NDA’s Hindi Heartland Wins Since 2019 Hide a Postal Vote Tilt Towards Opposition

After exposing a clear divergence between EVM votes (polled by the general public) and postal votes (polled by Armed Forces personnel and Central government employees) in the recently-concluded Bihar Assembly elections, The Quint has discovered that this difference was marked in previous state Assembly and Lok Sabha elections too.In Bihar, the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) won 202 of the total 243 seats. But curiously, the trends in postal votes were the complete opposite — the Mahagathbandhan was leading in 142 seats, while the NDA was leading in 98.A similar divergence in postal and EVM votes was flagged by Leader of Opposition Rahul Gandhi in his recent press conference alleging malpractices in the 2024 Haryana Assembly election results.In this story, we look at the detailed results of all general elections held between 2019 and 2025, including state Assembly and Lok Sabha, to trace the disparity between EVM and postal votes and examine what it means.For the purpose of this story, we have picked the states where divergence on EVM votes and postal votes was observed in at least 25 percent of the total seats.In the 2024 Haryana Assembly elections, the BJP won 48 of the total 90 seats, narrowly crossing the majority mark of 46. Meanwhile, the Congress won 37 seats.However, in 37 constituencies that the BJP won, the Congress (which was in second place) polled more postal votes than the BJP. For instance, in Indri the winning BJP candidate Raj Kumar Kashyap polled 267 postal votes whereas the Congress candidate who lost from the seat, Rakesh Kamboj, polled 441 postal votes. In all, the divergene between EVM and postal votes was observed in 42 seats or 46 percent of the total Assembly seats.If we see the election results basis postal votes only, the Congress was leading in 73 seats while the BJP led in 16 seats.This wasn't the case in the 2019 Assembly elections, when the BJP had won 40 seats and formed the government in the state. At that time, the BJP had polled more postal votes even in the seats that it had lost to the Congress or JJP. In Haryana, to a great extent, the shift in postal votes reflects the shift in the political choices of the Jat community. A majority of postal voters are in the armed forces. Jats from Haryana are among the communities with a sizable representation in the Army. Therefore, this may partly explain the divergence between postal and EVM votes. In the 2023 Madhya Pradesh Assembly elections, the BJP secured a landslide majority — winning 163 of the total 230 seats — even as the Congress got 66 seats. In terms of postal votes, however, the winning BJP candidate polled fewer votes than the Congress (which was in the second place) in 133 constituencies. For example in Gwalior seat, the winning BJP candidate Pradhuman Singh Tomar polled 914 postal votes whereas, the Congress candidate in the second place Sunil Sharma polled 1,278 postal votes.In all, the divergence between EVM and postal votes was observed in 135 seats or more than half of the total Assembly seats.If we see the election results basis postal votes only, the Congress would be leading in 183 seats while the BJP would lead in 45 seats. Now let us compare this to the 2018 Assembly elections, where the Congress had emerged as the single-largest party by winning 114 seats; while the BJP was a close second securing 109 seats. At that time too, the Congress had polled more postal votes than the BJP in at least 48 seats that it lost to the BJP. This indicates that postal votes in MP have favoured the Congress in the last two elections. In the 2023 elections to Rajasthan's 200-seat Assembly, the BJP won with a landlide majority — clinching 115 seats — even as the predecessor Congress managed to win 70 seats.But in 66 constituencies that the BJP won, the Congress (which was in second place) polled more postal votes than the BJP. For example in Kotputli seat, the winning BJP candidate polled 748 postal votes whereas, the Congress candidate in the second place polled 1,444 postal votes or nearly double when compared to the winner.In all, the divergene between EVM and postal votes was observed in 78 seats or nearly 40 percent of the total Assembly seats.If we see the election results basis postal votes only, the Congress would be leading in 133 seats while the BJP would lead in 54 seats.Again, when we compared it to the 2018 Assembly elections in the state, when the Congress had swept 99 seats while the BJP had secured 73, we found that the Congress polled more postal votes than the BJP in at least 32 seats that it lost to the BJP.This indicates that postal votes in Rajasthan have favoured the Congress in the last two elections.In the 2023 Chhattisgarh elections, the BJP won 54 of the 90 Assembly seats and secured a comfortable majority to form the government. Meanwhile, the Congress which was previously in power in the state managed to get 35 seats, ten short of the majority mark. Postal votes wise, however, the Congress was leading in 17 seats that the BJP won. For example in Korba seat, the winning BJP candidate Lakhanlal Devangan polled 570 postal votes whereas, the Congress candidate in the second place Jaisingh Agrawal polled 647 postal votes.In all, the divergene between EVM and postal votes was observed in 28 seats or one in every three Assembly seats. If we see the election results basis postal votes only, the Congress would be leading in 49 seats while the BJP would lead in 40 seats.In the 2018 elections, when the Congress swept 68 seats, the party polled more postal votes in at least 8 seats it lost to the BJP. In the 2022 elections to Uttar Pradesh's 