Since Ajit Pawar went incommunicado for a day early this month, the political circles are abuzz with the rumours that he may again join hands with the Bharatiya Janata Party. The media has been endlessly speculating that the nephew of the Nationalist Congress Party supremo, Sharad Pawar, is secretly trying to strike a deal with the BJP to get the chief minister's post.
Pawar, who is the Leader of Opposition in the Maharashtra Legislative Assembly, himself has fanned these rumours in his jocular and satirical style while speaking to mediapersons.
It was also alleged that he had a clandestine meeting with Union Home Minister Amit Shah in Delhi, though no one has been able to confirm it. Also, the Enforcement Directorate has curiously dropped the names of Pawar and his wife Sunetra from the charge sheet in the Maharashtra State Cooperative (MSC) Bank money laundering case.
Pawar is an unpredictable politician much like his uncle. Further, he had already attempted a similar (albeit unsuccessful) coup in 2019 to take oath as deputy chief minister under the leadership of Devendra Fadnavis as CM. That's the reason the current rumours have received so much traction. However, here are four reasons why it is hard to believe that the BJP and Ajit dada faction are planning to unseat CM Eknath Shinde.
1. Not Much to Gain for BJP
Even if Ajit Pawar is willing, there is no reason for the BJP to break ties with Shinde-led Shiv Sena. Although the CM post is currently with the Shiv Sena, the BJP unarguably has upper hand in the alliance. In all likelihood, it will win more seats than the Shinde faction in 2024 assembly elections, after which it can stake claim to the top post if alliance gets a majority.
While it is true that deputy CM's post was a demotion for Fadnavis after serving as CM for five years, there isn't much he can do about it now. The BJP top leadership isn't going to orchestrate another coup just to satisfy its state leader's ambitions.
Also, a section of Maharashtra's voters has continued to stay angry at the BJP for the way it unseated Uddhav Thackeray from the CM post and played an active role in splitting Shiv Sena vertically. If the response that Thackeray is getting to his public meetings is any indication, a large number of Maharashtra's voters sympathise with him.
If the BJP were to dump Shinde and align with Pawar, it would further dent the image of the saffron party. And there is no question of Pawar joining the alliance while Shinde remains the CM. The coalition doesn't have space for three ambitious leaders when the top posts are only two.
2. Assembly Elections Are Only a Year and a Half Away
The term of the Maharashtra Legislative Assembly will end in October 2024. Neither Ajit Pawar nor BJP would want to put so much at stake for a government that will last only a year and a half.
Also, Maharashtra has already seen a lot of instability in its politics in the current term. Anyone who adds to that situation will not be looked at favourably by the state's voters.
And let's face it – Sharad Pawar is no Uddhav Thackeray. The Pawar senior, who became an MLA for the first time in 1967, has dominated Maharashtra's politics for the last five decades – if Ajit dada plans a coup behind the Pawar senior's back, he may lose face again like in 2019.
3. Kahin Pe Nigahen Kahin Pe Nishana?
The talk is about the chief minister's post but it seems that Ajit Pawar has fuelled this rumour mill with a different motive.
It is being said that the next year's Lok Sabha and Vidhan Sabha elections will be the last elections in which Sharad Pawar will actively participate as he is already 82 years old. The answer to who will be the successor to him is not at all clear. Will the mantle go to his nephew Ajit Pawar, daughter Supriya Sule or an outsider like Jayant Patil?
Since CM post is the most an NCP leader (who is not Sharad Pawar) can aim for and if it is assumed that that post will go to the tallest NCP leader, Ajit Pawar has started playing his cards in advance.
Sule's biggest asset is that she is the daughter of Pawar senior. She has also shown her skills as an able parliamentarian. However, as an MP since 2006, she is considered a bit of an outsider to the state politics. She is also a decade younger than Ajit Pawar.
Pawar, on the other hand, has been involved in the state politics from the very beginning. He was elected as MLA in 1991 and has served in that capacity since then. He has also served as deputy chief minister twice, once under Prithviraj Chavan and once under Uddhav Thackeray.
4. A Message to MVA?
From Ramrao Adik to Gopinath Munde to Chhagan Bhujbal, Maharashtra has seen a number of deputy CMs but none of them managed to climb to the top post. Ajit Pawar would surely like to break that jinx.
As the CM of the previous Maha Vikas Aghadi government, Thackeray may like to think of himself as the leader of the coalition. But after losing a majority of MLAs and cadre to the Shinde faction, Thackeray group's power has greatly diminished.
In such a scenario, if the NCP emerges as the party with the highest number of MLAs in the next assembly elections, Pawar would like the CM post to go to the NCP and in turn, to himself.
In a recent interview with a Marathi media house, Ajit Pawar expressed disappointment at the fact that in 2004, when the NCP had won two MLA seats more than the Congress, the CM post still had gone to the Congress. The NCP, which was founded as a breakaway faction from the Indian National Congress in 1999, has never given a CM to Maharashtra. Pawar may want to break that jinx too.
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