What kind of future are these cities staring at and how long into the future is it?

It is hard to answer that with precision. The rate of sea-level rise is uncertain. We use [the year] 2100 as a benchmark for no particularly good reason but just to pick some benchmark which is in common use. The estimates of global sea-level rise for 2100 compared to pre-industrial time are between 1-2 feet at the low end and 6 [feet] on the higher end. A metre [3.2 feet] is now a middle-of-the-road estimate. In the previous IPCC report [released in October, 2014], it was the high end.

Your team looked at the possibility of a cyclone making landfall in Mumbai. Could you elaborate on that study?

The one main takeaway is that a major cyclone landfall in Mumbai is possible, although it is not that likely in any given year since it has not happened in the modern history of the city.

What does this mean for our policymakers?

The first one is easy to say, but not to do. The city should have an emergency management plan in place in case there is a serious cyclone. As of now, they do not have one.

You have addressed the U.S. Congress on climate change, but many scientists feel that it is not their job to communicate. From the perspective of speaking to policymakers and how that pushes change, what advice would you give to scientists--especially those in the developing countries where there isn’t a lot of funding for science and there might be a handful of research that focuses on the region?

Sea levels rising higher than expected, says UN varsity

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‘Sea-Level Rise to Make Things Worse In Mumbai Within Decades’

Global warming has led to changes in ocean temperatures causing both sea-level rise and changes in rainfall in India

Disha Shetty

Published: 23 Dec 2019, 1:31 PM IST

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In 2015, India-born author Amitav Ghosh, researching his latest book, wrote to Adam Sobel, an atmospheric scientist at Columbia University in New York. Sobel, 52, studies extreme weather and climate. Could Mumbai be hit by a cyclone, Ghosh asked Sobel.

In his book ‘The Great Derangement: Climate Change and the Unthinkable’, Ghosh looks at coastal cities around the world, questioning why they were built with scant regard to extreme weather events such as cyclones. One of his main arguments is that colonisation disregarded local knowledge of weather.

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‘Sea-Level Rise to Make Things Worse In Mumbai Within Decades’

Global warming has led to changes in ocean temperatures causing both sea-level rise and changes in rainfall in India

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Topics: Climate Change Global Warming Cyclone