As the counting of votes continues, a clear pattern has emerged in Assam. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is clearly set to retain Assam with a resounding victory, with Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma is slated for the second term.
The pattern also validates most exit polls for the Assam Assembly elections 2026 which had projected a clear return of the BJP-led government under CM Sarma, forecasting a comfortable majority in the 126-seat Assembly.
The BJP-led NDA was predicted to secure a landslide poll triumph by winning between 88 and 100 seats, per Axis My India exit poll.
This time, the BJP in Assam is witnessing a landslide win with leading in almost 100 seats. As of 12:30 pm, the BJP was leading in 78 seats, with its alliance parties, Bodoland People's Front (BPF) leading in 10, and Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) also leading in 9 seats.
While the BJP has fielded 90 candidates, the AGP and the BPF have 26 and 11 nominees, respectively. The Opposition alliance comprises the Congress with 99 candidates, Raijor Dal with 13, Assam Jatiya Parishad with 10, CPI(M) with three, and All Party Hill Leaders Conference (APHLC) with two.
In the 2021 Assembly elections, the NDA won 75 seats, out of which BJP won 60 seats. The Congress won 29 and All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF) won 16 seats.
A Mix of Hindutva Politics & Welfarism
While CM Sarma is known to having a penchant for spreading Islamophobia, Hindutva politics and xenophobic rhetoric, that alone is not the only factor that has worked for him.
This election season was a mix, rather a concoction of Hindutva politics as well as welfare schemes.
Hindutva Factor: When it comes to the former, the BJP went up a notch this time and published the 'point-blank shot' video where CM Sarma was seen shooting a skull-cap wearing Gaurav Gogoi and another Muslim, essentially giving a message to Muslims of Assam. This video was then condemned and removed from social media.
Apart from this, throughout the election season, CM Sarma had made remarks against 'Miya' Muslims, either about evicting them, "troubling them" or "removing 4-5 lakh Miya" voters from electoral rolls during SIR.
Welfare Schemes Galore: Even as he continued with his extremist views about Muslims, the BJP also launched various schemes for women and youth.
Some of them being Orunodoi cash transfer scheme and Mukhyamantri Mahila Udyamita Abhiyan (MMUA), aimed at empowering women. He also launched the Jibon Anuprerana scheme, aimed to provide direct financial support to youth and scholars.
Earlier in April, CM Sarma announced the distribution of mustard oil at subsidised rates and two free LPG cylinders a year among around 70 lakh ration cardholders. The ruling party has also promised to increase the monthly assistance under its flagship Orunodoi scheme to ₹3,000 from ₹1,250.
Both Orunodoi and MMUA have around 40 lakh women beneficiaries. The government has transferred over ₹8,000 crore to the beneficiaries under these schemes since September 2025, said CM Sarma, as per this report.
Through this scheme, he also wooed women, youth and tea garden workers in several states. Ahead of the polls, the government also hiked the daily wage of tea garden workers by ₹30, launched distribution of land pattas to permanent garden workers and distributed a ₹5,000 one-time grant through direct-benefit transfer.
Another scheme that BJP launched ahead of the elections was the Mukhya Mantrir Nijut Babu Aasoni (Babu Scheme), launched by the Assam government in early 2026, provides monthly financial aid to male students from low-income families pursuing higher education (UG/PG).
Apart from this, CM also spoke about restoring land rights of indigenous and tribal communities, protecting forest areas and ensuring proper land governance. This is often seen in this popular line the CM also repeats: "Jati, Mati, Bheti" (Community, Land and Hearth).
Although, this has been coupled with unfounded rhetoric of 'land jihad' claims and a cultivating a fear of alleged 'Bangladeshis' and 'Rohingyas' occupying land and resources which the CM has claimed to fight against.
Even in its manifesto, the party promised more crackdowns on the community, including a proposal to implement a Uniform Civil Code, which, according to critics, will override Muslim personal laws on marriage, divorce and inheritance.
The Delimitation Angle: What also remains to be seen is the impact that the 2023 delimitation would have on the seats as many Muslim-concentrated seats in places like Barpeta, Nagaon belt, Goalpara, Barak Valley (Karimganj-Hailakandi) either saw boundaries withdrawn and the concentration of Muslims was diluted by merging seats with other districts.
The counting began at 8 am on 4 May. Polling was held on 9 April. The voter turnout in Assam was 85.9%, the highest ever in the state. In the 2021 polls, the state had recorded a turnout of 82%.