The second phase of polling in the urban body elections (Nagriya Nikay Chunav) in Madhya Pradesh concluded on Wednesday, 13 July, leaving both the Congress and Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) anxious about the results.
Unlike previous polls, the mayoral urban body elections, conducted after 7 years, saw fierce competition, with all the top leaders from both parties sweating it out on the field.
In fact, both the Congress and BJP, the two major political parties in the state, consider these polls nothing short of a semi-final before the ultimate battle – the MP Assembly elections of 2023.
Be it the superfast rallies and roadshows of Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chauhan and Madhya Pradesh Congress chief Kamal Nath or the behind-the-curtain efforts of leaders like Congress' Digvijaya Singh and BJP's state president VD Sharma, the two parties left no stone unturned in their campaigns.
However, a low voter turnout may have come as an anticlimax for both parties, with figures dropping in the capital Bhopal from 56 percent in 2014 to 51.6 percent in 2022.
The poor turnout wasn't limited to Bhopal. In fact, all 11 mayoral seats polled in the first phase saw a decline in voting percentage – a steep fall of 12.28 percentage points in Singrauli, and a 10.27 points decline in Khandwa, among others.
Voter Turnout Leaves Both Congress & BJP Puzzled
Many in the BJP were expecting a swift victory and were also confident about the party's success in the polls, which was mostly riding on the support of the RSS and related organisations. The voter turnout, however, has muddied the expectations to a large extent.
"The biggest experiment by the BJP in these elections was to test how many seats it could win on the basis of its symbol and organisation. The candidates were finalised in this manner. Those who hardly thought they would contest for the councilor's post were given mayoral tickets. In BJP, it is the organisation that fights the elections. They are trying to see its extent and impact in these elections. In the Congress, however, the elections are anchored by individual candidates. There isn't any strong organisational support, and this difference will have its impact.A senior journalist, who does not wish to be named
However, a senior BJP leader, on the condition of anonymity, told The Quint that after the first phase of voting, the situation has become somewhat incomprehensible.
It appears that the low voter turnout has created doubt in everybody's minds.
Amidst all the political equations and analyses, the scenes on the ground are also quite varied – ranging from tussles between candidates to candidates asking people to return their money after losing the elections.
Moreover, the elections were marred by torrential rains, and many believe that it might play an important role in determining the winners.
The low voting percentage has not only put the BJP in a tough spot but also the Congress, though it had announced its candidates days before the saffron party.
Mayoral seats like Bhopal, Indore, Ujjain, Satna, and Singrauli are believed to witness a strong fight. Of them, Singrauli could be a hot seat, considering Aam Aadmi Party convener Arvind Kejriwal's roadshow.
Infighting & Rebels Also a Cause for Concern
Reportedly, both the Congress and BJP appear to have secured an almost equal mandate in the rural body elections, whose official results are to be announced on 14-15 July.
Both parties have claimed almost equal number of seats in gram panchayat and zilla panchayat levels across the state, shifting the limelight onto the results of the urban body polls.
Experts believe that both parties are suffering from dissent at the lower rungs. For the BJP, rebels might become the key factor in determining the results, whereas, for the Congress, an inconsistent excitement is a cause for concern.
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