Ram Mandir Consecration: Why it's a Huge Moment for Yogi Adityanath

Other than PM Modi, Yogi Adityanath was the only other active politician present during the ceremony.

The entire focus during the Ram Mandir consecration ceremony in Ayodhya was, no doubt, on Prime Minister Narendra Modi. However, there's another politician who got a great deal of prominence - Uttar Pradesh chief minister Yogi Adityanath.

Besides the priests, there were just four people at the sanctum sanctorum when the main rituals for the consecration of the Ram Lalla idol were being conducted. These were RSS Sarsanghchalak Mohan Bhagwat, PM Narendra Modi, Uttar Pradesh governor Anandiben Patel and UP CM Yogi Adityanath.

Among these four, only two are in active politics - PM Modi and CM Yogi Adityanath.

• So, what does this ceremony mean for Yogi Adityanath?

• What lies ahead for him?

We'll try and answer these questions in this piece.

What does the Ram Mandir ceremony mean for Yogi Adityanath's political fortunes?

Being the CM of UP, the state where Ayodhya is located, Yogi Adityanath is central to the BJP's plans in the temple city. Even though the temple construction itself is being managed by the central government-created trust, the development of Ayodhya city largely comes under Adityanath.

As a result, the credit for changes in Ayodhya would go to Adityanath and his government. Of course, this would also mean a fair share of brickbats, as could be seen in this ground report by The Quint on how the land acquisition was done.

Even the day after the consecration, CM Adityanath held a meeting regarding the security arrangements and crowd management at the temple.

With Ayodhya likely to attract a large number of devotees from across India now that the temple has been inaugurated, it is likely to boost Adityanath's national profile even further.

As it is Adityanath has a greater national presence than any other BJP CM, both because of his hardline Hindutva image as well as the fact that he rules India's most populous state.

He has also emerged as one of the BJP's main campaigners in any election.

What lies ahead for him?

A great deal will depend on how the BJP performs in the Lok Sabha elections in the 80 seats in Uttar Pradesh.

Two factors are going in the party's favour:

First, the Ram Mandir fervour. The BJP has left no stone unturned to create a buzz around the Ram Mandir in every district in the state. It remains to be seen whether this momentum lasts until the Lok Sabha elections due in April-May this year.

Second, the SP-BSP-RLD Mahagathbandhan has broken up. The alliance had secured 39 percent of the votes and 15 out of 80 seats between them. BSP chief Mayawati has announced that her party will be contesting on its own. It had secured 19 percent votes in 2019. The SP and RLD have recently sealed their seat-sharing arrangement. The Congress, which got six percent votes in 2019, could join the alliance but it won't be enough to offset the losses caused by the BSP's exit.

As a result of these two factors, the BJP and its ally Apna Dal may be well placed to repeat their 2019 performance of 64 out of 80 seats and maybe even improve upon it.

Anything above 64 Lok Sabha seats would be a personal win for Yogi Adityanath.

However, election outcomes aren't always predictable.

For instance, the 1993 Assembly elections in Uttar Pradesh took place in the aftermath of the demolition of the Babri Masjid in December 1992. Despite this, the BJP's tally came down by 44 seats and vote share fell by about 1 percentage point compared to the 1991 elections. While the seat share fall was partly due to the SP and BSP coming together, the vote share stagnation was surprising considering political mobilisation around the demolition..

UP does have a history of social justice politics and it is possible that the Opposition's caste census pitch may find more takers in UP than in states like Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan.

X-Factor

Even if Yogi is able to deliver a sweep in UP, it may not guarantee his political future. The manner in which PM Modi, Amit Shah and BJP president JP Nadda replaced Shivraj Singh Chouhan as the MP CM in December 2023 should come as a warning to all BJP CMs. This was done despite the fact that Chouhan had been CM for 18 years and had just delivered a huge win in the Assembly elections.

If the BJP wins another term under PM Modi, it would make him the first PM since Jawaharlal Nehru to win three elections in a row. His dependence on CMs would further reduce if he wins a third term by a huge margin.