Millions of newspaper readers in Maharashtra, on Tuesday, 13 June, woke up to a full-page ad splashed on the front pages of many prominent dailies titled 'Modi for India, Shinde for Maharashtra: The Dream Team Loved by All.'
The slogan was an unmistakable reference to the Bharatiya Janata Party leaders' oft-repeated dialogue of 'double engine government.'
Except, this ad had Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena's branding on it and not the BJP.
The ad also had only one photo – Prime Minister Narendra Modi with Chief Minister Eknath Shinde – and only Shiv Sena symbol in a corner.
The pro-Eknath Shinde ad published on Tuesday, 13 June.
When asked about the ad, Shinde told mediapersons, "Our government works under the guidance of the country's prime minister Narendra Modi. This is a double engine government."
He also tried to play down the matter of Deputy Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis' missing photo. "Photo may be there or not but both of us are in people's hearts and that is more important."
The Ad Didn't Go Down Well With the BJP
Before the current CM joined hands with the BJP in June 2022, the slogan 'Narendra in the Country, Devendra in the State' was popular among the BJP followers. It is also not a secret that Fadnavis wasn't happy about having to cede the CM post to Shinde last year.
The tagline of 'Modi for India, Shinde for Maharashtra' wouldn't have gone down well with him.
On Tuesday, he cancelled his scheduled Kolhapur visit, apparently because he was upset over the ad. The official reason given was that he wanted to avoid air travel due to a problem to his eardrum. Otherwise a media-savvy politician, he refused to speak to reporters on Tuesday.
What may have really ticked off Fadnavis and the BJP was the claim in the ad that more people wanted Shinde to return as CM in the next term than Fadnavis.
The ad had cited a recent survey by Zee News-Matrize stating that 26.1% wished to see Shinde as CM in the next term, ahead of Fadnavis, who was preferred by 23.2% people.
BJP State President Chandrakant Bawankule said that it was wrong to conclude that Shinde was ahead and Fadnavis has fallen behind.
In another oblique hint that the BJP was upset, CM Shinde's photo was missing from all the posters about Tuesday's Cabinet decisions that were shared by the saffron party on Twitter.
As the ad generated more and more heat through the day, the Shiv Sena was in a damage control mode by the end of the day. Shiv Sena leader and minister in the Maharashtra Cabinet, Shamburaj Desai, said that the ad may be from a well-wisher and had no connection with his party.
"The ad that has come out in the newspapers today has no connection with the Shiv Sena. Some well-wisher may have given this ad," he told mediapersons.
The pro-Eknath Shinde ad published on Wednesday, 14 June.
On Wednesday morning, Maharashtra's newspaper readers woke up to another ad. This time, there were a lot of photos – Modi, Amit Shah, Anand Dighe and Balasaheb Thackeray on top banner while Fadnavis prominently featured with Shinde in the middle and all the nine ministers from the Shiv Sena party (excluding Shinde) on the bottom banner. The ad copy also spoke about the preference for and the achievements of the BJP-Shiv Sena alliance; there was none of the gloating of Shinde trumping Fadnavis in popularity.
Does Shinde Want to Assert Himself in the Alliance?
If the BJP-Shiv Sena alliance comes to power next year (the assembly elections would most likely be held in late 2024), Shinde would like to return as chief minister.
A few months ago, BJP State President Chandrashekhar Bawankule had stirred the pot by saying that he wants to see Fadnavis as CM. “We don’t want to install Fadnavis on the highest post just for the sake of it…but for changing the fortunes of Maharashtra,” he had said.
Through Tuesday's ad, maybe Shinde's backers wanted to give the message that he will not give up the top post without a fight.
But more than the CM seat itself, Shinde probably wants to assert himself in the alliance as the BJP leaders have been undermining and humiliating his party in public again and again.
