Right-wing parties faced defeats in three countries over the past couple of weeks. This holds important lessons for India's Opposition, although with a few caveats.
The Republican Party suffered a massive defeat in the US mid-terms with the Democrats securing control of the Senate as well as the House of Representatives.
Brazil's Left-wing president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva won the run-offs against far-right candidate Flavio Bolsanaro despite trailing him in the first round of elections.
Serbian strongman Aleksandar Vučić's 14-year-rule came to an end as he lost to a neophyte outfit Students' List that was formed following sustained anti-corruption protests in the country.
We can't make an apples-to-apples comparison between India and these countries because there are important differences in the political systems. Brazil follows a presidential system with proportional representation, Serbia has a parliamentary system mixed with proportional representation and the US Senate elections have people in entire states voting for one seat, which doesn't happen in India except in states that have only one seat. So only the elections to the US House of Representatives can be compared to the system in India.
But despite these differences in systems, India has similarities with one or more among these countries: weakening of institutions, collusion between the government and oligarchs, gerrymandering, official measures targeting voting rights of minorities and the poor, hate politics, right wing control of media etc. Then there's the fact that irrespective of the political system, the fundamental exercise in any election remains the same: convincing voters and building social coalitions. That's why these elections do carry important lessons for India's Opposition on how to defeat right-wing populists.
Economy, Economy, Economy
The US mid-terms showed how livelihood issues can trump (no pun intended) hate, ideology and party loyalties. Take for instance the Democrat Party's wins in hardcore Republican states like Texas, Kansas and South Carolina. These states witnessed double-digit swings against the Republicans compared to the 2024 Presidential Elections.
This wouldn't have happened had President Donald Trump not betrayed his promise of 'No Foreign Wars' by attacking Iran. This had a domino effect as it led to Iran blocking the Strait of Hormuz, causing oil prices to skyrocket, which in turn led to a massive rise in prices of essential commodities.
Most of the successful Democratic candidates remained focused on economic issues and avoided what have come to be known as "culture wars".
According to opinion polls, a range of 39 to 50 percent people in the US said the economy was the main issue for them. This is similar to India. According to the August 2026 Mood of the Nation Survey, over 50 percent respondents cited economic issues as their topmost concern (23% price rise, 16% unemployment and 14% economic growth).
After trailing in the first round and in the weeks leading to the run-offs, President Lula introduced a series of policy measures aimed at addressing people's economic woes: 15% increase in payments to lower-income families, reduction the workweek from 6 to 5 days, introduction of a national debt relief programme and a stimulus package for small businesses.
However, this can be a double-edged sword for the Opposition in India. Since the NDA is in power at the Centre and a majority of states, they are better placed to introduce such pre-poll measures compared to the INDIA Bloc.
In either case, the point remains that the economic woes are by far the topmost issue for the people. An economy-focused campaign, therefore, can work to counter the BJP's ideological pitch.
Grassroots Power and Protest Movements
President Lula's win was made possible by a massive grassroots campaign that included trade unions, student unions, environmental organisations etc. In the US, the Democrats were helped a great deal by the No Kings Protest, which transformed from a protest movement to a voter mobilisation exercise ahead of the elections.
The biggest example of street power bringing down a right-wing government was Serbia. The upheaval in Serbia began with the collapse of a railway station canopy at Novi Sad in November 2024, killing 16 people. This sparked massive anti-corruption protests led by students, which later brought in other sections of society.
Constant protests in Serbia for nearly two years helped spread public anger. To ensure that this anger is chanelised into political change, the student protesters formed a 'Students List' of supported candidates, many of whom were apolitical people from different professions. Their win was also facilitated by the fact that several prominent Opposition parties withdrew candidates in support of the Students' List.
All three countries put forward different models of how grassroots organisations and protest movements can help the political Opposition.
In Brazil, Lula himself is a product of the laboyr movement and his party has close linkages with them. In the US, the No Kings Protest, a civil society protest against authoritarianism, mobilised support for the Democratic Party.
In Serbia, it was the opposite, with the mainstream Opposition withdrawing in support of the Students' List.
In India, it remains to be seen how the INDIA Bloc and farm unions, labour unions and outfits like the Cockroach Janta Party engage with each other.
The Congress has in the past co-opted people from community-based movements such as Hardik Patel, Alpesh Thakor and Jignesh Mevani in Gujarat and Hiralal Alawa in Madhya Pradesh. It also allied with Akhil Gogoi, Pranab Doley and AJP who were active in the anti-CAA protest in Assam. But the CJP is a different entity.
