Bihar Caste Census: Is it a National Gamechanger? That Will Depend On...

There are 3 reasons why the Bihar caste census is important. Can it counter Hindutva? We need to look state-wise

On 2 October, the Bihar government released the findings of the caste census it conducted this year.

This is no doubt a significant win for the Nitish Kumar-led Mahagathbandhan government in Bihar that had to fight in court to establish its right to conduct such a survey.

This is the category-wise break-up of Bihar's population as given in the caste census:

• Backward Castes: 27.13%

• Extremely Backward Castes: 36.01%

• Scheduled Castes: 19.65%

• Scheduled Tribes: 1.68%

• Unreserved: 15.52%

This article will try to answer these two questions:

• Why is this survey important?

• Can it become a game changer in Indian politics?

Why is this survey important? There are three broad reasons for it.

1. Data to Back Social Justice Politics

A key principle in social justice politics has been what Kanshiram termed "Jiski jitni sankhya bhaari, uski utni hissedaari" (Share in power and positions should be as per share in population).

This survey now gives data to support this assertion.

Let's look at it this way.

Currently no major political party opposes caste-based reservation.

Even the RSS has gone back on its earlier position of asking for a relook of quotas. Recently, RSS chief Mohan Bhagwat said that "people should be willing to suffer for 200 years as retribution" for historical caste based discrimination.

No party that supports the idea of reservation can oppose the principle that the quantum of reservation should at least broadly reflect the actual share of population. Both logically and politically, it would make no sense.

Any party opposing this would, in effect, be supporting reservation of 50 percent of seats for 15 percent of the population that comes in the general category.

Now with the Bihar caste census in the public domain, Opposition parties will now have a pretext to demand a nationwide caste census and, in turn, call for:

• Removal of the 50 percent ceiling in reservation to educational institutions and government jobs imposed by the Supreme Court.

• Increase in the overall quantum of reservation based on a caste census. This would certainly mean increasing the OBC quota but possibly even the SC and ST could should the data show a higher share in population.

• Extending OBC reservation to legislative bodies.

2. Mandal Pushback Against Politics of Kamandal

It took BJP almost 25 years to counter Mandal politics through Hindutva mobilisation and its own social engineering.

The overall narrative of Hindu unity gave the BJP the plank to consolidate non-dominant OBCs and smaller SC groups and pit them against social justice based parties like SP and BSP in Uttar Pradesh. The latter were presented as protecting only the interests of dominant sections within reserved categories as well as Muslims.

If the caste census and the increase in quotas becomes a potent political plank, it could potentially turn the '80 vs 20' or Hindu consolidation politics on its head. In that sense, it would mean another Mandal pushback against the politics of Kamandal.

It could potentially provide the plank to unite a different kind of "80 percent" - a consolidation of Dalits, Adivasis and OBCs.

However, the operative word here is "potentially". Can it really happen? We'll come to it later in the article.

3. Breaks Down the Muslim Monolith

Soon after the caste census data was released, a number of pro-Hindutva social media users started spreading misinformation that caste census was a survey to divide Hindus and that Muslims were considered a consolidated bloc.

This is not correct. The survey gave both religion and caste data.

As per the religion census, Hindus constitute close to 82 percent of Bihar's population and Muslims are about 17.7 percent.

However, in the caste census both Hindu and Muslim communities have been listed according to their caste groups.

Roughly three-fourths of Muslims in Bihar come under OBC or EBC category while around one fourth come under the general category.

The survey shows that Muslims can't be considered a monolith and, like Hindus, are divided into different caste groups.

This could potentially lead to a churn within Muslims, with OBC and EBC Muslims demanding greater political representation.

Of course when it comes to communal discrimination and hate crimes, OBC, EBC and general category Muslims all have been at the receiving end.

But in terms of political representation, Muslims from an OBC or EBC background remain underrepresented.

Can This Be a Gamechanger in Politics?

Theoretically, yes. For the three reasons given above. But in reality, it won't be easy.

A lot would depend on the INDIA bloc's ability to mobilise people on this issue. This isn't an issue on which speeches and announcements alone can lead to mobilisation. A lot of groundwork will be required. A critical element here is leadership.

VP Singh was able to consolidate OBC votes in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar after he announced implementation of the Mandal commission report, because he had the support of strong OBC leaders like Mulayam Singh Yadav, Lalu Prasad and Nitish Kumar.

However, they couldn't grow into states where there were no such leaders or there wasn't a strong history of social justice based politics.

Presently, the INDIA bloc has a strong line-up of OBC leaders Nitish Kumar and Bhupesh Baghel (Kurmi), Lalu Prasad, Akhilesh Yadav and Tejaswi Yadav (Ahir), Jayant Chaudhary (Jat), Ashok Gehlot (Mali), Siddaramaiah (Kuruba), MK Stalin (Vellalar).

Then three of the INDIA constituents are headed by Dalits - Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge, CPI general secretary D Raja and VCK president Thol. Thirumavalavan and one by an Adivasi - JMM president Shibu Soren.

However, there are presently a great deal of state level variations in the INDIA bloc's capacity to mobilise on this issue.

Let's Look State-Wise

Bihar: The pioneer of the caste census, Bihar represents the state with the highest potential for an OBC consolidation behind the INDIA bloc. This is because the alliance presently has support of both the biggest dominant OBC caste (Yadavs) due to the RJD as well as a major chunk of the non-dominant OBCs due to the JD-U. In his over 15 years as Bihar CM, Kumar, though from the dominant OBC Kurmi caste, has painstakingly built a base of non-dominant OBC castes.

Unless there is a Hindutva or nationalist wave, the BJP may find it difficult to break the INDIA bloc's advantage in Bihar.

Uttar Pradesh: Here the BJP has managed to turn non-dominant OBCs against the SP, that is seen as a party representing the interests of the dominant OBC Yadav community and Muslims. Akhilesh Yadav managed to go beyond the Yadav-Muslim base to some extent in the 2022 Assembly elections but was still far behind the BJP among non-Yadav OBCs.

The caste census could potentially help Akhilesh Yadav at least begin consolidating other OBC groups as well. The party would need to actively promote non-Yadav OBC leaders like Swami Prasad Maurya and Naresh Uttam Patel.

Karnataka: This is another state where the caste census could work to the INDIA bloc's advantage. CM Siddaramaiah's political base lies in the consolidation of non-dominant OBCs, Dalits and minorities. By aligning with the JD-S, the BJP seems to be trying to consolidate Upper Castes and the two dominant peasant castes - Lingayats and Vokkaligas.

Haryana: This could be an interesting case because here the Congress' politics is mainly hinged on Jats and Dalits while OBC castes like Gujjars, Ahirs and Sainis are firmly with the BJP. It won't be easy for the Congress to break this so long as it is seen as a Jat party.

Maharashtra: Like Haryana, here the Congress and NCP's base has traditionally been with the dominant agrarian community - Marathas in this case. This gave the BJP a chance to expand among OBCs. However, now the BJP has been trying to woo Marathas and in the process has alienated a part of its OBC base. It remains to be seen how the caste census changes dynamics in Maharashtra at a time when the Maratha reservation question is in focus.