscape through the 2015 local body elections, has emerged as a party that could potentially unseat the LDF. However, it has shown little growth in the past few years.
In the 2020 civic body polls, the party not only retained Kizhakkambalam but also expanded its ground. However, the party has not been able to repeat the victory it showed in the local body polls.
The party joined the NDA alliance by 2026, a move that could potentially change the political dynamics for this election in subtle ways. However, whether this will result in a change in vote share is yet to be seen.
There are numerous factions of the Kerala Congress, such as Kerala Congress (Mani), Kerala Congress (B), Kerala Congress (Jacob), and Kerala Congress (Anti-merger Group), which either exist independently or join larger alliances. These parties, often fielding candidates in limited seats, have won seats by deciding which candidates to bank on.
While the votes have been cast and the polls have closed, the counting has yet to begin, and with anti-incumbency sentiment and popular candidates in place, the results are shaping up to be worth watching closely.