403-seat Assembly, the BJP secured a comfortable majority by winning 255 seats. Meanwhile, the Samajwadi Party (SP) was the second-largest party getting 111 seats. However, in terms of postal votes, SP (which was in second place) was leading in 107 seats which the BJP had won. For example, in Mainpuri seat BJP's winning candidate Jayveer Singh polled 369 postal votes; while the SP candidate Raju Yadav, who was in second place, polled 867 postal votes.In all, the divergene between EVM and postal votes was observed in 117 seats or one in every three Assembly seats.If we see the election results basis postal votes only, SP would be leading in 226 seats while the BJP would lead in 175 seats.In the 2017 elections, when the BJP had swept 312 seats in the state Assembly, a similar divergence was evident in 114 constituencies. In at least 94 seats that the BJP won, the SP/BSP/Congress had polled more postal votes than the BJP's winning candidate. In the 2020 Bihar Assembly Elections, RJD had emerged as the single largest party, securing 75 seats while the BJP was a close second winning 74 seats. Meanwhile, the JD(U), which fought the elections in alliance with the BJP, won 43 seats giving the NDA a clear edge to form the government in the 243-seat Bihar Assembly. The Congress managed to win 19 seats.However, in terms of postal votes, the RJD and Congress (constituents of the Mahagathbandhan) were leading in 66 seats which the BJP had won. In all, divergence between postal and EVM votes was observed in 111 seats or in 45 percent of the total constituencies. Of these, Mahagathbandhan parties led in 101 seats which the NDA bloc won. In terms of postal votes only, the seat tally would have looked somewhat like this:RJD: 70Congress: 54BJP: 20JD(U): 11If we compare it with the recently-concluded Bihar Assembly elections, it becomes evident that postal votes have largely been polled in favour of the Mahagathbandhan. In the 2020 Delhi elections, the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) had swept 62 of the 70 Assembly seats, winning a landslide majority over the BJP. However, the BJP secured more postal votes in 46 constituencies — more than half — that AAP won. If we see the election results in terms of postal votes only, then AAP led in 11 seats while the BJP led in 58 seats. In the 2025 Delhi Assembly elections, the BJP secured 48 seats and formed the government in the capital city for the first time in 27 years, while the AAP managed to win 22 seats. In terms of postal votes, the BJP led in 16 seats which the AAP had won. This means in the last two elections, the BJP secured more postal votes than AAP presumably because of the presence of more central government employees in Delhi.In the 2024 Lok Sabha Elections, although the BJP emerged as the single-largest party by winning 240 seats, it was unable to cross the majority mark of 272 on its own. This not only indicated a weakening dominance (the BJP had anticipated a victory on more than 400 seats), but also meant that the BJP would have to rely on its allies such as JD(U) and TDP to form the government at the Centre.Meanwhile, the Congress had doubled its tally to 99 seats even as the party-led INDIA bloc bettered their performance when compared to the 2019 Lok Sabha elections.Here too, divergence between EVM votes and postal votes was observed in 68 constituencies. Of these, in 36 constituencies that were won by the NDA, the INDIA bloc parties led in terms of postal votes.Now, let's compare this with the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, when the BJP had swept 303 seats. Here the divergence between EVM and postal votes was observed in 45 seats. Of these, in at least 20 seats the NDA lost, the bloc had polled more postal votes than the winning parties — indicating more postal votes in favour of the NDA. So the NDA, which had dominated the 2019 elections, did even better in postal votes. To a great extent, this may have been because of the surge in support for the government among armed forces personnel, following the Pulwama terror attack and Balakot strike.Armed forces personnel and government employees don't exist in a vacuum and therefore it is curious if they are voting in a completely different direction from the rest of the electorate. However, there are factors which could lead to a divergence. First, the BJP has been consistently underperforming among postal voters since it introduced the Agniveer scheme in 2022. This could explain why the party may not be doing well among serving armed forces personnel, who form the major chunk among postal voters. Second, postal voters are not subject to polling day mobilisation by parties. Therefore, parties who rely a lot on 'ground game' may not have the same advantage among postal voters which they have in terms of EVM votes. Third, men account for a disproportionately large chunk of postal voters, mainly due to a majority of security personnel and government officers being men. So if there is a gender based divergence in voting, as many surveys did indicate in the context of Bihar, it may get amplified in postal votes. Fourth, as we discussed earlier, certain communities like Jats and to some extent Ahirs, are present in the armed forces in large numbers. The political mood within these communities could impact BJP's performance in postal votes.

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In 7 Elections that NDA Won Since 2019, Postal Votes Favoured Opposition Parties

The BJP has been consistently underperforming among postal voters since it introduced the Agniveer scheme in 2022.

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Topics: Assembly elections Lok Sabha Elections uttar pradesh elections 2022