The Congress' announcement that it would be opposing the Centre's ordinance giving itself greater power in the Delhi administration may have made the numbers' game a little tougher. But it may not be enough to defeat the Bill.
The passage of the Bill in the Lok Sabha is a foregone conclusion with the BJP-led NDA having a comfortable majority in the House.
The Congress' support gives the Aam Aadmi Party some hope of resisting the Bill in the Rajya Sabha but it may not be enough.
The Numbers' Game
The total strength of the Rajya Sabha is 245, but 7 seats are vacant bringing the total strength to 238 and the half-way mark to 119.
The NDA currently has 111 seats. This includes NCP Rajya Sabha MP Praful Patel who has split the party and joined the NDA along with Ajit Pawar.
The UPA has 63 seats. Then other parties opposing the ordinance - such as the Trinamool Congress, AAP, Samajwadi Party, the Left parties and the Bharat Rashtriya Samithi together have 42 seats. This includes SP-backed Independent Kapil Sibal.
This brings the total of the anti-ordinance parties to 105, that is if their floor managers ensure full attendance.
The deciding factor would be the regional parties that are unaligned and have yet not expressed their support or opposition to the ordinance.
The Fence-Sitters
These parties put together account for 22 seats. Of these the YSRCP and the Biju Janata Dal are the main players with nine seats each.
Then the Bahujan Samaj Party, Sikkim Democratic Front, Janata Dal (Secular) and Telugu Desam Party have one seat each.
The make or break factor will be the BJD and YSRCP.
Possible Scenarios
NDA needs the support of one out of these two parties. Even if one of them comes on board, the NDA would cross the halfway mark even if all the remaining MPs go with the Opposition.
If one of these two parties abstains, the halfway mark would come down to 115. The NDA can reach that with the support of the four single-seat parties.
The Opposition would still need the abstention of one party and support of the other party among the YSRCP and BJD. Even then the Opposition would need one more MP to cross the halfway mark.
Even if both the parties abstain, the NDA would be comfortable as it would bring the halfway mark down to 110.
What Will the BJD and YSRCP do?
Both these parties have supported the BJP on most critical legislations like the abrogation of Article 370, the Triple Talaq Bill or the farm bills.
However, since the Delhi ordinance involves a question of federalism, their support cannot be taken for granted.
Being regional parties running state governments, they may not necessarily approve of legislations that provide the space for greater central intervention.
However the ordinance concerns only Delhi and not states like Odisha and Andhra Pradesh so there's still grounds for the government to seek their support.
In the end, it may boil down more to political equations rather than the merits of the Bill.
The YSRCP has consistently avoided confrontation on any issue that doesn't concern Andhra Pradesh.
There is speculation regarding the increasing closeness between the BJP and the Telugu Desam Party, which is the YSRCP's main rival in Andhra Pradesh.
The YSRCP has two options in this context. It could choose to oppose it and send the message that it is open to taking a stand if the BJP acts against its interests. Conversely, it could also support the ordinance as a goodwill gesture to try and scuttle any TDP-BJP alliance.
The BJD's position is more complex. The party has good ties with the BJP at the central level but the latter is its main rival at the state level.
A lot would also depend on what the Opposition has to offer these two parties. Since the ordinance directly affects the AAP, it would be up to party chief Arvind Kejriwal to reach out to Naveen Patnaik and YS Jagan Mohan Reddy. Bihar CM Nitish Kumar, who has a decent rapport with Patnaik could also be of help.
But the BJP is obviously at an advantage as it would have much more to offer these two parties than the Opposition.
Unless the YSRCP and BJD do something surprising, AAP's may have to look towards the judiciary for a way out.
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