Communication and Messaging
A key takeaway is consistency in messaging. A big reason for the success of right-wing parties is their ability to dominate the political discourse, especially towards cultural and "in-group vs out-group" identity politics.
Both the Brazil and US mid-term elections show how consistency in messaging amplified effectively can blunt the right-wing's narratives.
For instance, successful Democratic candidate Senate candidate from Michigan, Abdul El-Sayed, was able to neutralise a brazenly Islamophobic Republican campaign by sticking to his core message of "Money out of politics. Money in your pocket. Medicare for All." As a Muslim and a progressive Democrat, his win in a battleground state is significant and will embolden the Left flank of the Democratic party.
In terms of amplification, the Lula's Army in Brazil, has given an excellent example of digital political communication. Lula's Army is a WhatsApp channel created during the elections by Federal Deputy for Minas Gerais André Janones. It reportedly grew from 3.7 million to 7 million followers within nine days.
There are two key aspects to this. First, the use of military terminology, with its members being designated "soldiers" and assigned daily "missions" of amplifying content.
Second, the conscious decision to not engage with any content from their rivals. Instead they focused on amplifying Lula content, which ranged from speeches and policy promises to gifs and memes. The strategy was to make the campaign seem like a 'carnival' with positive and 'fun' content.
Reach Out to Right-Wing Voters
While Lula's campaign as well as that of a section of Democratic candidates focused on mobilising their base as much as possible, the Democrat Party followed a different strategy in Republican bastions.
For the Kansas Senate seat, the Democrats fielded Adam Hamilton, a pastor who leads one of the most prominent churches in the state. Hamilton made the Democrats win the seat after a gap of 94 years.
In the Texas senate seat, the Democrats fielded a seminarian James Talarico, who invoked God in his speeches much more than is expected of Democratic candidates.
Even Abdul El Sayed released one ad emphasising his 'faith' and another ad featuring endorsement of Conservative influencers like Tucker Carlson.
The Democratic Senate candidate in Mississippi Scott Colom even went to Trump-supporting Make American Great Again rallies to seek their support.
These efforts to reach out to voters on the opposite side of the ideological divide is important. It is based on the understanding that not all right-aligned voters are the same and there is scope for engagement with at least some of them.
Such outreach may have enabled some voters in the US to shift. At the very least, it helped de-polarise the electorate and reduce the motivation of some right-wing voters to back the Republicans despite suffering economically.
The BJP's defeat in strong seats like Bankipur and Datia shows that its voters can also be made to shift.
But India is Not the Same
Besides the difference in political system, there are important differences between these three countries and India and even within these countries.
In Brazil and the US, the two main parties are more or less evenly matched in terms of their base. The percentage of right wing people who won't vote for the Left and vice versa are comparable.
The two sides are also reasonably well matched in terms or organisation and resources, with some differences.
In India there is a major imbalance on all these aspects. The core base of the BJP is bigger than that of the Congress. In 2024, the BJP secured 37 percent votes as opposed to 21 percent for the Congress. Then, in terms of resources, BJP has more funds than other major parties put together.
The entrenchment of biases in society is also very different. Abdul El Sayed became America's first Muslim senator in a state where Muslims are less than 5 percent of the population. That's why his win is more important than Muslims being elected to Congress in the past from known Democrat strongholds.
Since El Sayed secured over 50 percent votes, it's clear that around 90 percent of his voters were non-Muslims. While he had to face a vicious anti-Muslim campaign, there were many Christians and Jews who actively defended him.
It is unthinkable in India for a Muslim to win in an area with such a demographic profile. This is because the core base of secular politics is smaller than the base for right-wing politics. Given this social reality, the latter section will always have veto power against a Muslim candidate.
Hindutva is hegemonic in India, unlike the right-wing in US and Brazil.
One model to counter it can be seen in Serbia, where the Students' List accepted this hegemony even while fighting against Vucic.
The Students' List and Vucic both have a hardline stance on Kosovo, both want cordial relations with Russia and both align themselves to the Serbian Orthodox Church.
The Serbian Model can be seen as more similar to CJP-AAP. Brazil and US represent what the Congress-Left want to be.
These comparisons aren't purely academic. They represent actual networks. The Congress is set to organise the Bharat Summit in Hyderabad later this month. Over 50 progressive parties from across the world are set to participate in it with one of the most important delegations coming from Brazil.