In March, Bawankule had stated that the BJP would fight on 240 assembly seats, leaving only 48 seats to Shinde's party. After he had sufficiently embarrassed the BJP's alliance partner, he said that his statement was misunderstood.
In a speech on 11 June to his party cadre, BJP MLA Sanjay Kelkar staked claim on Thane as well as Kalyan parliamentary constituencies. While the Thane constituency is currently represented by Rajan Vichare of the Uddhav Thackeray faction, Shinde's son Shrikant Shinde is the incumbent MP in Kalyan, serving his second term.
Kelkar claimed that the entire (undivided) Thane district (before its bifurcation in 2014) was the BJP's bastion in the past.
Thane-Kalyan area is considered Shinde's political centre where his core strength lies. (The other parliamentary constituency in the district, Bhiwandi, is currently with the BJP.)
If the Thane and Kalyan constituencies go to the BJP in the next year's Lok Sabha elections, it will not just affect his party's numbers but it'll also be a major moral downer for him and his cadre.
Shrikant Shinde looked visibly anguished while responding to Kelkar's comments. He said in a video message,
"People in the Kalyan constituency elected me with a big margin. Since then I have been working by taking cadre of both parties' together. When the work is going so well, people should not bring fissures in the alliance ... If tomorrow I am asked to resign from the post, I am ready to resign and work for the party and the alliance."
Rumours are also floating that the BJP high command isn't happy about five of Shiv Sena ministers and wants Shinde to drop them. It is said that the BJP considers them a liability for their under-performance and controversies surrounding them.
However, this allegedly has led to discontent within the Shinde camp, which already is unhappy that the Cabinet hasn't been expanded to accommodate more MLAs as ministers as promised.
Fodder for the Opposition
Whatever the intentions of Shinde's Shiv Sena in publishing the ad, it gave enough fodder to the Opposition to get back at the ruling alliance.
Shiv Sena (UBT) leader Sanjay Raut lambasted Shinde for not using the picture of Balasaheb Thackeray or mentioning him anywhere in the ad.
"In this advertising campaign of crores of rupees, the people who call themselves the true heirs of Balasaheb Thackeray have included Modi's photo but Balasaheb Thackeray's photo is nowhere to be seen. Whose Sena is this? This is Modi Sena ... This is not Shiv Sena, it is Modi-Shah's Sena."– Sanjay Raut
Nationalist Congress Party MP Supriya Sule turned the numbers in the ad against Shinde. She said that if only 46.4% people preferred the BJP and Shiv Sena parties combined, it means majority of the people were against them.
She also quite amused herself over the fact that Shinde had embarrassed Fadnavis by showing that he trumped his deputy in popularity. "You have come first (in the survey), right? Why do you need to say that Fadnavis is second or behind you? Isn't this an insult of Devendraji?"
How Reliable Is the Survey Cited in the Ad?
The Zee News-Matrize survey predicts 165-185 seats to the BJP-Shiv Sena alliance and 88-118 seats to the Maha Vikas Aghadi if the elections were held at this time. When asked about Shinde's work as CM, 51% termed it better and 27% called it satisfactory while only 17% were unhappy with it.
While the survey results are quite flattering for Shinde, whether they are reliable is another question.
Ahead of the recently-held Karnataka assembly elections, Zee News-Matrize survey had predicted that the BJP would emerge as the single-largest party with 103-115 seats while the Congress would get 79-91 seats. In reality, while the Congress won a whopping 137 seats, the BJP got only 65.
Even in last year's Himachal Pradesh elections, the Matrize poll predicted 35-40 seats for the BJP and 26-31 for the Congress. In the end, the Congress got 40 and the BJP 25.
Also, if Shinde were to move his gaze towards other surveys, he may have a cause to worry. According to last month's survey by Sakal media group, when people were asked what party they would vote for in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, only 5.5% chose Shinde's Shiv Sena. This was way less than even Uddhav's Shiv Sena, which was preferred by 12.5%. You can read more about this survey here.
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